Sat TV Trends – 16th Sept 2017

Like all big race days, Andy Newton is on hand with the key TV trends this Saturday from Chester and Doncaster, including the William Hill St Leger

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

1.50 – William Hill Portland Handicap Cl2 5f140y ITV

15/15 – Carried 8-12 or more
13/15 – Won over 6f before
12/15 – Had run 5 or more times that season
12/15 – Winner rated between 95 and 101
12/15 – Came from a double-figure stall
11/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/15 – Won 4 or more times in their career
10/15 – Run at Doncaster previously
8/15 – Unplaced Favourites
7/15 – Placed in their last race
6/15 – Winners aged 5 years-old (inc 6 of last 9 years)
6/15 – Raced in that season’s Great St Wilfrid (Ripon)
4/15 – Raced at Ripon last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Won by the Kevin Ryan yard
3/15 – Won last time out
Captain Colby won the race in 2016
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1

Captain Colby won this race 12 months ago and looks to have another leading chance off a 3lb lower mark. Draw 16 looks ideal for this Ed Walker-trained 5 year-old and has only 8-9 to carry (won with 9-0 last year). But with ALL of the last 15 winners of this race carrying 8-12 or more, plus 12 of the last 15 rated between 95-101 and also coming from a double-figure stall then this helps narrow down the 22 runners a lot. In fact, there are just five standouts based on these key trends with A MOMENTOFMADNESS, HAKAM, LEXINGTON ABBEY, STAKE ACCLAIM and PIPERS NOTE then runners in question. Hakam looks set to go off the bigger price of the five, but in the first-time cheekpieces and with the promising Lewis Edmunds claiming 3lbs then he’s got a lot going for him. A two-month break means he’ll head here fresh after a decent second at Ascot back in July, but his connections will probably be hoping the ground dries out a bit with all his better form on a quicker surface. Pipers Note and Stake Acclaim are both course winners here so command respect, while A Momentofmadness is never far away and looks another banker to be in the mix with Jim Crowley riding. But – if pushed – the booking of Ryan Moore to ride LEXINGTON ABBEY stands out for me. Add in that the Kevin Ryan yard have won this race three times in the last 15 years then that’s a further plus. Draw 15 looks fine too, while a string of recent placed efforts back-up this 6 year-old is in decent order. He’s won on a variety of different ground so no issues there and also looks a better horse this year – after running 10th (beaten 4 ¼ lengths) in this race 12 months ago – plus has a much better draw (15) this time around (was drawn 2 last year).

2.25 – Alan Wood Plumbing Park Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

12/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/14 – Run 3 or more times that season
12/14 – Won 3 or more times before
11/14 – Won over 7f before
11/14 – Won a Group race previously
11/14 – Returned  7/1 or shorter
10/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Run at either Goodwood (5), Newbury (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
10/14 – Unplaced in their most recent race
10/14 – Aged 4 or older
7/14 – Placed horses from stall 1
6/14 – Had run at Doncaster before
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Won by a previous winner of the race
3 Irish-trained winners in the last 8 runnings
Breton Rock won the race in 2016
The average SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

The Aidan O’Brien-trained Spirit Of Valour is the highest-rated in the field so is the one all the others have to aim at and with 50% of the last 14 horses from stall 1 being placed then he’s also got this key trend on his side. We’ve seen three Irish-trained winners in the last 8 runnings. He was, however, well back in the Lennox Stakes last time out though so does have 4 ¾ lengths to find with the winner of that race – BRETON ROCK. David Simcock’s 7 year-old lines-up again here and was also the winner of this prize 12 months ago. Yes, as a Group Two winner he’s got to give 3lbs away to the others, but he won’t mind the ground and wasn’t disgraced when fourth in the Hungerford Stakes last time at Newbury – he ticks a lot of boxes. Nathra was third in that Newbury race and has since run a fair second at Sandown in a Group Three so can be expected to be thereabouts again. The return to 7f is a plus with his form over this trip reading 1-1-1-3, while Frankie Dettori gets the leg-up. Acclaim enters calculations too after running a close sixth in the Lennox and then only just failing to get up in a Group One over in France last time, but has not been the easiest to catch right and is yet to win this term. Godolphin’s Home Of The Brave is rated to go close and after good wins at Leicester and Newmarket is another that raced in the Lennox Stakes this season. He was only beaten ½ a length in that Goodwood race and gets a 3lbs pull this time, so there shouldn’t be a lot between him and the winner Breton Rock again here. But with the selection having proven form with give underfoot and being a proven winner of this race, he’s taken to go close once again with Spirit Of Valour best of the rest.

3.00 – Howcroft Industrial Supplies Champagne Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f ITV

15/16 – Returned  8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Had won over 7f before
14/16 – Won 1 or 2 times previously
13/16 – Favourites placed
13/16 – Won by a Feb or March foal
13/16 – Finished third or better last time out
10/16 – Won last time out
9/16 – Run at Sandown, Newbury, York or the Curragh last time out
8/16 – Raced 3 or more times that season
7/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Won by Godolphin
3/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/16 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard
2/16 – Won by the Mark Johnston yard
2/16 – Won by the Charlie Appleby yard
2/16 – Won by the Saeed Bin Suroor yard
2/16 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/4
Note: 2005 renewal was a dead-heat

The Aidan O’Brien yard send over a couple of runners – Seahenge and Mendelssohn – and if jockey bookings are anything to go on the Ryan Moore-ridden Mendelssohn looks their first string. But as we know things don’t always pan out like that with the Ballydoyle outfit, but anyway these two are probably not a couple of their superstars anyway. The Mark Johnston yard have done well in this race before so their Dream Today will be trying to uphold that record. He was an easy winner on debut at York last month over this trip and with the expected improvement he can go well. Connections clearly like him to feel he can cope with the step up in class and Oisin Murphy is a plus in the saddle. Red Mist was only just touched off by Hey Gaman in the Listed Denford Stakes at Newbury last time out, so there shouldn’t be much between them again here, but all of the above mentioned might have to play second fiddle to the Godolphin runner – MYTHICAL MAGIC. This 2 year-old has done nothing wrong in winning both starts at Ascot and last time out in France when taking a Listed contest in soft ground. There should be more to come too and with the boys in blue having a terrific record in this race (4 from 16) then it’s a contest they clearly love to target. He’s also got some fancy entries, including the Group One Dewhurst Stakes, so will be expected to go well here if he’s going to head there.

3.35 – William Hill St Leger Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m6f132y ITV

14/15 – Had 2 or 3 previous career wins
13/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Placed favourites
12/15 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
11/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Had won a Group race before
11/15 – Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season
10/15 – Had never raced over 1m6f or further before
10/15 – Winning distance of 1 length or more
10/15 – Had won over at least 1m3f before
9/15 – Officially rated 109 to 115
9/15 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
8/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (2 won it)
6/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/15 – USA-bred winners
3/15 – Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won it)
3/15 – Trained by John Gosden
3/15 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
3/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/15 – Ridden by William Buick
2/15 – Winners from stall 1
Godolphin have won the race 6 times
Aidan O’Brien has trained 4 winners of the race
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 8/1

Onto the ‘big one’ and everything is in place for a decent renewal of the final English Classic of the season – the St Leger. With power-house stables – Aidan O’Brien, Sir Michael Stoute and John Gosden – all having runners with live chances then we’ve got all the ingredients for a ‘must-see’ race – oh, and also add Roger Varian’s Defoe, who is seeking a five-timer! The ratings are headed by the O’Brien runner – Capri – and being 4lbs clear of his nearest rival then he’s sure to be popular in the betting. We last saw him winning the Irish Derby from the well-regarded Cracksman by a neck with the Epsom Derby winner – Wings Of Eagles – close-up in third. With the second that day since franking the form, and with this longer trip sure to bring out more improvement then it will be a shock if he’s not going close. He’s got form on all ground types and with Ryan Moore riding he’ll have every assistance from the saddle. They only concern for me though is that with just one win from his last five races he has been prone to finding a few too good in the past. The Roger Varian-trained Defoe is another that punters are sure to latch onto after a string of 1’s next to his name. This 3 year-old has progressed up the ranks well this term to win his last four and is another that looks sure to benefit from the step up in trip. He won with a bit more in-hand than the ¾ of a length winning distance last time at Newbury and seems to act the same on all ground types. If coping with another rise in class is one for the shortlist. Crystal Ocean will be flying the flag for the Stoute yard, but surprisingly they’ve only won the race once before (2008). On a plus though this horse went into many a notebook after landing the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood last time and with that contest often a good guide for the St Leger then that’s another big bonus ahead of his chance. She powered clear that day to win by 3 ½ lengths so the step up in trip will be fine and with just five career runs his improvement should continue and rates a big player for me. In the saddle, Jim Crowley takes over from Ryan Moore, who is committed to ride for Ballydoyle, but he’s stepped in with success this season for the yard in these big races – most notably on Ulysses. So really that leaves us with STRADIVARIUS (e/w). The John Gosden yard have the best recent record of the trainers on show in the race with three wins since 2007 and this looks another typical Leger type for the stable. He landed the Goodwood cup in great style last time over 2m so we know the trip is not going to be an issue and also heads into the race as the second-highest rated in the field. Yes, he got a fair amount of weight last time, but it was still a top performance from a 3 year-old to beat the older horses and with a 46 day break will head here fresh and ready to rumble again. Soft ground is a slight unknown, but breeding (Sea The Stars) suggests it will be fine and the fact he’s won over 2 miles is another good sign that even on softer conditions he’ll be fine. Of the rest, I would not be surprised to see Raheen House out-run his odds after a gutsy win in the Bahrain Trophy last time out at Newmarket. He stayed on well that day over 1m5f so is one of the proven few to go well in-and-around this trip. While the Gosden camp also run the filly Coronet, who will get a handy 3lbs from the others. She won the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot in June and has since not been disgraced behind the classy Enable.

Chester Horse Racing Trends (ITV)

2.05 – 32Red Casino Nursery Handicap Cl3 (2yo 0-95) 5f ITV

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Carried 9-3 or less in weight
7/7 – Foaled in Feb or later
7/7 – Unplaced last time out
6/7 – Had won just once before
6/7 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
6/7 – Drawn in stall 4 or lower
5/7 – Foaled in March or April
5/7 – Officially rated 80-85
5/7 – Unplaced favourites
5/7 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
4/7 – Won from stall 1 or 2
1/7 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 7/1

All of the last second winners carried 9-3 or less in weight, plus were unplaced last time out – so that’s a negative for the likes of Mable Lee, Viscount Loftus and Simmy’s Copshop. Here at Chester the draw is always key and with 6 of the last 7 winners of this race coming from stalls 1-4 then this is great news for Porchy Party (1), Viscount Loftus (2), Mr Greenlight (3) and Falabelle (4). In fact, if you want to narrow that draw stat down a bit then horses from stalls 1 or 2 have won 4 of the last 7. So, of those mentioned the Kevin Ryan-trained FALABELLE ticks a lot of boxes. Drawn in stall 4 that will give this 2 year-old a decent starting pitch, while the Kevin Ryan team are no strangers to winning this either after taking the pot in 2014. She was a good winner two starts ago so knows how to get her head in front and wasn’t disgraced last time in a Listed race at York, when beaten just 4 ¾ lengths. Of the rest, Porchy Party is also feared from stall 1. The Tom Dascombe camp love having winners here on the Roodee and we can expect a bold bid from the front from one of the more experienced juveniles in the race.

2.40 – Stand Cup (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f66y ITV

11/11 – Didn’t win last time out
10/11 – Had won at least twice before
10/11 – Came from the top three in the betting
9/11 – Had raced within the last 3 weeks
9/11 – Had 2 or more runs that season
9/11 – Aged 5 or younger
9/11 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Rated between 102-110
7/11 – Drawn in stall 3 or lower
7/11 – Won at Listed or Group class before
6/11 – Favourites that finished either 1st or 2nd
4/11 – Ran at York last time out
3/11 – Had run at Chester before
3/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Godolphin-owned winners
2/11 – Trained by Pat Chamings
8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 5 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

Only five runners here, but it looks a decent little race. Recent winner – My Reward – will be popular again, but this is another step up in grade and it won’t be easy having to give weight away to these better horses. Solider In Action was a nice winner at Goodwood two starts ago, but failed to build on that in the Ebor last time at York, while Across The Stars is on a bit of a recovery mission after running below par ever since his King Edward VII Stakes win at Royal Ascot in 2016. Duretto is a consistent sort and can go well for the Andrew Balding yard. He’s a proven Group winner so will find this drop into Listed company to his liking and despite having 4 months off has gone well fresh in the past. However, the Ralph Beckett yard too this race 12 months ago and they look to have another good chance – this time with RICH LEGACY. Being a 3 year-old filly she gets bundles of weight from the others and considering she’s rated 101 anyway that will be a big advantage. She’s run well in some top Group 2 and 3 races this season and is another that should find this drop in class a lot easier. Soft ground is a slight worry, but hopefully the ground will dry out a bit before the race. She’s weighted to go close with Josie Gordon booked to ride, while Duretto looks the danger.

3.15 – Handicap Cl3 7f122y ITV

Only 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Carried 8-13 or more
7/7 – Came from stall 6 or higher
6/7 – Aged 4 or older
6/7 – Returned 8/1 or bigger in the betting
5/7 – Carried 9-2 or more
4/7 – Aged 4 years-old
3/7 – Returned a double-figure price
2/7 – Ridden by Franny Norton
2/7 – Trained by Mark Johnston
1/7 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 11/1

It’s a bit odd, but this 7 ½ race hasn’t been a good one for horses drawn low, with ALL of the last seven winners hailing from draws 6 or higher. If this is to be repeated then Dan Troop (1), Shouranour (2), Heir To A Throne (3), Kenstone (4), King’s Pavilion (5) and Ice Slice (6) have this trend to overcome. The Tom Dascombe yard took this race in 2012 and will be trying to follow-up with Calder Prince. From draw 12 he will have to come around the houses, but he acts well on soft ground and despite not winning has not been far away in his last five races. He’s also one of just five 4 year-olds in the race and this age have won 4 of the last 7 runnings of this race. King’s Pavilion had Instant Attraction in behind when these two were first and second at Carlisle just three days ago, but with a weight turn-a-round and over this tighter track that Instant Attraction has course-winning form then he’s taken to reverse that form. But with the winner of this race averaging a price of around 11/1 in recent years then it might be worth chancing the Richard Fahey-trained GABRIAL THE TIGER (e/w). This 5 year-old gets weight all-round and has run well here at Chester many time. Yes, he’s yet to win over this 7 ½ furlong trip, but has gone close over it in the past and Paul Hanagan is a plus in the saddle. The handicapper has also given him a chance off a mark of 76 (last win came off 80) so looks well-treated on that score too. The consistent Calder Prince and Instant Attraction can do best of the rest.

Andy Newton

Andy is a member of the Horse Writers’ Association and an established horse racing expert and tipster. He's been featured in Gambling Online magazine, and as an expert in the Official Wetherbys Cheltenham Festival betting guide since 2011 as well as other leading publications . Andy also has regular columns on, and and specializes in big race trends and stats.
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