Royal Ascot 2012 Day 5 Preview

I am at a memorial service today so won’t be able to do the live post that we have done during the week. However I wanted to make sure that you had access to my reviews. As you know, the weather has made it a difficult week. I am writing this before the Friday’s racing has finished so I don’t yet know how we did.

I am going to be basing this analysis on a soft going but please bear in mind that if the weather changes then this would change the analysis.

2.30 Chesham Stakes

This race is going to be almost impossible to analyse without being able to watch the markets live. Cruck Realta looks to be the strongest over the potential soft going but the figures aren’t great. The speed that Lovely Pass put in towards the end of May cannot be ignored even though it was on the all-weather. There is a high possibility that this won’t be transferred onto the flat, especially with a softer going.

Downright Dizzie, Move To Strike and St Paul De Vence I don’t have enough data to make a decision on and so would need to use the live market to help in an assessment.

With this lack of information I would suggest not betting on the race but if I had to choose from them I would be going for Cruck Realta each-way. If any of the other 4 runners were short in the market though I would also strongly consider placing bets on them as well. This may be a race to just go for the place market if you want to get involved.

3.05 Hardwicke Stakes

I have reduced this field to the following potentials…

Hunter’s Light, Jakkalberry, Red Cadeaux, Sea Moon, Testosterone

Of these, Jakkalberry and Testosterone I do not have enough data on and so would be looking to the market to make my final decisions.

From the rest Red Cadeaux looks to be the strongest. Not only has he received the best figures over a soft going but also has my highest contender strength rating and speed regression level. All this points to a strong possibility.

I will be removing Hunter’s Light from contention as I don’t think that he is going to perform over the distance and ground conditions.

I would be looking to bet on Red Cadeaux for the win, dependent on odds I would take an each-way if worthwhile. Sea Moon I think has a good chance of taking a place and would be looking to the place market for him.

If either Jakkalberry or Testosterone are short in the market then I would add them into my bets.

3.45 Diamond Jubilee Stakes

The feature race of the day is much anticipated with Black Caviar running. There is not much to put up against Black Caviar and unsurprisingly his odds are going to be very short.

I don’t like to bet on horses with odds this short in these major festivals, especially when the conditions are so volatile. For that reason I wouldn’t bet on Black Caviar.

Of interest is Pastoral Player and Society Rock. I think that Pastoral Player has more potential in this race and could be a solid each-way bet. If the ground doesn’t upset him too much he has every chance. Society Rock has a very strong contender strength and top speed regression prediction.

I would look at both as each-way bets.

4.25 Wokingham Stakes

A big race with 31 declared runners. Using the same technique I have used for all the other races I am going to reduce the numbers of runners based on proven performance over a soft going, which I am predicting the ground to be. Don’t forget that if this changes then you would need to reconsider the analysis.

A lot of the runners have run over softer ground and there is not much to split between them, having gone through them and removed those who are unlikely to perform on the going I am still left with 21 runners.

I am going to remove another four runners who, at the time of writings, are extreme outsiders.

This still leaves us with 17 runners and this race is really wide open. In order to narrow down I am going to remove any runners that have shown a decline in speed and have poor contender strengths. I will also remove any runner who has not had a good race for a considerable length of time.

Doing this removes another 4 runners leaving us with 13 possible contenders. I am now going to look for those that indicate they may be the strongest.

I have been very strict with finding the contenders and I am left with three potential bets in Colonel Mak, King Of Jazz and Maarek.

With such an open race I would want the possibility of places for all these runners and would be looking to take 20/80 bets on all of them.

5.00 Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap

My shortlist in this race is made up of seven runners. Of these Anatolian and Camborne look to be the strongest having performed well over the same conditions.

Qaraaba is of interest but unless he gets the pace earlier in the race then he will fade. However he may have learnt from yesterday and should be considered as well.

The connection stats strongly favour License To Kill who has also shown he can run on these conditions. This race is about two furlongs longer than the average distance he has raced over but that shouldn’t cause a problem.

It is going to be hard to pick between these runners but my choices would be Anatolian who should get a good run. I would look for an each-way or place on Qaraaba in the hope he gets up sooner than yesterday. Camborne I would be wanting to see on the day as his performances can be volatile and seeing how he is taking on the day will be important.

License To Kill would also be a part of my bet as an each-way or place contender.

5.35 Queen Alexandra Stakes

Another big race with 20 runners declared. It is a long race, especially over soft going. There are some runners in this race that have performed well over hurdles. It is common not to want to mix form but in this situation I am going to. We have a long race over soft ground conditions and the stamina required could suit these hurdlers.

Doing this has allowed me to shrink a big field to just 3 potential runners!

These runners are…

American Trilogy, Bruslini, Overturn

American Trilogy and Bruslini are used to running longer distances so they will need to get the pace right to take the lead. Overturn is used to running shorter distances and so the same applies.

However, I would be looking at a dutch bet across all three with place bets as well if the odds are generous enough. I would also be monitoring the market to make sure that none of them have vast odds.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.
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