Advice

Profitable Trainers In May

Guest post by David Renham from Racing Trends

This month I am looking at trainer performance in May on the flat. Trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of May with data taken from 2004 to 2009.

May sees the flat season clicking into gear with the first classics, coupled with numerous meetings on some days (up to 5 or 6 on some days).

Firstly let us look at all races.

All races (May 04-09) – 80 runs+ (minimum SR 14%)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Sir M Stoute 110 392 28.1 -£4.77 -1.2
A O’Brien 20 85 23.5 +£36.55 +43.0
H Cecil 38 186 20.4 -£17.87 -9.6
P Chapple-Hyam 29 143 20.3 -£7.38 -5.2
Sir M Prescott 17 86 19.8 +£29.08 +33.8
M Jarvis 61 311 19.6 -£23.46 -7.5
J Noseda 43 226 19.0 -£69.24 -30.6
S Bin Suroor 36 198 18.2 -£47.25 -23.9
W Haggas 45 248 18.2 +£9.63 +3.9
R Charlton 37 210 17.6 -£46.78 -22.3
J Gosden 64 373 17.2 -£79.62 -21.4
M Tregoning 23 137 16.8 -£5.86 -4.3
L Cumani 37 222 16.7 -£5.16 -2.3
M Quinlan 16 96 16.7 +£76.22 +79.4
Mrs A Duffield 26 164 15.9 +£43.08 +26.3
C Cox 26 170 15.3 +£12.76 +7.5
T Barron 51 338 15.1 +£2.90 +0.9
M Wallace 15 100 15.0 -£28.16 -28.2
M Johnston 104 704 14.8 -£172.18 -24.5
E O’Neill 16 109 14.7 -£30.42 -27.9
R Cowell 17 116 14.7 +£19.67 +17.0
E Johnson Houghton 13 89 14.6 +£13.38 +15.0
B Hills 69 475 14.5 -£110.59 -23.3
D Simcock 16 112 14.3 -£7.10 -6.3
P Makin 15 105 14.3 +£96.38 +91.8
E Dunlop 45 319 14.1 -£74.60 -23.4

Sir Michael Stoute has a good overall record in May from a large number of runners. However, before we get too excited, let us do a yearly breakdown for his runners:

Year Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
2004 15 51 29.4 +£32.65 +64.0
2005 16 54 29.6 +£12.19 +22.6
2006 29 81 35.8 -£4.36 -5.4
2007 18 77 23.4 -£17.09 -22.2
2008 11 63 17.5 -£24.76 -39.3
2009 21 66 31.8 -£3.40 -5.2

2004 and 2005 were profitable for Stoute in May, but the last 4 have not been. This is despite outstanding strike rates in 206 and 2009. The market seems to have this angle ‘covered’. Although his record with favourites has been very solid, 74 wins from 148 runners (SR 50.0%) for a profit of £17.73 (ROI +12.0%), he has made a profit with favourites in May 5 times out of 6.

As always it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

All races (May 04-09) – 80 runs+ (SR 5.5% or lower)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
J Bridger 8 148 5.4 -£38.50 -26.0
B Palling 7 132 5.3 -£63.67 -48.2
J Bradley 26 501 5.2 -£227.60 -45.4
R Hodges 5 101 5.0 -£70.47 -69.8
J Jenkins 8 162 4.9 -£95.88 -59.2
M Hammond 4 81 4.9 -£36.00 -44.4
C Dwyer 4 83 4.8 -£48.50 -58.4
J Balding 5 104 4.8 -£56.50 -54.3
R Guest 4 84 4.8 -£53.00 -63.1
J Portman 5 107 4.7 -£26.63 -24.9
M Brittain 7 151 4.6 -£47.17 -31.2
J R Best 7 158 4.4 -£82.50 -52.2
R Hollinshead 8 197 4.1 -£110.50 -56.1
R Barr 4 100 4.0 -£46.00 -46.0
Mrs P Dutfield 4 105 3.8 -£78.00 -74.3
A Berry 12 317 3.8 -£145.92 -46.0
M Wigham 3 80 3.8 -£68.50 -85.6
M Polglase 3 85 3.5 -£66.00 -77.7
Mrs C Dunnett 5 144 3.5 -£77.00 -53.5
S Williams 4 116 3.5 -£96.00 -82.8
Miss J Feilden 3 98 3.1 +£9.57 +9.8
P Grayson 3 104 2.9 -£70.00 -67.3
P McEntee 2 96 2.1 -£83.75 -87.2
N Wilson 2 98 2.0 -£72.00 -73.5
M Mullineaux 1 85 1.2 -£68.00 -80.0
Miss A Stokell 0 80 0.0 -£80.00 -100.0

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month. It is surprising to see John Best in there – his overall strike rate is nearer 10% so his May results have clearly been poor in recent years.

As I have said many times in the past, with any general stats such as these it is often best to split them into more specific race-types. Let us look at 2yo maiden races in May since 2004. I have included all trainers with at least 20 runners:

All 2yo maiden races (May 04-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 16%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
J Noseda 9 34 26.5 -£4.21 -12.4
B Smart 12 46 26.1 +£23.91 +52.0
M Quinlan 7 27 25.9 +£33.32 +123.4
M Channon 33 141 23.4 +£20.74 +14.7
J Osborne 8 42 19.1 +£11.95 +28.5
T Dascombe 4 21 19.1 -£2.83 -13.5
R Hannon 42 222 18.9 +£9.72 +4.4
E Dunlop 6 32 18.8 -£11.25 -35.2
M Johnston 21 115 18.3 -£13.25 -11.5
J J Quinn 4 22 18.2 +£11.38 +51.7
E O’Neill 6 34 17.7 -£4.50 -13.2
K R Burke 10 57 17.5 +£24.00 +42.1
M Tregoning 4 23 17.4 +£5.75 +25.0
J Howard Johnson 5 29 17.2 +£13.36 +46.1
B Hills 9 54 16.7 -£28.91 -53.5
M Bell 6 36 16.7 -£17.83 -49.5
T Barron 5 30 16.7 +£0.85 +2.8
J Portman 4 24 16.7 +£44.38 +184.9
R Fahey 9 56 16.1 +£42.00 +75.0
Mrs L Stubbs 4 25 16.0 +£59.75 +239.0
M Jarvis 3 21 14.3 -£9.17 -43.7
P Cole 7 50 14.0 -£13.04 -26.1
P Winkworth 3 23 13.0 +£24.00 +104.4
K Ryan 14 112 12.5 -£12.27 -11.0
D Nicholls 4 32 12.5 +£35.00 +109.4
A Balding 3 26 11.5 -£17.25 -66.4
J Gosden 4 36 11.1 -£13.75 -38.2
B Meehan 8 78 10.3 -£35.81 -45.9
P Haslam 4 40 10.0 -£9.75 -24.4
P Blockley 2 23 8.7 -£10.75 -46.7
W Muir 2 23 8.7 +£4.00 +17.4
E McMahon 2 28 7.1 -£12.13 -43.3
P Evans 4 58 6.9 -£1.75 -3.0
M Easterby 3 52 5.8 +£0.00 +0.0
T Easterby 7 125 5.6 -£96.58 -77.3
P Midgley 2 37 5.4 +£43.00 +116.2
W Turner 2 38 5.3 +£14.53 +38.2
R Beckett 2 40 5.0 -£20.50 -51.3
I Wood 1 21 4.8 -£15.00 -71.4
J R Best 1 21 4.8 -£17.50 -83.3
J Jenkins 1 23 4.4 -£8.00 -34.8
C Brittain 1 26 3.9 -£20.50 -78.9
Mrs A Duffield 1 27 3.7 -£23.50 -87.0
B Millman 1 31 3.2 -£25.00 -80.7
J Moore 1 32 3.1 -£6.00 -18.8
M Brittain 1 35 2.9 -£31.50 -90.0
A Berry 0 53 0.0 -£53.00 -100.0
S Kirk 0 38 0.0 -£38.00 -100.0
N Tinkler 0 34 0.0 -£34.00 -100.0
J  Hills 0 32 0.0 -£32.00 -100.0
Mrs P Dutfield 0 24 0.0 -£24.00 -100.0
J Weymes 0 23 0.0 -£23.00 -100.0
J Bradley 0 22 0.0 -£22.00 -100.0
A Mccabe 0 21 0.0 -£21.00 -100.0

This table should be quite useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. In addition here are some addition 2yo maiden facts:

–      Bryan Smart is 5 wins from 7 (+ 2 placed) at Musselburgh;

–      Richard Hannon has performed particularly well with Irish bred runners – 28 winners from 121 runners (SR 23.1%) for a profit of £41.13 (ROI +34.0%);

–      Mick Channon has made a profit in all 6 Mays with runners that had previously run;

–      Mark Johnston has a poor record with favourites, but combining second and third favourites has produced 11 winners from 42 (SR 26.2%) for a profit of £19.08 (ROI +45.4%);

–      Kevin Ryan has a 15% strike rate with his debutants in May compared with only 9.6% with horses that have previously run;

–      Tim Easterby has scored with just 1 debutant (he has 66 maidens making their debut).

Hopefully this article has given you some useful facts and figures for the month of May.

Dave Renham is a leading uk horse racing researcher. He has worked in the past for the RacingPost and the Racing and Football Outlook newspaper. His own website at www.racingtrends.co.uk is a great spot for finding out about profitable angles for your UK horse racing betting.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

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