Guest post by David Renham from Racing Trends
This month I am looking at trainer performance in May on the flat. Trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of May with data taken from 2004 to 2009.
May sees the flat season clicking into gear with the first classics, coupled with numerous meetings on some days (up to 5 or 6 on some days).
Firstly let us look at all races.
All races (May 04-09) – 80 runs+ (minimum SR 14%)
| Trainer | Wins | Runs | Strike Rate (%) | Profit | ROI (%) |
| Sir M Stoute | 110 | 392 | 28.1 | -£4.77 | -1.2 |
| A O’Brien | 20 | 85 | 23.5 | +£36.55 | +43.0 |
| H Cecil | 38 | 186 | 20.4 | -£17.87 | -9.6 |
| P Chapple-Hyam | 29 | 143 | 20.3 | -£7.38 | -5.2 |
| Sir M Prescott | 17 | 86 | 19.8 | +£29.08 | +33.8 |
| M Jarvis | 61 | 311 | 19.6 | -£23.46 | -7.5 |
| J Noseda | 43 | 226 | 19.0 | -£69.24 | -30.6 |
| S Bin Suroor | 36 | 198 | 18.2 | -£47.25 | -23.9 |
| W Haggas | 45 | 248 | 18.2 | +£9.63 | +3.9 |
| R Charlton | 37 | 210 | 17.6 | -£46.78 | -22.3 |
| J Gosden | 64 | 373 | 17.2 | -£79.62 | -21.4 |
| M Tregoning | 23 | 137 | 16.8 | -£5.86 | -4.3 |
| L Cumani | 37 | 222 | 16.7 | -£5.16 | -2.3 |
| M Quinlan | 16 | 96 | 16.7 | +£76.22 | +79.4 |
| Mrs A Duffield | 26 | 164 | 15.9 | +£43.08 | +26.3 |
| C Cox | 26 | 170 | 15.3 | +£12.76 | +7.5 |
| T Barron | 51 | 338 | 15.1 | +£2.90 | +0.9 |
| M Wallace | 15 | 100 | 15.0 | -£28.16 | -28.2 |
| M Johnston | 104 | 704 | 14.8 | -£172.18 | -24.5 |
| E O’Neill | 16 | 109 | 14.7 | -£30.42 | -27.9 |
| R Cowell | 17 | 116 | 14.7 | +£19.67 | +17.0 |
| E Johnson Houghton | 13 | 89 | 14.6 | +£13.38 | +15.0 |
| B Hills | 69 | 475 | 14.5 | -£110.59 | -23.3 |
| D Simcock | 16 | 112 | 14.3 | -£7.10 | -6.3 |
| P Makin | 15 | 105 | 14.3 | +£96.38 | +91.8 |
| E Dunlop | 45 | 319 | 14.1 | -£74.60 | -23.4 |
Sir Michael Stoute has a good overall record in May from a large number of runners. However, before we get too excited, let us do a yearly breakdown for his runners:
| Year | Wins | Runs | Strike Rate (%) | Profit | ROI (%) |
| 2004 | 15 | 51 | 29.4 | +£32.65 | +64.0 |
| 2005 | 16 | 54 | 29.6 | +£12.19 | +22.6 |
| 2006 | 29 | 81 | 35.8 | -£4.36 | -5.4 |
| 2007 | 18 | 77 | 23.4 | -£17.09 | -22.2 |
| 2008 | 11 | 63 | 17.5 | -£24.76 | -39.3 |
| 2009 | 21 | 66 | 31.8 | -£3.40 | -5.2 |
2004 and 2005 were profitable for Stoute in May, but the last 4 have not been. This is despite outstanding strike rates in 206 and 2009. The market seems to have this angle ‘covered’. Although his record with favourites has been very solid, 74 wins from 148 runners (SR 50.0%) for a profit of £17.73 (ROI +12.0%), he has made a profit with favourites in May 5 times out of 6.
As always it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:
All races (May 04-09) – 80 runs+ (SR 5.5% or lower)
| Trainer | Wins | Runs | Strike Rate (%) | Profit | ROI (%) |
| J Bridger | 8 | 148 | 5.4 | -£38.50 | -26.0 |
| B Palling | 7 | 132 | 5.3 | -£63.67 | -48.2 |
| J Bradley | 26 | 501 | 5.2 | -£227.60 | -45.4 |
| R Hodges | 5 | 101 | 5.0 | -£70.47 | -69.8 |
| J Jenkins | 8 | 162 | 4.9 | -£95.88 | -59.2 |
| M Hammond | 4 | 81 | 4.9 | -£36.00 | -44.4 |
| C Dwyer | 4 | 83 | 4.8 | -£48.50 | -58.4 |
| J Balding | 5 | 104 | 4.8 | -£56.50 | -54.3 |
| R Guest | 4 | 84 | 4.8 | -£53.00 | -63.1 |
| J Portman | 5 | 107 | 4.7 | -£26.63 | -24.9 |
| M Brittain | 7 | 151 | 4.6 | -£47.17 | -31.2 |
| J R Best | 7 | 158 | 4.4 | -£82.50 | -52.2 |
| R Hollinshead | 8 | 197 | 4.1 | -£110.50 | -56.1 |
| R Barr | 4 | 100 | 4.0 | -£46.00 | -46.0 |
| Mrs P Dutfield | 4 | 105 | 3.8 | -£78.00 | -74.3 |
| A Berry | 12 | 317 | 3.8 | -£145.92 | -46.0 |
| M Wigham | 3 | 80 | 3.8 | -£68.50 | -85.6 |
| M Polglase | 3 | 85 | 3.5 | -£66.00 | -77.7 |
| Mrs C Dunnett | 5 | 144 | 3.5 | -£77.00 | -53.5 |
| S Williams | 4 | 116 | 3.5 | -£96.00 | -82.8 |
| Miss J Feilden | 3 | 98 | 3.1 | +£9.57 | +9.8 |
| P Grayson | 3 | 104 | 2.9 | -£70.00 | -67.3 |
| P McEntee | 2 | 96 | 2.1 | -£83.75 | -87.2 |
| N Wilson | 2 | 98 | 2.0 | -£72.00 | -73.5 |
| M Mullineaux | 1 | 85 | 1.2 | -£68.00 | -80.0 |
| Miss A Stokell | 0 | 80 | 0.0 | -£80.00 | -100.0 |
Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month. It is surprising to see John Best in there – his overall strike rate is nearer 10% so his May results have clearly been poor in recent years.
As I have said many times in the past, with any general stats such as these it is often best to split them into more specific race-types. Let us look at 2yo maiden races in May since 2004. I have included all trainers with at least 20 runners:
All 2yo maiden races (May 04-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 16%+)
| Trainer | Wins | Runs | Strike Rate (%) | Profit | ROI (%) |
| J Noseda | 9 | 34 | 26.5 | -£4.21 | -12.4 |
| B Smart | 12 | 46 | 26.1 | +£23.91 | +52.0 |
| M Quinlan | 7 | 27 | 25.9 | +£33.32 | +123.4 |
| M Channon | 33 | 141 | 23.4 | +£20.74 | +14.7 |
| J Osborne | 8 | 42 | 19.1 | +£11.95 | +28.5 |
| T Dascombe | 4 | 21 | 19.1 | -£2.83 | -13.5 |
| R Hannon | 42 | 222 | 18.9 | +£9.72 | +4.4 |
| E Dunlop | 6 | 32 | 18.8 | -£11.25 | -35.2 |
| M Johnston | 21 | 115 | 18.3 | -£13.25 | -11.5 |
| J J Quinn | 4 | 22 | 18.2 | +£11.38 | +51.7 |
| E O’Neill | 6 | 34 | 17.7 | -£4.50 | -13.2 |
| K R Burke | 10 | 57 | 17.5 | +£24.00 | +42.1 |
| M Tregoning | 4 | 23 | 17.4 | +£5.75 | +25.0 |
| J Howard Johnson | 5 | 29 | 17.2 | +£13.36 | +46.1 |
| B Hills | 9 | 54 | 16.7 | -£28.91 | -53.5 |
| M Bell | 6 | 36 | 16.7 | -£17.83 | -49.5 |
| T Barron | 5 | 30 | 16.7 | +£0.85 | +2.8 |
| J Portman | 4 | 24 | 16.7 | +£44.38 | +184.9 |
| R Fahey | 9 | 56 | 16.1 | +£42.00 | +75.0 |
| Mrs L Stubbs | 4 | 25 | 16.0 | +£59.75 | +239.0 |
| M Jarvis | 3 | 21 | 14.3 | -£9.17 | -43.7 |
| P Cole | 7 | 50 | 14.0 | -£13.04 | -26.1 |
| P Winkworth | 3 | 23 | 13.0 | +£24.00 | +104.4 |
| K Ryan | 14 | 112 | 12.5 | -£12.27 | -11.0 |
| D Nicholls | 4 | 32 | 12.5 | +£35.00 | +109.4 |
| A Balding | 3 | 26 | 11.5 | -£17.25 | -66.4 |
| J Gosden | 4 | 36 | 11.1 | -£13.75 | -38.2 |
| B Meehan | 8 | 78 | 10.3 | -£35.81 | -45.9 |
| P Haslam | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | -£9.75 | -24.4 |
| P Blockley | 2 | 23 | 8.7 | -£10.75 | -46.7 |
| W Muir | 2 | 23 | 8.7 | +£4.00 | +17.4 |
| E McMahon | 2 | 28 | 7.1 | -£12.13 | -43.3 |
| P Evans | 4 | 58 | 6.9 | -£1.75 | -3.0 |
| M Easterby | 3 | 52 | 5.8 | +£0.00 | +0.0 |
| T Easterby | 7 | 125 | 5.6 | -£96.58 | -77.3 |
| P Midgley | 2 | 37 | 5.4 | +£43.00 | +116.2 |
| W Turner | 2 | 38 | 5.3 | +£14.53 | +38.2 |
| R Beckett | 2 | 40 | 5.0 | -£20.50 | -51.3 |
| I Wood | 1 | 21 | 4.8 | -£15.00 | -71.4 |
| J R Best | 1 | 21 | 4.8 | -£17.50 | -83.3 |
| J Jenkins | 1 | 23 | 4.4 | -£8.00 | -34.8 |
| C Brittain | 1 | 26 | 3.9 | -£20.50 | -78.9 |
| Mrs A Duffield | 1 | 27 | 3.7 | -£23.50 | -87.0 |
| B Millman | 1 | 31 | 3.2 | -£25.00 | -80.7 |
| J Moore | 1 | 32 | 3.1 | -£6.00 | -18.8 |
| M Brittain | 1 | 35 | 2.9 | -£31.50 | -90.0 |
| A Berry | 0 | 53 | 0.0 | -£53.00 | -100.0 |
| S Kirk | 0 | 38 | 0.0 | -£38.00 | -100.0 |
| N Tinkler | 0 | 34 | 0.0 | -£34.00 | -100.0 |
| J Hills | 0 | 32 | 0.0 | -£32.00 | -100.0 |
| Mrs P Dutfield | 0 | 24 | 0.0 | -£24.00 | -100.0 |
| J Weymes | 0 | 23 | 0.0 | -£23.00 | -100.0 |
| J Bradley | 0 | 22 | 0.0 | -£22.00 | -100.0 |
| A Mccabe | 0 | 21 | 0.0 | -£21.00 | -100.0 |
This table should be quite useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. In addition here are some addition 2yo maiden facts:
– Bryan Smart is 5 wins from 7 (+ 2 placed) at Musselburgh;
– Richard Hannon has performed particularly well with Irish bred runners – 28 winners from 121 runners (SR 23.1%) for a profit of £41.13 (ROI +34.0%);
– Mick Channon has made a profit in all 6 Mays with runners that had previously run;
– Mark Johnston has a poor record with favourites, but combining second and third favourites has produced 11 winners from 42 (SR 26.2%) for a profit of £19.08 (ROI +45.4%);
– Kevin Ryan has a 15% strike rate with his debutants in May compared with only 9.6% with horses that have previously run;
– Tim Easterby has scored with just 1 debutant (he has 66 maidens making their debut).
Hopefully this article has given you some useful facts and figures for the month of May.
Dave Renham is a leading uk horse racing researcher. He has worked in the past for the RacingPost and the Racing and Football Outlook newspaper. His own website at www.racingtrends.co.uk is a great spot for finding out about profitable angles for your UK horse racing betting.
