Following on from my last article about pace analysis, today we’re going to look at how we can use track pace bias to determine whether or not a horse should be a selection or not. This is an advanced method of handicapping which most people don’t use, which means that it can give us an excellent edge in our betting.
In order for us to change our selections from our pace analysis, a track must have a very strong bias. It’s very easy in all forms of horse racing analysis to change selections due to finding out new information, when often this new information doesn’t have a big impact on the way a horse will run. The biggest impact it has is on the way that “we think” a horse will run.
This trips up a lot of bettors who change their selections from the winner to another runner for something that shouldn’t have been significant enough to warrant the change. So, we don’t want to be changing our selections for anything less than something significant!
I’m going to give you the guidelines to how you should apply your track bias in different types of races. This is simply broken down into two different groups. Tracks that have a strong early pace and those that don’t. Using the different types of races from the previous article, we’re going to look at when we may want to change our selections for track bias.
Races With A Strong Early Pace
When there is a strong early pace on the track then in a fast pace race nothing changes. If we have a single strong leader type horse then this is the horse that is most likely to win the race. If there are multiple leader type horses then they are most likely going to burn each other out trying to get to the front, and none of them will finish in the frame. When this happens the race is most likely to be won by a strong closing horse.
Again, in Lone Fast Pace Races nothing changes. A good leader type horse will be most likely to win the race. The same is also true for True Run Races. Leaders and Early Pressers are the horses with the strongest chance on tracks with a strong early pace.
In Slow Pace Races being run on a track with a strong early pace bias then the horse with the strongest leader ability becomes the most serious threat. In these races a mid-pack horse that has more leader ability than the other runners can get to the front of the field and take the race from there. Watch out for these!
Races With A Weak Early Pace
In a Fast Pace Race on a track with a weak early pace is likely to cause the leader type horses a lot of difficulty. These horses seldom finish in the frame in these races as they tire well before the end of the race.
In a Lone Fast Pace Race then the leader horse is likely to still be able to hang on to the lead as it isn’t contending with other leaders in a battle for the front. But, the leader horse MUST be a strong leader otherwise it is going to struggle.
True Run Races on tracks with a weak early pace are likely to favour the mid-pack and closing horse. The preference is for a strong mid-pack runner rather than a strong closer but if there is a strong closer and no strong mid-pack runners then the closer would be the best option. The best mid-pack and closers in these races are normally the ones to finish in the frame.
In a Slow Pace Race a track with a weak early pace bias has almost no effect on any runners except for the leaders. It will make it much harder for the leader type horses to get into any serious contention in the race.
Once you’ve been through a race and done your pace analysis then you can look and see if the track has a strong/weak bias. Don’t forget it must be very strong/weak in order for us to want to even consider changing our selections. But if it is then use these guidelines to determine whether you should remove a horse from your betting slip or add another one in!
Next time I’m going to look at how you can create your own pace ratings.
all good stuff