Guest article written by Paul Micelli
Last week we started to look at a winning strategy for betting on tennis. The first part was an introduction into how we were going to find winners and the second part looked at the draw. The third part of the Outright Tennis Betting Winning Strategy takes a look at the one major influencing factor that can have a marked effect on all types of sports betting. Form should always be a consideration in most sports, especially when it is used in conjunction with the splitting down of the draw. In this particular instance, the form that needs to be applied to our earlier efforts is very similar to the ‘Course and Distance’ ratings applied in horse racing and uses previous performances in a particular tournament to further improve the chances of selecting an outright winner. However, there will also be other factors to consider.
It must be remembered that major tournaments provide ranking points and effectively, any player returning to a tournament after performing well the previous year will have ranking points to defend. This immediately brings the factor of motivation into play because rankings provide the basis for income, tournament seeding and endorsement earnings. Players will always view tournaments where they have previously performed well as an opportunity to be successful.
Moving on, good form in a tournament also indicates that a player is happy with the surface, the conditions, the venue and the climate. This often sees certain players targeting a particular tournament as their best chance of securing a title for the year, especially if their previous good form goes back several years.
Sports betting enthusiasts should not be put off by the fact that an individual player has not previously won a particular tournament. A consistent run to the quarter-final and semi-final stages over a period of several years shows the potential for an eventual tournament win. Naturally, trends cannot always be considered on their own merits and if a player has a reputation for choking in the later stages of other tournaments, there will always be the possibility of them doing so again. Form needs to be evaluated with a certain level of structure but there will be times when the sports betting enthusiast needs to apply common sense to their selections as well.
The progress of Mikhail Youzhny in the Rotterdam 2010 AMN AMRO tournament provides a great example of how form can help produce the best outright selection. Youzhny had previously won the tournament in 2007, had made the quarter-finals in 2008 and had reached the doubles final in the same year. His form was supported by an excellent draw and five previous indoor final appearances where the Russian had gone on to win titles twice. The attractive post-draw price of 20-1 made Youznhy an excellent each-way bet and he duly reached the final, only to have to retire injured in the second set.
The amalgamation of a good draw and excellent previous form were accurate factors in indicating an outright winner for this particular tournament. If the potential to progress from an individual quarter of the draw can be matched with a recognisable track record of success, the process of selection can be made much easier.
