Micro Angles – Mark Johnston Goodwood Festival

horse racing

Trainer Mark Johnston likes to have a winner or two at this meeting. Since 2012 he has had 99 runners, with 15 winning and a further 23 placing in handicaps. If you had backed each of those runners you would have made a level stakes profit of 78.88pts with a win strike a respectable 15%. As ever we can improve that by adding a couple of logical filters:

Race Class: Class 2
Jockey: Joe Fanning or Silvestre De Sousa
Odds SP: 20/1 & under

9 winners from 30 runners
30% strike rate
+72.5 units profit to win
Advantage of 169%
16 placed for a strike rate of 53%
+99.05 each-way profit
+93.31 place profit at Betfair SP

Possibly interesting, if you ignore the jockey filter but concentrate on those of his runners returning from a 46+ day break gives – 3 winners from 6 runners 50% +43. A small sample size granted but shows that a recent run isn’t a negative for the trainer’s runners in Class 2 handicaps here.

I will be adding two further micro angles in next week’s column. For those of you who subscribe to the Eyecatcher Pro Service, I will add any qualifiers, from the above system and the previous micro angles given, onto the software when they run.

John Burke

I have a MA in International Politics and having spent a number of years working in political campaigning but I eventually I realised that politics was not the world where I wanted to work I had been interested in horse racing since the late 1980s but in the early years I was merely just betting and watching racing like most people as a bit of fun and a hobby, then the hobby becomes a passion and that’s what happened to me with horse racing. I soon realised that to make money from my hobby I had to learn as much as I could about the sport and betting in general. The whole process took time but after a number of successful years of betting, I decided in 2011 to take the plunge, gave up my full time day job and decided to bet on horse racing as a part time business and I haven’t looked back since. I like to specialise in the better class of races and I love to solve the puzzles posed by big field handicaps the latter races often provide punters with great value betting opportunities. Whilst most of my time is spent reviewing previous races I like to keep things as simple as possible as even the biggest field handicaps can usually be pruned down to half a dozen strong contenders with the right sort of approach.
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