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Micro-Angles – Autumn National Hunt Horses

Photo of John Burke John BurkeSeptember 28, 2017
352 1 minute read

Something new, as I look at two horses worth noting in the autumn: Blue Kascade & Thomas Brown.

1. Blue Kascade’s career record is –

5 wins from 29 runs

Strike Rate 17%

SP Loss -5.75

8 placed

Place Strike Rate 28%

But his career record in October & November is –

4 wins from 7 runs

Strike Rate 57%

SP Profit +10.25

4 placed

and just for good measure, he is 4 wins from 4 runs when racing 2m 4 ½ f +. The Sandy Thomson trained 10-year-old’s last win came at Musselburgh last November and he starts the new campaign off a 3lb lower mark.

2. Thomas Brown trained by Harry Fry has a very good career win record –

7 winners from 19 runs

Strike Rate 37%

SP Profit +3.18

8 placed

Place Strike Rate 42%.

Six of those wins have come on good to soft whilst he is 1 win from 8 runs 2 places on soft or heavy, He looks a horse that needs a decent break between his races as he is 0 wins from 7 runs 1 place when racing within 30 days of his last start. However, he does go very well after a long layoff 3 wins from 3 runs when racing after 180+ days since his last start. The 8-year-old is 4 wins from 6 runs 67% +5.33 4 places in October & November with form figures 411211. His starts the new season of a mark 138 which is just 1lb higher than for his last win at Aintree last November.

Photo of John Burke John BurkeSeptember 28, 2017
352 1 minute read
Photo of John Burke

John Burke

I have a MA in International Politics and having spent a number of years working in political campaigning but I eventually I realised that politics was not the world where I wanted to work I had been interested in horse racing since the late 1980s but in the early years I was merely just betting and watching racing like most people as a bit of fun and a hobby, then the hobby becomes a passion and that’s what happened to me with horse racing. I soon realised that to make money from my hobby I had to learn as much as I could about the sport and betting in general. The whole process took time but after a number of successful years of betting, I decided in 2011 to take the plunge, gave up my full time day job and decided to bet on horse racing as a part time business and I haven’t looked back since. I like to specialise in the better class of races and I love to solve the puzzles posed by big field handicaps the latter races often provide punters with great value betting opportunities. Whilst most of my time is spent reviewing previous races I like to keep things as simple as possible as even the biggest field handicaps can usually be pruned down to half a dozen strong contenders with the right sort of approach.
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