Arrogate will become the world record prize money holder if winning the Dubai World Cup at Meydan on Saturday. Nothing is certain in racing as we know with Douvan at Cheltenham but odds of 1/3 do not reflect the dominance and advantage in the ratings held by the favourite. Arrogate can deliver for the money buyers and short priced operators who see a 33% return on investment an opportunity not to miss.
It has been common when there is an odds-on horse in a race to offer one-sixth the odds for horses to make the frame. Most bookmakers are settling bets at one fifth the odds for the first three in the Dubai World Cup and those place terms will attract some of the each way thieves. However, you are giving away the win part of your stake because Arrogate looks rock solid so a better option is to bet place only at adjusted odds.
So, we have established the method to beat the bookies in the Dubai Gold Cup but in practice, the difficult part is identifying a horse to make one of the two payout places up for grabs because Arrogate wins the race. The horse has won the inaugural Pegasus World Cup and Breeders’ Cup Classic on his last two starts so looks nailed on to complete a unique treble on Saturday in Dubai. The trick is now finding the horses to finish in second and third place.
Keen Ice looks a massive contender if you take the defeat of American Pharoah on face value. Keen Ice beat the horse who had just won the US Triple Crown in 2015 but that was after American Pharoah had won the three American Classics in the space of six weeks. The value of the form is questionable when Keen Ice upset the big favourite so we should look elsewhere to find the animals best equipped to get nearest to Arrogate at the end of the Dubai World Cup.
The second favourite is Gun Runner but you are getting not much more than even money for that horse to finish placed behind the long odds-on market leader plus you are losing the win bet. In the 2016 Travers Stakes Arrogate outclassed Gun Runner in a record time. The clear difference in ability is not reflected in the relative prices so Gun Runner is no value to make the payout places in Dubai. However, there is another horse lurking further down the betting who looks well equipped to make the frame.
Long River can be backed at 50/1 with UK bookmakers which equates to 10/1 to get placed. The true odds are 9/2 because the win element of the bet will be a loser if or when Arrogate storms home in first place. The horse is 6.0 (5/1) with the leading exchange bookmaker in the top three market and that is the bet to place. Be aware that price could go when the backers outnumber the layers and back bets are matched at the price. In any case, Long River could be the each way steamer on the basis of some outstanding form in the context of the race for second or third place behind Arrogate.