If you have been reading this blog for a while then you will know that the King George VI is one of my favourite races of the year. This is a 3 mile, class 1 chase race and I’m going to start by looking at some stats. Since Kauto Star has now retired, after winning this race five times, there is the chance for a new runner to make their mark in this race.
Let’ start by looking at some of the stats from past races…
- All previous winners have raced in at least 6 chase races
- 93% of the previous winners have won 40% or more of their races over fences
- 93% of the previous winners have won at least 4 chase races
- 87% of the previous winners have won a chase race over 3 miles
- 87% of the previous winners won the last chase race they were in
- 87% of the previous winners raced in the last 37 days
- 87% of the previous winners were between 6 and 9 years old
Which runners meet these rules? Let’s make a grid so that we can see at a glance which have the strongest profile based on these previous race trends.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Captain Chris | X | X | X | X | X | ||
| Champion Court | X | X | X | ||||
| Cue Card | X | X | X | X | |||
| For Non Stop | X | X | X | ||||
| Grands Crus | X | X | X | ||||
| Junior | X | X | X | X | X | X | |
| Kauto Stone | X | X | X | X | |||
| Long Run | X | X | X | X | X | X | |
| Riverside Theatre | X | X | X | X | |||
| The Giant Bolster | X | X | X |
If we count the stats that each runner meets we get the following scores…
| Junior | 6 |
| Long Run | 6 |
| Captain Chris | 5 |
| Cue Card | 4 |
| Kauto Stone | 4 |
| Riverside Theatre | 4 |
| Champion Court | 3 |
| For Non Stop | 3 |
| Grands Crus | 3 |
| The Giant Bolster | 3 |
The top two are Junior and Long Run followed by Captain Chris. This begins to give us a shape for the race. If we look at the horses that have won more than 40% of their races this gives us Riverside Theatre, Cue Card, Grands Crus, Captain Chris and Long Run. Both Long Run and Captain Chris are in our top stats pattern above which gives us extra confidence in them.
Using a contender strength rating Grands Crus, Riverside Theatre and Cue Card come out the best and using a ranking method we get Riverside Theatre, Long Run, Kauto Stone and Cue Card as having between a 52% and 78% chance of winning this race between them. Cue Card also has excellent speed ratings over similar ground condition as today.
Looking for improvement we can see that most runners have been improving, but Riverside Theatre has been improving the most followed by Champion Court and Long Run with Cue Card coming next.
I like horses to have had a good run in the recent past and of the runners we have mentioned so far the only runner to have done this is Cue Card.
As you would expect in this race, it is going to be very competitive but we need to make some decisions as to who we are going to bet on. We are not surprised to find Long Run is the favourite in the market and the current odds are 5/2 but I think I am going to take him on with Riverside Theatre and Cue Card. I will be placing an 20/80 bet on each which is 20% to win and 80% to place.
Let me know who you are going to be betting by leaving a comment below.
I think Long Run is the best horse in the race,with the worst jockey.So I will oppose him with Kauto Stone and Riverside Theatre.Cue Card,although a good horse,just seems to me to be not quite up to it on occaisions like today.Anyway,good luck to all,and let them all come back safely,horses and jockeys.
Good luck Tony. For me Kauto Stone just gives me to many concerns about competing in this field, but we are on the same with Riverside Theatre. And as you say, we want them all to come back safely.
I will be betting on Champians Court
Good luck 🙂
The Giant Bolster, Long Run,
Im abig fan of A P Macoy. E W .But carnt see Long Rungetting beat
I considered The Giant Bolster but decided for others in the end. Long Run I think is too short which is why I am opposing.
Its going to be an interesting race , Im going with captain Chris e/w at 20s and another outsider Champion Court at 28s e/w hope to get a return.good luck to everyone
Good luck Lee
Still on I pad in Poland but with Polish Play SIM card. Always buy sim free it is cheapest mobile Internet .
Captain Chris and Long Run have my money little that it is. With Kauto Stone Captain Chris fits the Trends so too does Long Run.
Good afternoon Michael,
I did an analysis with my software Wizard Pro on two races today and they are the KING GEORGE and the CHRISTMAS HURDLE also at Kempton. I have put the Ratings below.
Kemp 2.35 p.m. Punjabi Rating 97
Countrywide Flame 74
Raya Star 73
Kemp 3.10 p.m. Long Run 119
Kauto Stone 105
Riverside Theatre 103
This is based on Ability and these horses have the ability and the only question is are they fit and have a suitable Jockey on board to carry out the task of Winning. We will have to wait and see. Thank you.
Thanks for commenting Franklyn. Interesting to see that Riverside Theatre is in your top 3!
Surely having won over the distance must have some bearing on
the outcome, it’s not very earth shattering but if I had a bet I would
have to back Long Run, sorry to disagree Michael.
Pete
Disagreeing is part of the game 🙂 Distance is important but others have indicated they can run well at the distance. Good luck on Long Run.
It’s Kauto Stone for me, it fits the bill.
Good luck Brian.
I am going to take my chances with Long Run and as to the remark about being “the worst jockey”, I think you can take comfort in the fact that this will be Mr S Waley-Cohen’s 12th consecutive ride…
Ithink crands crus if running to his best has a good e.w chance with heavy ground you could see an upset but which one time will tell.
I’m with Riverside Theatre and Cue Card. My outside choice would be Kauto Stone, who might just prove to surprise us all.
Great to have you on the same as us 🙂
Long Run has the best form obviously but i am going for Riverside Threatre it will stay and like the going
long run is a nap bet at hills to be in the top 3 at evens m8 get on big time frome the mouse
That is a good bet and one I would take if I could. Hope you got on it.
im going with cue card e/way and junior place with junior big price with the ground it has good chance for place
I have gone with Capt Chris & Giant Bolster.
I usually go with CD winners so Long Run &
Grand Cruz are positives but just thought the first
two had value.
I agree that Long Run looks like he will be beaten and fancy 2 points on Cue Card
I think it looks possible as well. Good luck 🙂
As soon as it was announced that Junior had been supplemented for the race i backed him ante post because if they supplemented him then he would almost certainly run.I don;t think he will win but i got 43/1 to win and 8.5/1 for the place so my intention now is to lay him at much shorter odds for a free bet.Good Luck
A great move and you should get some good greening up on that trade.
long run is proven at this course and distance, and has no kauto star to deal with today so he’s a must for me. did someone say evens for a top three finish?? GET THE HOUSE ON!!!!
Someone did say that and what brilliant odds they are. It was at Will Hill if it is still available.
jump racing is for fun not professional betters. any pro who bets on jumps isnt.racing is corrupt but you need the information or you need to be able to see what is happening, forget stats and form and going the only people to make money from that nonsense are tipsters and conmen.certain things happen in the betting markets and unscrupulous trainers (no) clever trainers run racing. how many horses are slowly away at the all weather only to come out next race and run up with the pace and then go clear only one thing to watch. the bhb need to be more stringent but that will never happen as there is too much money and too many important people involved.
Just read my own comment I called that one right Long Run and Captain Chris did come 2nd.