This is a huge race with a £1 million pounds in prize money! As you would expect it is going to be a tough race for all the runners involved and those runners are amongst the best.
It is a 10 runner race and they will be competing over 1 mile and 4 furlongs. Of the 10 runners there are two who have not raced in the UK before and so I do not have enough data to make an accurate assessment on them. These two runners are Danedream and Deep Brilliante. I will be using the market to make a decision on these two runners closer to the race off time, if any look to be coming towards the top end of the market then I will include them as a selection.
I am going to be basing this analysis on a going condition of soft, obviously if this changes dramatically then you should be very wary of any selections here. I will start my analysis based on very similar race conditions to this race. Then slowly, I will widen my conditions to look at other races that are not quite so similar.
What does this mean?
It means that initially I am going to be narrowing the field on specific conditions but then runners may be brought back in as contenders when we look at races that are not so closely matched on conditions, but point to the horse being able to perform.
It is interesting to note that only two runners have raced over a similar distance on Soft going. These are Brown Panther and Robin Hood. Brown Panther has a slight edge have raced twice recently and shown improvement but, Robin Hood still has all the potential to be up there with him.
However if we widen our criteria to look at races over similar goings, Sea Moon had a superb performance on the 17th August last year at York. If he can repeat this then he will be a serious threat. He has also won 71% of all his races and ran a good race only 27 days ago showing that he is in strong form. This would be one to ignore at your peril.
Dunaden, while not quite as strong as Sea Moon, performed well over good to soft going on the 5th May. My main concern here is that he has yet to win a race and while it is possible this could be the race he wins, I do not like placing my money on an un-proven horse if I can help it. With so many good runners in this race, that rules him out.
Masked Marvel looks to be of a similar leve to Robin Hood over these conditions. The biggest difference is that he has not had a good race for nearly a year. His last good performance was at Doncaster on the 10th September 2011. While the potential is there, he would have to come back to good form and then improve! I think this is unlikely and will be removing him as a contender.
St Nicholas Abbey and Nathaniel, while coming 3rd and winning their race over similar conditions respectively, have produced figures that would not be competitive in this race. Initially these runners are also removed.
Currently this leaves us with our strongest runner being Sea Moon with Robin Hood and Brown Panther as potential outsiders. However I am going to increase the distances of previous races and feel that good performances over distances of between 1 mile 2 furlongs and 1m 6 furlongs with runners of this quality could indicate which runners are going to do well.
This brings Nathaniel and St Nicholas Abbey into a different light, as both have had good races over a shorter distance. But this does bring up the concern, with such poor races over the same distance as today, if they can reproduce this at todays distance. They are currently the 2nd and 3rd favourites at the time of writing this review, but I do not think I would want to place my money on them when there is the potential for them to fail so dramatically. I could be wishing that I didn’t say this but I am going to be removing these two runners from final contenders list.
For me the strongest horse in this race looks to be Sea Moon and that is where my money will be going. However Brown Panther looks to have some serious potential and at current odds of 24/1 is definitely worth considering as an each-way or place bet. Don’t forget that if either of the two runners Danedream or Deep Brilliante find there way into the top of the betting, I would be looking to include them in dutch bet with Sea Moon as well.
Please let me know who you think will win by leaving a comment below.
Update 15:35
I have checked the latest going and had recent reports from people at the track saying that the going is now looking Good and the reports coming back are that this is accurate.
Even with this news I will still be following my initial analysis of Sea Moon and Brown Panther as an ew. Of Nathaniel and St. Nicholas Abbey, St. Nicholas Abbey has shown such good improvement that I would prefer him. Both are potentially going to perform very well but my preference is still for Sea Moon.
“This brings Nathaniel and St Nicholas Abbey into a different light, as both have had good races over a shorter distance. But this does bring up the concern, with such poor races over the same distance as today, if they can reproduce this at todays distance.”
Not to put too fine a point on it, but that is nonsense. St Nicholas Abbey has won three Group 1s over 12f and Nathaniel won this race last year. They are 12f horses and there is no evidence in their racetrack performances, running styles, breeding or physical appearance to suggest otherwise.
There is no doubt they could do well, but for me there are some other considerations as to the level of their performance. Of course this does not mean that they won’t win or that my opinion is the right one, just that they will not be having my money on them today.
No rain at Ascot since Wed which I think will help Nathaniel so for me that’s the one to beat. I fancy Brown Panther as an e/w punt (33-1 on bet 365 at the moment).
Ground has been declared as Good to Soft today, I will re-check closer to the off time.
Michael,
Great analysis I am on your side on this one although I think it will be Brown Panter first Sea moon second with Nathanial a close third. Thats my predictions and a ten euro (price of two pints) on a combi forecast with boylesports right now will give you a grand…..with this. Then you can take all your friends out for a pint…
🙂 I hope you are on for the 100/1 combo! Fingers crossed.
I agree with Dan that you are dismissing St Nick and Nathaniel too readily. OK when Nathaniel won last year he had the weight for age allowance, but he is now a year older and stronger.
Also I’m a little surprised you are basing your analysis on Soft going. Th forecast has been for Good to Soft on the round course and for Good on the straight course since as long ago as yesterday afternoon.
I did the analysis last night when the going was still being declared as Soft. As mentioned in a comment below, I will be updating the thread closer to the off with a re-look based on the going condition at that time. Maybe I should take another look at them.
I have dutched Sea Moon Brown Panther and Nathanial Ground dries out well at Ascot.
So I am led to believe, sun is shining 50 miles away a little light rain last night.
Good to soft it could be but water logging under foot could make later races slower.
Best of Luck if you are punting today At Ascot.
Thanks Liam, I am trying to get some connections to give me a good report of the ground there today. I would actually prefer it if later races were slower today.
Michael,
enjoyed the analysis, although I think its a hard race to call I agree with Brown Panther and got 40/1 early friday morning on betfair for an e/w
Good luck with the ew Robert
I bow to your greater knowledge. Your ability to get to the root of the race is commendable. By eliminating St Nicholas Abbey and Nathaniel you have given me hige ammounts of food for thought. I try to look for value and to this end will probably be Brown Panther as a place bet.
I have mentioned to you previously how much I would like to learn your form analysis and where you acquire so much accurate information. Thank you for your excellent advice.
Thank you Mel, it is going to be a tough race whatever and I personally prefer others over those two runners.
Good afternoon Michael,
Thank you for your email. I have read your article regarding the King George and have used by WizPro software to analyse the Race. Here are the Top Three ratings set out below.
Sea Moon Rating 19 Value 4/1, Deep Brilliante Rating 18 Value 25/1, Nathaniel Rating 17 Value 4/1, Brown Panther Rating 16 Value 50/1, St Nicholas Abbey Rating 15 Value 6/1, Dunaden Rating 14 Value 10/1, Danedream Rating 13 Value 12/1.
My selections would be a Dutch between the Top three if I can get the value for my money prices.
The possibility is that we need to consider the Top five ratings due to the horses from abroad who may or maynot perform well. Thank you.
I agree with sea moon and iv also backed nathaniel.
have only just opened this email , but i did danedream so i was well pleased when i saw your mention of this horse