Good morning, today I’ve gone through the entire Doncaster card to provide you with the strongest selections in each race.
To find these selections I focus on the historic performances of the race where available and combine that with form reading and trainer analysis to determine which of the runners are most likely to contend in each race.
Please leave me a comment below with who you think are the strongest runners.
2:00 – We get going with a tricky 2 year-old contest so stakes should be kept to a minimum here with most of the runners either making their debuts or having only had a few runs. As we all know these juveniles can improve leaps and bounds from one run to the next so the market will be a good guide. Ryan Moore catches the eye riding for Richard Hannon on the unraced Jane Rose so is one for the shortlist, but the call here is SARDENYA. With two career runs this Roger Charlton-trained juvenile is one of the more experienced in the field (2 runs) and after a recent second at Lingfield looks to be coming to the boil. Add in that the Charlton camp are in fire at the moment with a 44% strike-rate at the time of writing then this further backs-up that their horses are in rude health at the moment.
2.30 – The William Haggas yard are going great guns at present and the fact they’ve booked Ryan Moore to ride their Learn By Heart will make this one popular. He was a solid third on debut at Haydock and with the expected improvement should be going close. However, the call here is the Richard Hannon-trained COSTAL DRIVE. Another that was third on debut – also at Haydock, but being sent off 20/1 that day then he clearly ran better than expected. But this race has been a favourite of the Hannon’s in recent times, having won the prize in 2009, 2011 and 2013 so it’s clearly a contest they like to target so that’s a further plus ahead of the selections chance.
3.00 – A very tough race to unravel here, but with the Ivan Furtado stable operating around a 29% strike-rate at the moment then their Ski Blast might be worth a small interest. Ryan Moore is on another Hannon-trained runner – Ashwaq – so that one commands respect too, but the Ruth Carr yard took this race 12 months ago so their ADVENTUREMAN (e/w) might be worth sticking with. This 5 year-old flopped last time at Nottingham, but he did have excuses. That was over 1m2f, while the slightly softer ground wasn’t ideal. Back to a mile here is a plus after running second over this trip in his earlier outings this season, while jockey James Sullivan knows the horse very well.
3.30 – The hat-trick seeking Helovaplan, who is also a past course and distance winner, is sure to be popular, but his looks harder than his recent races and he’s also 6lbs higher this time. The in-form Roger Charlton yard run Casimiro and should not be underestimated, but this could be another for Ryan Moore. He’s been booked to ride the Marco Botti-trained MOOLAZIM and with the stable winning this race in 2014 with a similar sort that’s a good sign. The horse has won two of his last three and caught the eye at Yarmouth last time when trouncing that field by an easy 2 ½ lengths with Moore riding that day too – this is harder there should be ‘Moore’ to come!
4.00 – Another tricky race with several making their racecourse debuts. But of those that have run What A Home, Glittering Jewel and Kitty Boo are respected, but this could be yet another for Ryan Moore. He rides for Sir Michael Stoute this time on SUPERIORITYCOMPLEX, who is having her third start. A recent second at Salisbury when stepped up to this 1m2f trip was a clear sign she’s going the right way and with the Stoute camp having won this race 12 months ago too then that’s a further plus.
4.30 – Incus and Braes Of Lochalsh are feared being they are both past course and distance winners, while the consistent Fire Jet is another to note. However, the most interesting runner is the only other proven course and distance winner in the field – ITLAAQ. Yes, at 11 years-old he’s certainly not getting any younger, but he won this race 12 months ago and has clearly be primed to try and repeat the dose. Okay, so he’s also 4lbs higher this time but the talented Megan Nicholls, who claims 5lbs, has been booked to ride to help on that score, while recent seconds and a fourth have been solid indications that he’s still in love with the game, despite his age.
5.00 – There should be a lot more to come from the Henry Candy-trained MORELLO on what is only her second run in a handicap. She’s back from a mile to 6f here and that looks a plus after tiring over that trip the last twice, while a 5lb drop in the ratings looks significant. Sadieroseclifford and My Girl Maisie are the only two recent winners in the field so command respect based on that alone, but the other interesting one here is the Jedd O’Keeffe-trained REGAL DECREE. Why? Well, this yard has won the last two runnings of this race and so will be going all out to make it three from three. They try this time with this 3 year-old, who has been a solid third the last twice in similar races. He’s been beaten under 2 lengths both times and with the cheekpieces on for the first time then this can hopefully bring out a bit more.
5.30 – Division Two of the previous race here and another tricky one to unravel with 18 runners. We’ve another for the in-form Ivan Furtado team in Frank’s Legacy and with this horse being the only last time out winner in the race then he’s sure to attract interest from punters. But, a bit like the previous contest, it might pay to stick with another Jedd O’Keeffe runner – METISIAN. This 3 year-old is one of the lesser exposed in the race with only three career outings and gets in here on his handicap debut on what looks a fair mark. There should be more to come and has already shown signs of ability with a fifth and fourth in recent runs.
