Guineas Trends And Stats 2014

As we head into May all eyes turn to the first of the five English Classics with the 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket. The first of those, and for many flat racing pundits, these signal the real start of the flat turf season.

Each race will give racing fans some early clues ahead of the Epsom Derby and Epsom Oaks, run in June, as two of the last twelve 2,000 Guineas victors have gone onto Derby glory (Sea The Stars & Camelot), while over that same 12 year period we’ve seen one 1,000 Guineas winner follow-up in the Epsom Oaks the following month (Kazzia).

To help you find the winner and also put a line through a few of the runners we’ve highlighted some key trends and stats.

2,000 Guineas…………………….

The ‘standout’ stat here is that ALL of the last 12 winners headed to this race here off the back of a top three finish in their most recent outing, while with 11 of the last 12 having won over 7f previously, and also winning a Group race, then these are other big trends to keep on your side.

10 of the last 12 winners also won their last race too, so that should put a line through a lot, while the same amount had won between 2-5 times previously in their careers.

It’s also a race that’s been very kind to punters with 8 of the last 12 winners coming from the top three in the betting market, plus 7 of the last 12 market leaders were placed. Don’t be too worried if your pick hasn’t had an outing yet that season as 8 of the last 12 fit that bill.

The Irish-trained raiders also have a good recent record in the 2,000 Guineas with 7 of the last 12 going to a stable based in Ireland, with Aidan O’Brien-trained horses the ones to note with 6 wins in the race.

Key 2,000 Guineas Trends…………….

12/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/12 – Won over at least 7f previously
11/12 – Won a Group race previously
10/12 – Won between 2-5 times previously
10/12 – Won their last race
9/12 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
8/12 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
8/12 – Having their first run of the season
7/12 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career previously
7/12 – Favourites placed
7/12 – Won by an Irish-based yard
6/12 – Irish bred
5/12 – Won over a mile previously
4/12 – Favourites that won
4/12 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
4/12 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (2 winners)
3/12 – Raced at the Curragh last time out

The average winning SP in the last 12 renewals is 9/1

1,000 Guineas…………

Similar to the 2,000 Guineas, run the previous day, it could pay to keep horses that were placed in their last race on your side with all of the last 12 fitting that key stat.

9 of the last 12 won last their most recent race, and that is a huge stat against the popular Rizeena, who we last saw run second in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket back in September.

Having previous Group-winning form is another positive with 9 of the last 12 ticking that trend, but, unlike the 2,000 Guineas, the race has been a better race for the bookies with 8 of the last 12 winners coming from outside the top 3 in the market, while 7 of those also returned at double-figure odds.

Don’t be worried if your pick is yet to win over a mile either as 8 of the last 12 backed up that trend – this is, however, a positive for Rizeena, who has only won over 7f or shorter so far.

In a nutshell, of the two Guineas races it’s a contest that has in recent times thrown-up the odd shock despite 3 of the last 12 favourites winning, so don’t be too worried if your fancy is one of the bigger-priced runners.

Key 1,000 Guineas Trends…………..

12/12 – Placed in their last race
10/12 – Won a Group race previously
9/12 – Won between 2-3 times previously
9/12 – Won last time out
8/12 – Yet to win a race over a mile
8/12 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less
8/12 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/12 – Returned a double-figure price
7/12 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) previously
6/12 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
6/12 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
6/12 – Unplaced favourites
5/12 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
4/12 – Won by a US bred horse
4/12 – Went onto win the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot
4/12 – Previous Group One winners
3/12 – Favourites that won
3/12 – Went onto finish fourth in the Epsom Oaks
1/12 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Kazzia)

The average winning SP in the last 12 renewlas is 10/1