In preparation for Cheltenham week, where I will be providing you race analysis every day, I thought I would do a race analysis today for you using the graphical approach that is utilised inside Betting Speed Evolution.
The race I am going to look at is the 18:30 at Wolverhampton. This is a sprint race and speed is going to be key. I have filtered the previous speed ratings to only take into account races that have occured on All Weather ground condition, which is the same as todays race. Below you can see a list of all the information for every runner in the race.
So this looks like a lot of figures…because it is. As always I am looking to put in place a three step process…
- Remove non-contenders
- Highlight contenders
- Determine way to bet
The first step is to remove non-contenders and to do that I am going to look for runners that have performed significantly lower than the best horses in this race. We can do this quickly in BSE by hovering over a horses name and we connect all the dots for the horses races being displayed.
As you can see for Busy Bimbo, it is immediately apparent that this horses level is significantly below the best performances from the runners in this field. You can do this by hand using speed ratings from any source and creating an average and removing the worst performers or those declining. Doing this we can remove Sophie’s Beau, Bond Blade and Busy Bimbo.
This actually looks to be a competitive race and there are a number of runners that have strong potential. Now we want to find the horses that have good potential to contend in this race.
Rightcar and Fantasy Fighter have been performing against the toughest competition recently but Rightcar has not had a good race for 152 days which gives us some concern even though he has the strongest preference for the track. This preference is followed by good preferences for the track from Ches Jicaro, Miserere Mei and Fantasy Fighter.
Fantasy Fighter, Ches Jicaro and Rightcar have had the best average performances on All Weather races. But, Miserere Mei has had the best average performances over the last 45 days and put a good race in just 10 days go indicating that their is strong potential today. Fantasy Fighter has also had a good some very good performances recently although let down in the last couple of races.
Fantasy Fighter, Miserere Mei, Rightcar and Ches Jicaro have all been showing some improvements with Fantasy Fighter being the best overall. As you can see these have got the best points which makes them our contenders while Deveze and Chateau Lola are not non-contenders but we don’t expect them to perform to a strong enough level unless something unexpected occurs.
Looking at the markets Rightcar is currently 9/2 which seems to be too low for me, so I will be removing him from my wager. Miserere Mei is current market favourite and although not offering much value I wouldn’t want to bet on the race without including him, Ches Jicaro also looks to be about the right price. The value wager looks to be on Fantasy Fighter who is currently 5/1 which would be a good each-way bet.
Depending on your risk levels you may want to dutch these three runners, bet each-way on Fantasy Fighter and have a saver on Ches Jicaro and Miserere Mei for no loss if either of them win, just have the saver on Miserere Mei or just do the each-way on Fantasy Fighter. For me, in this race, I will be going for an each-way on Fantasy Fighter.
Let me know how you will be betting by leaving a comment below.
Dear Sir I am looking at your boxes you have with your horses on it now as a layman,I WOULD HAVE TO BE BLIND,SHORTSIGHTED,HAVE CHINESE EYES TO WORK OUT WHAT YOU HAVE WRITTEN IN THEM AS I CANNOT MAKE HEAD OR TAIL WITH THEM AT ALL.THE WRITING IS SMALL AND MINUTE SO CAN YOU HELP ME WHAT AM I LOOKING AT PLEASE.
You can click on the pictures to enlarge them but they are just examples of one of our software tools to visualise ratings to speed up the analysis process. What I have actually done is written in the content.
Anyway…Now we have a bit of a thread going. Anyone got any fancies for Kempton tomorrow (Saturday)? I like Brick Red and Wyck Hill
Hi Michael,
working on your analysis I’m going for a 30/70 win & place (Betfair) on your selection… Fantasy Fighter. 90% of my detection work comes to the same conclusion… though Rightcar would be my second best… 5lb claimer with a win under his belt for the same trainer.
CD winner in last 7 days offers a place me thinks. So win/pl on Fantasy Fighter and a dutch on Fantasy Fighter and Rightcar.
And hey… thanks for all the effort you’re going to… really enjoying it.
John S.
Thanks John, and good luck with your bet
the three contenders you identify all met on 11 Feb at C&D. Miserere was the best of them that day, with a 1.75L 2nd, but the RP notes indicate that Chez was hampered for it’s 2.5L 4th, so not far behind. Fantasy was a lot further back, with no excuses, at a 4.5L 8th.
Also, Fantasy has done ALL it’s winning at 6F on this track, so maybe it’s one of those ‘pattern’ horses that you mentioned in another post?
Rightcar was 5th of 9 in a poor C&D race on 15 Feb, but had some problems. That was not the case though in a stronger race on 22 Jan when 5th by 4.75L C&D, and on that day Miserere was a closer 3rd.
I like Chez and Miserere, with the later representing better value a chance it could reverse the outcome of their previous encounter should things go right for it.
Fantasy could certainly be a pattern horse for 6 furlongs, I looked at that but felt there was still potential value there. Interesting you think Miserere is offering good value at 9/4 what kind of odds would you put his chances at? I certainly think he has a strong chance of winning the race, in fact I think all three have a strong chance of winning the race. Thank you for your post and additional details, it is appreciated.
Sorry – a hurried post – I meant to say I thought Chez was BETTER value than Miserere.
Ah okay, yes I would definitely agree with that 🙂
I looked at these horses on Racing Post this morning so I am pleased you have confirmed my choices. Miserere Mei looks like a winner but as you say not much of a value bet. I have chosen to gofor Rightcar for the each way bet.
Thanks for letting us know David, good luck with Rightcar
Ches Jicaro could be the handicap snip here.If you can dismiss the run 4th feb when slowly away, he was just under a length behind Miserere Mei time out when staying on(hampered) and with a nice pull in the weights.Only negative might need further.
Ches Jicaro is definitely a strong threat, as you say may need further but then so may Fantasy Fighter, I will be expecting to see tightly run race.
This is very interesting as I have betting speed evolution and my version is totally different to this.It shows only 3 horses..rightcar, misererie mei and devize.
In fact I am completely at a loss how to use it.
Ronnie, this is in Advanced Mode. You need to look at the advanced mode manual and webinars (from the help tab) to see how to use it in this mode.
MISERERE MEI should win as the only likely front runner.
granted a fast pace RIGHTCAR would have been my choice.
At the prices its a no bet race for me, as SHOWBOATING has already made my day
Congrats on having your day made already 🙂
thanks, i think it was an obvious pick, its best 3 speed figs where better than anything in the race and it was likely to benefit from being a hold up horse in a race with 3 potential front runners.
The surprising thing was the price !!
I have had a look at this race only because you put it up. All I can say with the greatest of respect, is if I were reduced to having a bet in a race such as this I would gave the game up completely.
It is certainly going to be competitive, and choosing to just watch is also excellent advice.
could not agree more