Expand your Horizons – Betting on Baseball (Part Two)

Guest post written by Paul Micelli

Following on from my first article on baseball betting let’s use another game as an example. In this instance, the San Diego Padres are playing away to the San Francisco Giants and the away side are slightly favoured according to the following regular money line:

  • San Diego Padres: -115

  • San Francisco Giants: +105

On this particular money line, bettors will be investing $115 to win $100 if they are backing the Padres. Those favouring the Giants will be risking $100 to win $105. However, the run line would present odds in a different manner altogether:

  • San Diego Padres: -1.5 +135

  • San Francisco Giants: +1.5 -155

You will notice that the odds didn’t change as much in the run line for the Padres as they did for the Red Sox. This is because the Boston-based side were playing at home. Because of the way baseball is played, the Red Sox will not be batting at the bottom of the ninth innings if they are leading by one run. They will also stop batting in the ninth if they go ahead by a single run regardless of whether all bases are loaded and there are no men out unless they actually score a home run.

As the away side, the Padres will continue batting throughout the entire ninth innings even if they are holding the lead at this stage of the game. If a lead is acquired at the top of the ninth innings, the Padres will be obliged to continue batting in an effort to add to their lead. Wagering on the run line can be preferable when you like the look of a clear favourite and can back them at reduced odds by giving them 1.5 runs.

Overs and Unders

It can also be worth considering a prediction on the total number of runs scored by both sides throughout the duration of a game. Somewhat obviously, the 1.5 runs assigned are much more significant in a game where 7 runs are predicted than they are in a game where maybe twice as many could be scored.

‘Overs and Unders’ bets (also referred to as ‘totals’) essentially involve placing wagers that predict the total number of runs scored in a single match being above or below the estimated total offered by bookmakers. The important thing to remember in this type of bet is the fact that you will be sometimes be risking more than the standard – 110 stake that applies to American football and basketball bets.

Let’s assume our game between the Giants and Padres runs the following line:

  • San Diego Padres: 8.5 -130

  • San Francisco Giants: 8.5 +110

Using this example, bettors will be risking $130 to win $100 if they believe there will be more than 8.5 runs scored. Those who feel that there will be less than 8.5 runs scored will be risking $100 to win $110. For betting purposes, the runs from all 9 innings plus any additional periods will apply on all run line and ‘totals’ bets.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.
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