Advice

Do Trends Work?

It is not unusual to want to analyse the trends of previous races before a big race. Finding trends involve looking at the same race over the past 10 years or more to determine what type of horse wins the race.

In fact it is a simpler form of something that is known as profiling. You can profile both horses and races and by determining specific race trends we are doing a simple form of profiling.

Of course the big question is does it work?

And the answer is yes and no!

With that being a little less than unhelpful let me explain to you why. Trends can be incredibly useful in finding not only the contenders but also the winners. However they are becoming more widely used (on the big races only) and so this is reflected in the odds for runners.

Without a doubt though, if you like to have a punt on a big race but don’t want to know all the intricacies of form reading then it is going to be much easier to look at trends than form.

I haven’t done a test to see what would happen if you followed trends only through all the big races but I have no doubt you would pick up some nice winners.

Even with a growing use of trends they can still be exceptionally useful, which is why we provide them for the big races at the Race Advisor!

I wanted to look at some of the trend areas that you may consider looking into for the next big race you will be betting on!

Market Trends

These are trends that look at how the market has performed in the past. We want to know if the market is a reliable indicator or not for the race in question. You could look to see…

How many of the favourites have won

How many winners have been priced below 5/1

How many winners come from the top 2 or 3 in betting

How many outsiders have won

Last Time Out Trends

The figures that you will be looking at here are focused on how the winners in previous races have performed in the race before the big race in question. This could include looking at previous winners…

Number of days since the horse raced

Finishing position in last race

The class of the previous race

The odds of the last race

The market position in the last race

Trainer and Jockey Trends

As you have probably guessed the trainer and jockey trends are a close look at those people who have a good record in the specific race you are evaluating. You want to look primarily at…

The strike rate

The profit / loss of flat betting them in the race

The place strike rate

Breeding Trends

There are two groups of people, those who believe that breeding is a strong factor in determining a horses performance and those who don’t. I believe that they can be a good indicator at the beginning of a horse’s career and become less important the older the horse becomes and the more we learn about it’s own personality and performance. However it is always a good idea to include them in your trends! You should be looking for…

Country of winners

What course / distance performance the sire / dam are known for

Once you have all of this information you want to use it slightly differently to the way that most people use it. First of all we want to find the horses with the most trends, this is what others will be looking for and you want to make sure you know who they are going to be placing their bets on. Next you want to start looking for potential strengths in the slightly weaker runners.

Any runners that have a trend which sticks out as being very strong even if the majority of the rest of the trends aren’t will be worth a slightly closer look. Delve a bit deeper into their past performances as sometimes you will find one who has managed to miss the trends but has a very strong potential of winning. These runners, when you find them, will be giving you the high odds payouts!

To get detailed trends for the big races already done for you then head here.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

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