Guest post written by Paul Micelli
Why do Odds Change?
If a sporting event takes place where the majority of bets are made on one particular outcome, the bookmaker will change the odds accordingly in order to keep their margin we discussed above and to manage their risk. If an equally-rated football match saw both teams starting at 10/11 but one side was enjoying more support from the betting public, the odds on the favoured team might come in to 4/6 while the less-fancied side might go out to 5/4.
As well as reducing their potential losses, the change in odds might actually attract an increased number of bets on the less-fancied side because of the better value on offer. This incredibly fine balancing act can be the biggest difference in suffering heavy losses or enjoying a small profit.
Admittedly, there are a large number of other factors that can affect the betting market. Injuries, suspensions and weather conditions will all have their part to play but nothing has as significant impact on the bookmakers than the actions of sports betting enthusiasts.
Why do Odds seem so bad?
First and foremost, sports betting enthusiasts should remember that there would be no action at all without the presence of bookmakers. At times, the prices on offer in many sporting events may seem tight at best but there is always an inherent reason why certain odds are applied. Unfortunately, bookmakers are not charitable organisations and profits are essential to their business operations. Overheads, staff wages and many other outgoings must be factored into their profit and loss statements and betting odds will usually reflect their chances of actually making money.
To make a profit, bookmakers employ a large number of odds compilers and these vital members of staff are experts at the role they play within their respective organisations. Their main responsibility is to provide accurate betting odds that will create profits for their employers while still maintaining an attractive price for sports betting enthusiasts so that the maximum amount of money can be taken on a single event.
Betting odds can tell us a great deal. If, for example, a football team are being offered at odds of 2/1 and a sports betting enthusiast finds that price particularly attractive, there may be an underlying reason as to why those odds have been offered. Do the betting public really fancy the opposition side more or do the compilers actually have inside knowledge about key players or other factors that might influence the actual result?
It should always be remembered that margins will be in play. If a bookmaker is offering 2/1 on a particular side or horse, the true odds will probably be somewhere in the region of 5/2. These vital mathematical calculations are imperative to the success of bookmakers and in turn, they manage to keep our own dreams alive of finally finding that one big winner that could change our lives forever.
