Barry’s National Hunt Rating Method

A few weeks ago Barry very kindly sent in a ratings method that he has used for a long time and asked me to see what I thought of it and adjust it as I saw fit. I haven’t made many adjustments just some things that didn’t make sense to me.

The ratings are split into two sections, National Hunt and Flat. In today’s post we shall begin by looking at the National Hunt section. First of all we create a race based rating which can be given to all the runners and this is then adjusted for each runner based on certain criteria.

Creating the National Hunt race based rating

Look at the prize money for the winner and allocate points based on the table below.

Prize Money To Winner
Min Max Points
400 30
400 499 34
500 599 37
600 699 39
700 899 42
900 999 47
1000 1099 49
1100 1299 51
1300 1499 53
1500 1799 55
1800 1899 58
1900 2099 60
2100 2399 62
2400 2699 65
2700 2999 67
3000 3499 70
3500 3999 71
4000 4499 72
4500 4999 73
5000 5499 74
5500 5999 75
6000 6499 76
6500 6999 77
7000 7499 78
7500 7999 79
8000 8499 80
8500 8999 81
9000 9749 82
9750 10999 84
11000 11999 85
12000 12999 86
13000 14999 87
15000 17499 89
17500 19999 91
20000 24999 92
25000 32499 93
32500 49999 95
50000 74999 97
75000 99999 99
100000 199999 100
200000 299999 104
300000 399999 108
400000 599999 116
600000 2000000 200

If the prize money to the winner was £15500 then you would start with a rating of 89 points.

Next we adjust this base rating depending on the type of race.

Type of Race
Race Type Points
Handicap 7
Conditional Handicap 3
Novice handicap Hurdle 3
Novice Hurdle 0
Non-Handicap 0
Novice Handicap Chase -3
Novice Chase -7
Selling Race -14

If our race was a Conditional Handicap then we would add 3 points to the 89 we already have, giving us a total of 72 points. However if it was a Novice Chase race then we would subtract 7 points from the 89 to give us a total of 82 points. Any conditions that are not shown also receive a 0 and so have no change.

This completes the basic rating for the race. Every runner will receive this rating and we now begin to adjust this for each runner.

Weight Carried LTO
Weight Min Weight Max Points per lb
0 154 -1
154 200 1

In each horses last race, for every pound it carried above 154 pounds you should add 1 point to its rating, for every pound it carried below 154 you should subtract 1 point from its rating.

Weight Carried
Weight Min Weight Max Points per lb
0 154 1
154 200 -1

In the race you are rating for every pound that a horse is carrying above 154 pounds you subtract 1 point and for every pound it is carrying below 154 pounds you add 1 point.

Number of Runner LTO
Runners Points
7 -2
6 -3
5 -5
4 -8
3 -11

If a horse’s last race had 7 or less runners then you deduct the relevant amount of points from their score using the above table. In the rare cases of a 2 runner race do not use them and move on.

DSLR Min DSLR Max Points
30 59 -3
60 89 -6
90 2000 -13

If a horse has not raced for 30 days or more then you deduct the relevant amount of points from their score using the above table.

Finally we add points to the rating for those runners who won their last race.

Won Last Race
Distance Points per length
2 miles to 2 miles 1 furlong 2
2 miles 2 furlongs and over 1

We award extra points based on how much they won the race by, either 2 points per length or 1 point per length. These points can be divided up, e.g. at 1 point per length a half-length would be 0.5 points.

Once you have done that then you will have rated your horses. I thought that it looked like it may take a while to rate a race and so I put together a handy spreadsheet that will do it for you. Let’s take a look at how we rate a race.

The above image is what you will see when you first open the spreadsheet. You only need to enter information in the areas that I have surrounded in red. Please note that the formulas entered have not been protected so that should you wish to change them you can, this also means that you can delete them by mistake.

First of all enter the Prize Money that is given to the winner in the relevant field and underneath this put the type of Race. I have put a reminder of the race types on the top right hand side of the page. You must type them in exactly as they are written in this list otherwise the spreadsheet will not be able to find their appropriate rating. If the conditions do not match any on the list then leave this field blank.

You will see a rating appear to the right (highlighted in green) of the Type of Race field and then underneath, also highlighted in green, will be the basic rating. This basic rating is copied for every horse name that you enter. There is a maximum of twenty runners that the spreadsheet can calculate for but you can extend this if you wish.

For each runner you then need to fill in their Weight LTO in pounds, their Weight in this race in pounds, the number of runners last time out, the number of days since the horse last ran (DSLR). All of these fields will find the appropriate rating adjustment automatically from the Data sheet.

The only manual work that you will need to do is to work out the number of points awarded to horses who won in their last race. I have put a reference on the right hand side of the page to remind you how many points per length is awarded to a horse who won their last race. Enter this figure in the Won LTO column when required.

The final rating for each horse will then be displayed in the Final Rating column.

Using this spreadsheet you should be able to use Barry’s National Hunt rating method quickly and easily. A big thank you to Barry for sharing this with the readers of the Race Advisor.

You can download this spreadsheet here.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.
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