Ayr Gold Cup 2011
Today brings us once again to the Gold Cup race at Ayr. It is a class 2 race that is being run over 6 furlongs. Rather than using past trends for the analysis this time I am going to look at the race from a different angle, picking up on runners that may have potential under different factors.
Looking at form we can see that Ancient Cross, Eton Rifles and Tajneed have an advantage over the over runners. This is not based purely on positions but rather by looking at the runners they have raced against previously and the qualities of the races. However it is important to note that Pepper Lane, Below Zero, Our Jonathon and Mayson have all been showing improvements. Just because they have been showing improvements does not mean that they are going to be able to win this race but we need to bear in mind that this improvement could continue momentum in todays race.
If we look at the best performances that the runners have done on form only we can highlight Eton Rifles, Ancient Cross, Castles In The Air and Tajneed as standing out. From the speed perspective Eton Rifles and Pastoral Player had a significantly better performance than the other runners in their last race and this has to be considered especially for Eton Rifles who is projected to run the fastest today. Although in terms of speed todays race could be quite evenly matched against 9 runners suggesting that there could be a pack on the run-in.
The best speed figures over the last 90 days also highlights Eton Rifles as being amongst the top however when looking at the distance and track he is less likely to perform as well with Breathless Kiss coming out on top for the distance and Hawkeyethenoo for track. Our Jonathon and Pepper Lane also have a good record over the distance and are likely to find it very comfortable.
Eton Rifles comes back in once again to highlight a strong performance over similar going in the past which suggests that there is going to be no trouble on that front, along with Majestic Myles showing a strong preference on the going as well.
As you can see Eton Rifles looks to be serious contender in this race and cannot be ignored. Our Jonathon, Pepper Lane and Tajneed also have potential to run a good race. Interestingly Ancient Cross could also be one to watch out for, while the odds are around 32/1 and he is in no way a leading runner in any factor, neither is he a poor runner in any factor. If he puts in a solid race then he could well take some place money today.
I think that I will be going for an each-way bet to four places on Eton Rifle and place betting to five places on Our Jonathon and Pepper Lane. Ancient Cross will also be a bet in the place market but I shall wait to see how the odds move in the ten to be placed market and choose between that and the five to be placed market closer to the off.
Let me know what you think by selecting which horses you think are going to win below. We have had a huge success in the past by you joining forces with our other readers to vote on the runners you think have a chance so spend a couple of seconds to do so now and then check the results!
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i have left this well alone was tempted to go each way on croisultan but chickened out.I liked your analysis certainly a novel way of looking at things good on you. regards mike dunn
It is certainly going to be a tough race, I don’t blame you for not going with the bet. I am sure you will enjoy watching it more. What pushed you towards Croisultan?
This must be the day for Ireland watched the rugby played brilliantly deserved the win
So follow the Irish today?
Well here are my bets, all to win on betfair. Our Johnathon @20, Eton Rifiles @ 14.5, and Pepper Lane @ 15.
“Its an hard way to make an easy living” lol
Hi
Interesting stuff, but I disagree with your take on the speed figures. Yes, Eton Rifles probably is the quickest but for me course best is Kaldoun Kingdom (fahey loves this meeting!), distance best gives me High Standing and Evens and Odds (E&O too old at 7) and going shows up High Standing and Croisultan. Below Zero does look to be an improver, so I agree on that one!!
For me Croisultan is the stand out. Form in big fields, the heavier the better going wise, and from a little heard of stable meaning he’s under the radar a bit. I took 20-1 (e/w) a couple of days ago due to ground issues. I think that’s an ignored factor today.
My 3 are: Croisultan, High Standing and Below Zero (20-1, 25-1 & 40-1)
Best regards
David
sorry just had to get a football bet on.main reason for favouring croisultan was he likes softer going and did much better on his last run in the softer going .I think he could reach a place as he should be good and fit now mike dunn
To Mike Dunn
Croisultan has the same type of profile as Nocturnal Affair last week and that one didn’t do too badly !! I’d still have a cheeky e/w punt if you can get 16’s or bigger
David
Hi guys,
My two against the field are Pepper Lane and Mayson. My usual approach is to work with the trends combined with form reading!
I’ve gone e/w on them both and think they should enjoy the going and the big field. Small stakes for me though as it is notoriously difficult!
Good luck to everyone getting involved!
Regards,
Ed
Interesting guys. David I have Kaldoun Kingdom with good speed on the track as well but I don’t think that is going to be enough to pull him into the frame. I have taken another look at Croisultan but he is just not for me in this race. Having said that I hope he comes into the frame for you guys 🙂 It is certainly going to be an interesting race to watch!
i have had a small play on WAFFLE. only ever one once. coming to form at the right time. second looks good last time and think he will rellish the soft ground.
An absolute nightmare of a race a speculative pick with Son of Car and Mayson. Best of luck if you are playing.