You can find out if a horse is a course or distance winner without much difficulty. The information is available on every website that provides racing details including the Racing Post and Sporting Life.
As with every statistic these will perform better in certain areas than in others and I would like to investigate one particular area where they may perform well. Lets start with a basic analysis of course, distance and course/distance winners.
Course
|
Runs |
Wins |
Win SR |
Profit |
ROI |
|
42013 |
4460 |
10.60% |
-9736.69% |
-23.2%% |
Distance
|
Runs |
Wins |
Win SR |
Profit |
ROI |
|
110081 |
11417 |
10.40% |
-24034.34 |
-21.80% |
Course and Distance
|
Runs |
Wins |
Win SR |
Profit |
ROI |
|
30575 |
3376 |
11.00% |
-6886.74 |
-22.50% |
There are some interesting results that you may not have thought you would be seeing. The course and distance winners have the highest strike rate, which is not unexpected, but they do not have the best ROI. Distance winners have the best ROI and it is the profit that we are most interested in. One thing is clear, you will not be making a profit using this information on its own!
Available odds are one of the most predictive factors and the ROI and strike rate for distance winners is significantly reduced once we start going above odds of 18/1. If we limit ourselves to runners with odds of 18/1 or less we then get the following results.
|
Runs |
Wins |
Win SR |
Profit |
ROI |
|
85814 |
10845 |
12.60% |
-15385.34 |
-17.90% |
A good improvement in the ROI and a small improvement in Strike Rate which is excellent. Breaking down the results by Days Since Last Ran.
|
Last Ran |
Wins |
Runs |
Win SR |
Profit |
ROI |
|
1 to 7 days |
2017 |
13567 |
14.90% |
-1259.77 |
-9.30% |
|
8 to 14 days |
3014 |
23931 |
12.60% |
-4422.53 |
-18.50% |
|
15 to 28 days |
3478 |
27981 |
12.40% |
-5393.05 |
-19.30% |
|
29 to 56 days |
1338 |
11306 |
11.80% |
-2316.72 |
-20.50% |
|
57+ days |
998 |
9029 |
11.10% |
-1993.27 |
-22.10% |
It is very clear that 1-7 days since last ran is significantly better performing than any other. We may also find that if we look for a runner that has won in the last few days instead then the performance is increased even more.
|
Days Since Win |
Wins |
Runs |
Win SR |
Profit |
ROI |
|
1 to 7 days |
620 |
2864 |
21.60% |
-159.49 |
-5.60% |
|
8 to 14 days |
1094 |
6221 |
17.60% |
-547.44 |
-8.80% |
|
15 to 28 days |
1661 |
10934 |
15.20% |
-1917.53 |
-17.50% |
|
29 to 56 days |
1685 |
12650 |
13.30% |
-2137.17 |
-16.90% |
|
57+ days |
5785 |
53145 |
10.90% |
-10623.71 |
-20.00% |
Once again there is a big improvement in the performance if we look at the number of days since a win rather than number of days since raced. With a 21.60% strike rate and -5.60% ROI for horses who won in less than 7 days and who are distance winners we are going to be break-even if betting on Betfair. I am sure that we can improve on this still though.
My last filter is going to be distances.
|
Distance Range |
Wins |
Runs |
Win SR |
Profit |
ROI |
|
Sprints |
343 |
1776 |
19.30% |
-175.25 |
-9.90% |
|
Middle |
183 |
780 |
23.50% |
1.69 |
0.20% |
|
Long |
94 |
308 |
30.50% |
14.07 |
4.60% |
Sprints are losing money where as middle distance races are break-even and long distance races are making a profit.
Using the filters:
Distance Winner
Last Won less than 7 days ago
Distance should be long
|
Wins |
Runs |
Win SR |
Profit |
ROI |
|
94 |
308 |
30.50% |
14.07 |
4.60% |
If you are not adverse to doing some small amount of analysis I would suggest that you find any runner who has won at the distance and had a winning race in the last 7 days. Then take a look at the race and analyse whether you feel this runner is going to be competitive in the race. By doing this you are going to have a significant amount of bets each year and the manual analysis will help to remove those runners that do not make a profit.
Could you define sprint, middle and long distances?
Everyone has their own definitions but I would say a sprint is 7 furlongs or less, middle is up to around 1 mile 5/6 furlongs and anything over is long distance.
That days since last won filter really looks good.
I will have to look into that one.
Thanks,
Ian
Hi R A that was very interesting i am sorry though you did’nt
do the same for COURSE & DISTANCE WINNERS as they origenaly
had the highest strike rate would have been interesting to see
what would have happend with the same filters in deed would it have overtaken
distance winners with it already starting out with a better strike rate the ROI would
also improve
regards
glen
Hi,
I have always looked at winning flat horese that run again within 10 days
Today there was 3.
2.20 Warwick Green Park won @ 9/1
2.30 Lutine Charlie 2nd at 15/8
4.30 Style and Panache 3rd at 7/2 (extra 6lbs did not help)
I mst strat looking at D and/or C&d in the future.
Thanks very intereesting
Tim
Hi,
I have always looked at winning flat horses that run again within 10 days
Today there was 3.
2.20 Warwick Green Park won @ 9/1
2.30 Lutine Charlie 2nd at 15/8
4.30 Style and Panache 3rd at 7/2 (extra 6lbs did not help)
I mst strat looking at D and/or C&d in the future.
Thanks very intereesting
Tim
Good reading but you have not looked at one set of stats which make all the difference, true, distance winners win a lot of the time and if you just blindly backed or dutched qualifiers you would be well out of pocket, my research shows that only back when one horse is the qaulifier, give it a try some big priced outsiders come in, if you want to play it safe just back 5/1 and under when they qualify, today 4 out of five have come in giving me 7/1 total odds, other days it can be much much higher
Thank you for your comment and the extra stats.