Guest post by Dave Renham from PunterProfits
Each month I write an article based on past trainer performance over a particular month. I have stated many times before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of March with data taken from 2003 to 2009.
Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.
All races (March 03-09) – 60 runs minimum (SR 14%+)
| Trainer | Wins | Runs | Strike Rate (%) | Profit | ROI (%) |
| G Swinbank | 19 | 89 | 21.4 | -£33.11 | -37.2 |
| A Turnell | 16 | 80 | 20.0 | +£5.88 | +7.3 |
| Mrs S Smith | 66 | 331 | 19.9 | +£158.21 | +47.8 |
| P Nicholls | 106 | 575 | 18.4 | -£93.20 | -16.2 |
| P Monteith | 22 | 123 | 17.9 | -£9.94 | -8.1 |
| D McCain Jnr | 30 | 174 | 17.2 | +£40.15 | +23.1 |
| P Hobbs | 97 | 563 | 17.2 | -£93.82 | -16.7 |
| J Mackie | 14 | 84 | 16.7 | +£31.10 | +37.0 |
| A King | 72 | 448 | 16.1 | -£113.61 | -25.4 |
| N Richards | 31 | 197 | 15.7 | -£73.75 | -37.4 |
| R H & Mrs S Alner | 12 | 77 | 15.6 | +£18.00 | +23.4 |
| V Dartnall | 15 | 98 | 15.3 | -£27.57 | -28.1 |
| N Henderson | 79 | 522 | 15.1 | -£77.01 | -14.8 |
| J Howard Johnson | 48 | 319 | 15.1 | -£78.18 | -24.5 |
| J Wade | 9 | 61 | 14.8 | -£17.57 | -28.8 |
| J O’Neill | 74 | 506 | 14.6 | +£5.39 | +1.1 |
| Miss E Lavelle | 20 | 137 | 14.6 | -£4.93 | -3.6 |
| H Daly | 42 | 290 | 14.5 | -£31.64 | -10.9 |
| J Spearing | 12 | 83 | 14.5 | +£13.30 | +16.0 |
| Mrs L Wadham | 16 | 113 | 14.2 | +£18.43 | +16.3 |
| J Cornwall | 10 | 71 | 14.1 | +£29.00 | +40.9 |
Sue Smith has a very good overall record in March, and although a 66/1 winner has made a big difference, even without that she has performed well. In 4 of the 7 years she has achieved a strike rate in excess of 20% and when you consider her strike rate for all months is around 13%, we can see that March is a month where her runners tend to peak. The betting market has been a good guide to the chances of her runners with favourites and second favourites combining to produce 39 wins from 95 runners (SR 41.1%) for a profit of £49.20 (ROI +51.8%).
Lucy Wadham, if you remember made a profit in February and has achieved this once again March. She is a lesser known trainer, but one who seems to be under the radar somewhat.
I often focus on the ‘best’ performing trainers in these articles, but it is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:
All races (March 03-09) – 60 runs minimum (SR 5.5% or lower)
| Trainer | Wins | Runs | Strike Rate (%) | Profit | ROI (%) |
| G Harker | 4 | 75 | 5.3 | -£58.30 | -77.7 |
| P Beaumont | 6 | 113 | 5.3 | +£15.00 | +13.3 |
| J A Geake | 4 | 76 | 5.3 | -£45.25 | -59.5 |
| D Wintle | 4 | 89 | 4.5 | -£53.75 | -60.4 |
| D Gandolfo | 3 | 67 | 4.5 | -£14.00 | -20.9 |
| Dr P Pritchard | 3 | 71 | 4.2 | -£33.00 | -46.5 |
| M Chapman | 3 | 78 | 3.9 | -£58.18 | -74.6 |
| C Down | 4 | 106 | 3.8 | -£60.00 | -56.6 |
| M Scudamore | 5 | 156 | 3.2 | -£107.00 | -68.6 |
| Mrs L Jewell | 2 | 65 | 3.1 | -£52.00 | -80.0 |
| N Meade | 2 | 69 | 2.9 | -£46.50 | -67.4 |
| M Gingell | 3 | 107 | 2.8 | -£56.25 | -52.6 |
| J Jenkins | 2 | 81 | 2.5 | -£74.57 | -92.1 |
| B Pollock | 1 | 66 | 1.5 | -£62.75 | -95.1 |
| M Sowersby | 0 | 63 | 0.0 | -£63.00 | -100.0 |
Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month.
With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types as it quite usual for a yard’s chasers to be at a different overall level to their hurdlers at this point of the season. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in March since 2003 (see overleaf):
All chases (March 03-09) – 30 runs minimum (SR 15.5%+)
| Trainer | Wins | Runs | Strike Rate (%) | Profit | ROI (%) |
| Miss H Dalton | 8 | 32 | 25.0 | +£10.80 | +33.8 |
| A Turnell | 8 | 34 | 23.5 | +£16.38 | +48.2 |
| Mrs S Smith | 36 | 162 | 22.2 | +£160.23 | +98.9 |
| J Wade | 7 | 32 | 21.9 | +£4.93 | +15.4 |
| C Mann | 13 | 61 | 21.3 | -£10.15 | -16.7 |
| O Sherwood | 11 | 53 | 20.8 | +£15.72 | +29.7 |
| L Lungo | 9 | 44 | 20.5 | -£3.13 | -7.1 |
| P Nicholls | 59 | 303 | 19.5 | -£71.31 | -23.5 |
| D McCain Jnr | 10 | 54 | 18.5 | -£2.94 | -5.5 |
| G L Moore | 14 | 76 | 18.4 | +£21.49 | +28.3 |
| A King | 18 | 98 | 18.4 | £8.20 | +8.4 |
| Miss E Lavelle | 8 | 45 | 17.8 | -£3.00 | -6.7 |
| C Grant | 6 | 34 | 17.7 | -£3.08 | -9.1 |
| H Daly | 22 | 125 | 17.6 | -£6.17 | -4.9 |
| T George | 18 | 109 | 16.5 | +£9.70 | +8.9 |
| N Richards | 8 | 50 | 16.0 | -£19.56 | -39.1 |
| J O’Neill | 28 | 176 | 15.9 | +£52.50 | 29.8 |
| I Williams | 14 | 88 | 15.9 | -£9.32 | -10.6 |
| P Hobbs | 32 | 202 | 15.8 | -£69.79 | -34.6 |
| J Cornwall | 10 | 64 | 15.6 | +£36.00 | +56.3 |
| Miss S Forster | 5 | 32 | 15.6 | +£15.50 | +48.4 |
| Mrs L Normile | 5 | 32 | 15.6 | +£2.44 | +7.6 |
| Miss H Knight | 13 | 84 | 15.5 | -£21.44 | -25.5 |
As we can see Sue Smith has excelled with her chasers and all her overall profits have come from them. 29 of her 36 winners have been in handicaps and it is definitely handicaps where we need to concentrate on as far as she is concerned. Let us now move to hurdle races:
All hurdle races (March 03-09) – 40 runs minimum (SR 14%+)
| Trainer | Wins | Runs | Strike Rate (%) | Profit | ROI (%) |
| Jim Best | 44 | 10 | 22.7 | +£7.81 | +17.8 |
| P Monteith | 68 | 14 | 20.6 | -£4.13 | -6.1 |
| P Hobbs | 314 | 59 | 18.8 | +£3.57 | +1.1 |
| J Mackie | 64 | 12 | 18.8 | +£35.60 | +55.6 |
| Mrs L Wadham | 76 | 14 | 18.4 | +£21.43 | +28.2 |
| Mrs S Smith | 142 | 26 | 18.3 | -£9.15 | -6.4 |
| P Nicholls | 233 | 38 | 16.3 | -£20.59 | -8.8 |
| R Fahey | 44 | 7 | 15.9 | +£3.55 | +8.1 |
| H Daly | 120 | 19 | 15.8 | -£14.47 | -12.1 |
| D McCain Jnr | 104 | 16 | 15.4 | +£29.72 | +28.6 |
| J Howard Johnson | 191 | 29 | 15.2 | -£43.91 | -23.0 |
| V Dartnall | 53 | 8 | 15.1 | -£11.05 | -20.9 |
| Miss E Lavelle | 74 | 11 | 14.9 | +£12.07 | +16.3 |
| J L Spearing | 54 | 8 | 14.8 | +£8.30 | +15.4 |
| A King | 278 | 41 | 14.8 | -£100.57 | -36.2 |
| R Ford | 41 | 6 | 14.6 | +£7.00 | +17.1 |
| S Burrough | 41 | 6 | 14.6 | +£12.50 | +30.5 |
| N Henderson | 301 | 44 | 14.6 | -£67.02 | -22.3 |
| N Richards | 125 | 18 | 14.4 | -£50.93 | -40.8 |
Some lesser known trainers dominate the top of this table (in terms of strike rate). Jim Best who tops the list should be noted when his runners are fancied as 9 of his 10 winners have come from the top 3 in the betting. Second in the list, Peter Monteith, should be noted in non handicap hurdles as he has saddled 11 winners from 27 in this sphere for a profit of £21.87 (ROI +81%). His handicap hurlde record is a poor 3 from 44 so these as best avoided it seems! John Mackie, third on the list, has been the opposite to Monteith with his handicappers providing all the winners (12 wins from 52); he is 0 from 12 in non handicaps.
All in all there seems to be some useful data here and hopefully you will find it helpful to your betting this month.
Dave Renham is a leading uk horse racing researcher. He has worked in the past for the RacingPost and the Racing and Football Outlook newspaper. His own website at www.PunterProfits.com is a great spot for finding out about profitable angles for your UK horse racing betting.
