King George VI Chase Preview 2011

It is Boxing Day and my favourite race of the year has come round again. I don’t have a rational reason for this but there is a cracking day’s racing happening today and for the first time in years I won’t be able to watch it as I have been told that I am going to see Ghost by the family!

This has meant that all my bets have had to be researched and placed already and as you may know I generally like to leave any analysis to the last minute. However the data came through in plenty of time this year for the King George and below is my analysis. Take a look and then place your vote for which runner you think will win the race, if you would like to leave a comment as to who your selection is and why then that would be awesome!

The Race Advisor selection polls have proven to be very accurate in the past and hopefully they will prove to be again today.

There are 8 runners in the race and I am going to use a combination of methods to analyse the race. These methods are form reading, ratings and trends.

First of all ratings and form reading…

Kauto Star

We don’t need to say that this is a superb horse and is currently second favourite. There has been good improvement over the last 4 races and he has a form rating that is second highest. Recent performances have been quite varied though and this lowers are confidence of the form ratings. The projected speed is good but not outstanding and is certainly possible of being competed with. Going, distance and track preferences are of course superb but the main concern for me here is that there are now other runners who can compete.

Nacarat

Looks to be one of the weaker runners in the race and although improving this could be a concern. The projected speed is the lowest in the field and the best ever speed on the track gives cause for concern. Even more worrying though is that if the ground remains Good to Soft then this is certainly not a strong point for this runner and could cause problems.

Golan Way

The last good performance from Golan Way was at a significantly lower form class level than today’s race. Immediately this begs the question can he get to the level required today? My feeling is no! While his raw form figures indicate that this would be a possibility his average speed over the last four races has not been good enough. Even more worrying is his performance at Kempton generally, he clearly is not a fan of this track.

Diamond Harry

This runner is another who does not look to have the necessary ability to win this race. Average form figures and below average speed figures give concern all round. This is the first time at Kempton as well. However in the last 90 days he has run against some good runners and his performance has shown improvement with this. There is potential here but this improvement will need to continue at a high level and I am not sure that it will.

Master Minded

The last good race from this runner had an exceptionally high form class figure, however overall the form ratings have been in decline over the last four races. We could get an exceptional or terrible race and I am not sure whether I would want my money to ride on this kind of possibility. The projected speed is good but again this is a first at Kempton. All in all I would be wary with this runner but there is the potential to win.

Somersby

Shows a very strong improvement recently with only a small amount of variance which means we can expect a good race. A high projected speed figure along with an excellent track and going figure gives me some confidence. A good average speed over the last four races is also a good sign but the concern is that in the last 90 days the horses being raced against have been more on a decline than an improvement. However I think this runner has potential and could just pull it out of the bag for a good each-way bet.

Long Run

The youngest and least experienced horse in the race at just 6 years old and with 6 runs has shown massive improvements in performance at high levels of racing and seems to be continuing in that way. The lack of experience gives a lower form figure but this is to be expected. The projection of speed is good and he has been racing against some fast runners recently. Coupled with this is a strong preference on the going and track which definitely gives a potential contender.

Captain Chris

Again the form ratings of this runner has been improving and are not looking as if they are going to stop. However the speed projection is poor and while he could beat weaker runners I think he may struggle in this field. The preferences for the track are definitely there but not as strong as others in this race and I think that the improvement required is going to be too much for him. Especially when we take into account the significant increase in distance!

Now let us take a look at some trends for this race. In brackets we have (wins – places – starts).

Age

5yo: 1-0-2

6yo: 2-4-13

7yo: 3-6-19

8yo: 1-3-28

9yo: 2-2-19

10yo: 0-4-10

11+: 1-0-9

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners won on last completed start

9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days

10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season

8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+

9 of 10 winners had run in 8 to 22 chases

10 of 10 winners had won 2 or more grade 1 chases

7 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd over this CD

Trainers

Paul Nicholls has won the race four times with Kauto Star.

Henrietta Knight has won this with Edredon Bleu and Best Mate in the past 10 years.

Nicky Henderson saddled the first 2 home last season and has seen over half his 11 representatives make the frame.

Irish-trained runners have produced 3 winners from 7 runners since 2001.

Price

7 of 10 favourites have won and backing favourites would have left you with a level stakes profit of 5.56.

Edredon Blue at 25/1 in 2003 has been only one winner to be sent off at odds greater than 8/1 in the past 10 years.

This shows us that based on trends we should be looking for a runner who…

• Is aged 6 or 7
• Won in last race
• Ran in the last 40 days
• Has run between 1 and 3 races this season
• Has won a race over 3 miles or longer before
• Have run in between 8 and 22 chase races
• Has won a minimum of 2 grade 1 chase races
• Has finished in the top 2 over the course and distance
• Has odds of less than 8/1

There are actually no runners that fit all of these criteria so we would need to loosen them slightly.

• Is aged 6 or 7
• Ran in the last 40 days
• Has run between 1 and 3 races this season
• Has won a race over 3 miles or longer before
• Have run in between 8 and 22 chase races
• Has won a minimum of 2 grade 1 chase races
• Has odds of less than 8/1

The only runner that meets these criteria is Long Run.

Long Run is clearly going to be a strong runner in this race and has every chance of winning and is going to be a bet as long as you can get odds of over 2. However I am fan of going for slightly bigger priced horses in this race for an each-way or place only.

Somersby would be my each way selection with good figures and good potential trends.

Let me know who you think will win by placing your vote below. It would be great to hear who you chose and why if you want to leave a comment as well. Have a great boxing day.

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