Hi all,
Well, it’s been a tough month for plenty of horse racing tipsters yours truly included although yet another profit has been banked for Eycatcher Pro subscribers.
Not sure about you but October is a month when I start to turn away from the flat and gravitate towards National Hunt racing and the jumpers we have come to love over the years. It all really begins in the coming few weeks with Chepstow, in less than two weeks and of course the first meeting of the new season at Cheltenham at the end of the month.
There are of course plenty of flat races to look forward to over the coming weeks with Champions Weekend, the Breeders Cup and of course historic handicaps such as the Cesarewitch at Newmarket and the November Handicap a Doncaster. But from an eyecatcher perspective, the emphasis is most definitely switching to the jumpers with a few all-weather horses mixed into the cocktail.
Newmarket Look Back
Backend Newmarket maidens are usually a decent source of future winners and this month we will see plenty of juvenile maiden races which will provide plenty of future three-year-old winners.
Last weekend saw the latest renewals of the Cambridgeshire Handicap and of course on the Arc. The latter race was taken in decisive fashion by Enable. She has to be rated as one of the best fillies of recent years. Whether she is as good as Treve, I am not sure, but there is every chance that we will see her as a 4-year-old with another tilt at the Arc on the cards. If she was to win next years race then we will be able to compare Enable with the great fillies & mares of the last 30 years. One thing that is certain, she will deservedly be crowned European Horse of the Year.
The Cambridgeshire was a personal triumph for Newmarket trainer Martyn Meade who had the first & fourth home in Saturday’s big handicap. Given a field of 35 went to post for the race that is a tremendous piece of training. The trainers successful weekend was capped by Aclaim who came with a strong finish to win the Group 1 Prix de la Foret at Chantilly on Arc Day. Weekends surely don’t come much better for smaller trainers, do they?
My performance of three-day Cambridgeshire meeting came from the Mark Johnston trained juvenile Elarqam. The colt had created a good impression when winning on his racecourse debut at York 18 days earlier and galloped on to powerfully for his rivals to land the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes over 7f at odds of 15/8. He clearly isn’t the finished article and the Son of Frankel out of a 1000 Guineas winner Attraction, also trained by Mark Johnston, has a bright future ahead. He probably needs a mile so the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster looks a more likely race than the Dewhurst if he has another run this season. I doubt he would want any softer ground than he faced here. His owner Hamdan Al Maktoum went to £1.6 million at the Newmarket Sales to acquire the colt and has a good set of juvenile colts for next season. Given how well he handled the track he has to be considered a live 2000 Guineas contender and he should stay 1m 2f as a three-year-old. I have had a nibble on him for the first colts classic of 2018.
Ante Post Advice – 2000 Guineas Newmarket 2018 – Elarqam – 20/1
One from Newmarket
You’re Fired – Karl Burke – The six-year-old looked in great shape before the Cambridgeshire. This was only his second run since April, had run with promise on his previous start when third at Doncaster. He only finished 9th, beaten just under 5 lengths by the winner but I noted him staying on strongly at the end of his race. He is in great form at present and fresher than most. He can surely add to his 6 career wins before the year is out. Worth noting he had 4 wins from 10 runs 40% +15.75 5 placed 50% when racing between 21 & 35 days since his last run. He is also 3 wins from 5 runs 60% +11.5 4 placed 80% in October & November.
This Weeks EyeCatcher’s
There are three further tracker horses for you to note from last weeks racing including my first jumps horse.
Tuesday 26th September
Chelmsford
Roman Holiday – Ed Vaughan – The filly had been steadily progressive winning three of her six starts between September 2016 and June of this year. Ran really badly when finishing last at Haydock in July. An 80-day absence suggests she wasn’t right that day. Returned to action in this 1m Class 4 handicap. The four-year-old didn’t make the best of starts and was held up in the rear. She made some headway inside the final furlong but was never really competitive in the race and was eventually beaten 4 ½ lengths into 6th. The race might well have been needed as all her three career wins have come when racing 23 to 37 days since her last run. Two of her wins have come on good to firm but she has also won on the Polytrack at Kempton.
Thursday 28th September
Chelmsford
Oh So Sassy – Chris Wall – The mare has dropped down to her last winning mark. She was running on nicely at the end of this 5f handicap when finishing 4th. The seven-year-old looks to be about to hit winning form. Her last win came on quick turf but she is arguably a better horse on the synthetics where her career record is 4 wins from 9 runs 44% +12.25 5 placed 56% (3 wins from 4 runs at Kempton) and she is 2 wins from 7 runs 4 placed in September/October.
Saturday 30th September
Market Rasen
I’m A Game Changer – Philip Hobbs – Came into the race after just seven starts under rules. The five-year-old had won a novice hurdle at Bangor in January and the followed up on his handicap debut at Ludlow a month later. Ended last season with a 4th placing in a valuable handicap hurdle at Newbury when sent off the 15/8 favourite. He wasn’t disgraced when 6th in this Market Rasen listed handicap hurdle. Given this was his first run since March he did well to get within 6 lengths of the winner. This run should have blown away the cobwebs and he looks like he can be competitive in some big handicap hurdles this autumn.
All that’s left now is to wish you a profitable week’s punting.
John
