Important Royal Ascot Trends

Day 1

Queen Anne Stakes

The Queen Anne Stakes is a fine opening race and tends to start the festival off with a bang. It is a race for 4yo+ thoroughbreds and this Group One race takes place over 1 mile. This race seems to be Frankie Dettori’s specialty as the legendary jockey has won this event on no less than 6 occasions.

Previous Results

Trends

• 12/19 winners have been either first or second favourite.
• 7/10 winners have been second favourite for a profit of 15.21 units.
• 10/19 winners last ran 31-60 days before the race.
• 14/19 winners have been 4 year olds.
• 12/19 winners have had exactly 1 run in the season prior to the event.

Analysis

The Queen Anne Stakes has been dominated by short priced winners in recent years. 5 of the last 6 winners have gone off at no longer than 11/8. Declaration of War is the exception in 2013. However, the race appears to be much tighter on this occasion with Tepin installed as favourite at best odds of 7/2.

Aiden O’ Brien has trained 3 winners in this race since 2006 and on each occasion his horse has set off at odds of at least 5/1. He has two entrants in this race but both Dick Whittington and Cougar Mountain are outsiders and likely to be outclassed.

Belardo looks like one to watch at 6/1 as this horse won the Lockinge Stakes and is a 4yo. He is also likely to be second favourite at race time so the Godolphin owned bay colt is certainly one to watch.

Kings Stand Stakes

This Group One event is the shortest race at the Ascot festival and the 5 furlong sprint is designed for pure speed merchants. Only horses aged 3yo+ are allowed enter in an event set to draw the cream of the sprinting crop.

Previous Results

Trends

• Only 2/19 favourites have won this race.
• 12/19 winners have been outside the top 3 in the betting.
• 4/5 winners have been 6 years old.
• On the last 6 occasions, the winner’s OR has been between 111 and 116.
• 10/19 winners have had no previous run that season.
• 10/11 winners finished first or second in their last race.

Analysis

Bookmakers absolutely love this race because favourites hardly ever win. No winner has ever set off at odds of less than 11/4 and that trend looks likely to continue this year as Profitable is the current 5/1 favourite. Two time winner Sole Power has to be looked at and may tempt punters at 10/1 although he finished 11^th in his only run this year which doesn’t bode well.

Acapulco is an interesting option as this filly is currently 3^rd or 4^th favourite and won her only appearance so far this year. Jungle Cat has an OR of 113 and was just ½ l behind Profitable in his last race and is worth considering at 16/1.

St James Palace Stakes

This Group One event is one of the biggest betting occasions on Day One and takes place over 1 mile. It tends to attract the best milers in Europe with wonderhorse Frankel a winner in 2011.

Previous Results

Trends

• The favourite or joint favourite has won the race on 12/19 occasions.
• 6 of the last 8 winners have had an SP of 5/4 or shorter with 5 of these winners starting at odds-on.
• Aiden O Brien has trained the winner on 7 occasions since 2000 but only has one winner since 2009 which was Gleneagles in 2015.
• 12/19 winners have had their last run in the 16-30 day bracket.
• 11/19 winners had also won their previous race.

Analysis

This has become a race the bookmakers dread as odds-on favourites have dominated the winner’s circle in recent years. With this in mind, The Gurkha is likely to attract a lot of attention and we expect him to start off at odds-on; he is currently at 5/4.

The 3yo bay colt ticks most of the boxes having won his previous race and by race day it will have been 30 days since that run. With Aiden O’Brien as the trainer, it is difficult to see beyond the favourite here.

Day Three will be published tomorrow morning before 10 am. Be sure not to miss out!

Day 2

Duke of Cambridge Stakes

This event has only been run at Ascot since 2004 and used to be called the Windsor Forest Stakes. Only fillies aged 4yo+ are allowed enter this 1 mile Group Two event. Traditionally, fillies tend to be retired for breeding purposes after their 3yo season so it’s hoped events such as this one can persuade owners to allow their fillies to continue competing.

Previous Results

Trends

7/12 winners have been either first or second favourite.

Betting on second favourites since 2004 would yield a profit of over 11 units.

9/12 winners had their previous run in the 16-60 day bracket.

8 /12 winners had exactly 1 season run.

11/12 winners had OR of at least 103

The last 7 races have been won by 4 year olds.

Analysis

In recent years the top 2 in the betting market have dominated this event. Usherette is the clear favourite with a best price of 2/1. Last year’s winner Amazing Maria is second favourite at 6/1.

Amazing Maria fits neatly into the first or second favourite trend and it will be 45 days since her last run by the time the race comes around although it’s unclear whether she will be entered. However, she was 5½ lengths behind Usherette in that race and will oppose her rival on similar terms plus she is now a 5 year old. The favourite is a 4 year old, 4/4 on the flat and is definitely the one to beat.

Prince of Wales Stakes

This is often seen as the highlight of day 2 and this Group One race features thoroughbreds aged 4yo+ that race over 1m 2f. The massive £525,000 prize fund means the cream of the crop are often showcased in this event.

Previous Results

Trends

13/19 winners also won their previous race.

13/19 winners have been favourite or second favourite.

17/19 winners have been in the first three horses in the betting.

17/19 winners had either 0 or 1 run that season.

14/16 winners had an SP of 5/1 or less.

Analysis

This race is traditionally won by one of the favoured horses and the market suggests the event is between favourite Al Shin Hikari at best price of 2/1 and Time Test at 3/1. If you’re interested in Found, shop around because you can get odds ranging from 5/1 to 10/1 at present.

The above are the only 3 horses at or below the SP of 5/1 and history suggests the race is between the trio. With 4 races this season, Found doesn’t meet the trend criteria but both Al Shin Hikari and Time Test have run just once this season and both were victorious.

Royal Hunt Cup

This 1 mile event is one of the most open races in the entire Ascot festival as there are occasionally fields of up to 30 horses. This heritage handicap race is for horses aged 3yo+ and punters are advised to avoid favourites as none has won the event since 1996.

Previous Results

Trends

8/10 winners have had an SP of 10/1 or higher.

16/19 winners have been aged 4 or 5.

13/13 winners had an OR of 93-103.

9/10 winners had previously won over the distance.

Analysis

According to the trends it would be wise to avoid Convey as horses at single digits in the betting don’t tend to win the race and favourites have won just 1 of the last 19 races.

In a wide open race, punters must look for value and Portage seems as good a candidate as any at 14/1. The 4yo won his previous race, is a former winner over 1 mile at Ascot and has an OR of 101.

Day 3

The Ribblesdale Stakes

This is a Group Two event for fillies aged 3 years only and takes place over 1m 4f. Trainers usually choose between this event and the Epsom Oaks with the Ribblesdale Stakes deemed to be less competitive. It’s a race where the top end of the betting market is usually the best place to look but this year’s event appears to be extremely tough to call.

Previous Results

Trends

9/19 winners also won their last race.

15/17 winners won one of their previous 2 races.

15/19 winners were in the first 5 horses in the betting.

7/9 winners have had an SP of between 5/2 and 6/1.

7/8 winners previously won at Group or Listed level.

Analysis

This is not a race known for its trends but we can see that horses towards the top of the market are worth considering. At the time of writing, only Even Song, Somehow and Architecture fall within the 5/2 and 6/1 SP bracket so it may be worth focusing on one of the three.

While all three have won one of their previous two races, only Architecture has won this season to date although she did not fare well last time out.

The Ascot Gold Cup

This is the highlight of Ladies Day and for many, it is the top event in the entire festival. This year it is being held in honour of the Queen’s 90^th birthday. This Group One event is for 4yo+ and is a genuine test of stamina as it is held over 2m 4f. Aiden O’Brien has dominated this event in recent years winning 6 of the last 10 including 4 in a row with Yeats from 2006-2009.

Previous Results

Trends

5 of the last 10 winners have had an SP of 6/4 or less.

Only 2 of the last 19 winners have been 7yo+.

The last 4 races have been won by 4yo.

11/19 winners were first or second favourite.

16/19 winners had their last run in the 16-60 day bracket.

10/19 winners also won their previous race.

Analysis

The stats tell you to discard horses older than 6 years and focus on horses at the top end of the market. Aiden O’Brien is the leading trainer in this event and it so happens that he has a couple of horses that tick all the boxes. Both Order of St. George (13/8) and Bondi Beach (8/1) are both at the top end of the market, are 4 year olds and won their last race. While the former may be favourite, Bondi Beach appears to offer far better value.

Day 4

King Edward VII Stakes

Although it is a Group Two event, the King Edward VII Stakes has a prize fund that’s not a million miles off Group One level. It’s a 1m 4f event for 3yo colts only. The race usually features colts that were unable to compete at the Epsom Derby and typically includes a range of high quality competitors. This is yet another race where it pays to look at the top end of the betting market.

Previous Results

Trends

15/19 winners have been first, second or third favourite in the betting.

The last 19 winners have all had at least one run in the previous 60 days.

11/19 winners have had exactly 2 runs that season.

Analysis

Beacon Rock is the current favourite and on the surface seems like he has a good chance as he won on his last outing. However, A.P O’Brien has only won this event once and that was in a poor 5 runner race back in 2004. In fact, that was the only Irish trained winner of this event in the last 41 years.

U.S Army Ranger is another horse at the top of the betting market and has won 2 of 3 races this year with a second place last time out. However, he is also an O’Brien trained horse. Humphrey Bogart is an interesting option at 10/1 as he defeated another market leader Carntop earlier this year.

John Gosden has trained 3 winners in this race since 2005 and has several entries with Linguistic and Cymric among the leading contenders.

Coronation Stakes

This event is for 3yo fillies only and is a Group One race which takes place over 1 mile. This race typically features the best 3yo fillies around with those who ran in the 1,000 Guineas or the Irish 1,000 Guineas typically taking part in a bid to show they are the leading performer of the season.

Previous Results

Trends

12/19 winners have been first or second favourite in the market.

12/19 winners had never previously won at the distance.

9/10 winners have done so at an SP of 8/1 or less.

The last 7 winners had an OR of 108-115.

Analysis

Despite the perception of this being an open race, only 5 winners have been outside the top 3 in the betting since 1997. It so happens that the market has 3 clear leaders (Ballydoyle, Nemoralia and Minding); all of which are 10/3 or less at present. Past trends suggest we should stick to this trio.

Ballydoyle fits within the OR range (113) and has yet to win over a mile so we have to take this filly seriously. The other pair have both won over the distance and Minding has an OR of 120 so only the favourite meets all the criteria listed above. However, Minding did beat Ballydoyle by 3 ½ lengths in May 2016 so despite the trends, Minding appears to be the one to beat.

Day 5

Hardwicke Stakes

This is a Group Two event for 4yo+ and takes place over 1m 4f. It’s a race that’s been dominated by Sir Michael Stoute in recent years.

Previous Results

Trends

6/10 winners were trained by Sir Michael Stoute.

9/10 winners had an SP of 8/1 or less.

14/19 had either 1 or 2 season runs.

The last 7 winners had an OR of 111-121.

The last 8 winners were 4yo.

18/19 runners had their last run 8-60 days before the race.

Analysis

There are only 6 runners with an SP of 8/1 and only 3 of them are 4yo; Exosphere, Dartmouth and Simple Verse. As the first two are trained by Sir Michael Stoute, they must be regarded as serious contenders. Exosphere beat Simple Verse by 4 lengths just 49 days before this race but he does fall just outside all trends with an OR of 110.

Dartmouth was also a winner last time out and has an OR of 114 and with runs this season (both wins) while Exosphere has had one. Although Dartmouth fits more of the trends, the suspicion is that Exosphere may be the classier horse.

Diamond Jubilee Stakes

For most racegoers, this is the highlight of the final day at Ascot and it features world class sprinters competing in a Group One event over 6 furlongs. It was previously known as the Golden Jubilee Stakes but changed its name in 2012 as a celebration of the Queen reaching yet another milestone in her reign. The race is open to horses aged 3yo+.

Previous Results

Trends

14/19 winners had 1 or 2 season runs.

Only 4/19 favourites have won.

7/10 winners had an SP of 9/1 or higher.

The last 10 winners had an OR of 111+. 9 of these 10 had a rating of 111-119 with the brilliant Black Caviar the only exception with 132.

Analysis

Punters would be well served to look for value as mid and long shots have performed well in this event over the years. Only one horse over the age of 5 has won this race in the last 8 years.

So we should be looking for horses in the double digits with 1-2 runs this season, aged 3-5 with an OR of 111+. There are several candidates including Strath Burn at 14/1, Maatmu at 25/1 and Home of the Brave at 16/1. The last option is especially intriguing as the Godolphin owned colt has won four Class 1 races and narrowly defeated Convey last time out. James Doyle was the jockey for 4 of the colt’s 5 career wins so take special note if he is on board again.

Wokingham Stakes

This is a popular event with punters but also with the bookies as this 6 furlong sprint has had fields of up to 30 runners in the past. This heritage handicap event is open to 3yo+ and is one of the most exciting races with incredibly tight victories a feature.

Previous Results

Trends

16/19 winners last ran 8-60 days before the event.

12/19 winners were among the first four horses in the betting market.

8/9 winners were 4 or 5 year olds.

10/10 winners had previously won over the distance.

Analysis

The importance of the draw is greatly overstated in this event but there has been a reasonably even spread of winners from stalls 1-30. At present, the market has yet to get moving with most of the entrants in the 20/1-33/1 range at the moment.

2014 winner Baccarat and last year’s winner Interception both run again and both can be taken at 20/1. However at 7yo and 6yo respectively, they would need to buck recent trends in order to win again as they were both 5yo when winning in the past.

Current second favourite Brando looks interesting as he won the last time he raced over the distance and has a first and second place to his name over 5f this season. Market leader Outback Traveller is in no type of form and may be best overlooked.

Flash Fire and Mutawathea were first and second respectively in a 7f event at Ascot in May so both must be given due consideration. However, Flash Fire has yet to win over 6f while Mutawathea did win a 6f event but it was in 2014.