Welcome to the Race Advisor’s live blog for the Cheltenham Festival 2015 Day 1. From 12:30pm on Tuesday 10th March I will be blogging live race analysis and conversation to see if we can find the winners at Cheltenham throughout the days racing. We also have Eddie who will be posting updates live from the paddock at Cheltenham to give us the latest information.
This is an interactive event and you can chat with me by clicking on the Comments link under each of our live blog posts.
This is a free event, but if you’d like to make a donation to cover the running costs then you can do that here.
£25 on douvan with will hills which will win lol if not free £25 bet to put on faugheen. If douvan wins £25 pound on faugheen from profit then back on betfair for back ups with 3 free bets when the 2nd favourites wins happy times !!!
Great approach Rich, and thank you for sharing. Good luck 🙂
In the first it is highly unlikely any horse other than Douvan or L’ami Serge win. I am playing it safe and backing both to win to guarantee a profit either way
I have Jollyallan ahead of both Douvan and L’ami Serge.
Willie Mullins claims Douvan better than Faugheen – best horse he ever had
Thanks for the heads up Dennis, I actually have another horse instead of Faugheen in the 15:20 I like!
What do you like about Jollyallan?
My own ratings favour it. But Douvan is hurt a bit in my analysis due to having only two runs. And, to my shame, I found error in my calculations. Oh well.
I know that feeling Panu, it has happened to me before with calculations and I’m sure will again.
1 30 jolly Allan and QEWY 205 UNDESCEAUX 320 JEZKI 400 Annie power look the best bets today my lay selections for today are ALVISIOVILLE TELLUS MORE 130 JOSSESHILL 205 BLACK THUNDER AND GALLANT OSCAR 240 POLLY PEACHUM 400 AND KILLALQUAY in the 515
Thank you for posting George
using trends I have Jollyalan too but moneys down on money back websites i.e. Hills returning money if Douvan loses and Paddypower doing same is L’Ami Serge loses.
Very sensible to use the offers available when they’re there Ian.
Good choices Tim and doing a Dutch bet on them is a strong staking approach
First race looks to be between 2 horses, so I’ve backed L’Ami Serge to win and looking for the free bets from Hills, Coral and PP. It has to be done! Ha Ha
Pleased to see you’re taking advantage of the bookie offers Mel 🙂
Indeed, Michael. Betbright had a great weekend offer for the 6 weekends, whereby depending on the size of bets you made, they would add increments of £5 as free bets for Cheltenham. I amassed £180 but not had the opportunity to use them today as other bookmakers are more generous.
Lami Serge for me too.
Thanks for letting us know Wendy.
I an concentrating on the handicaps but the 4 mile is an interesting race too
Thanks John, looking forward to your thoughts on handicap races.
Mullins 1 2 3?
What is your thinking John?
Afternoon all
Afternoon Paul.
I’m leaning towards Seedling in the first, but Shaneshill looks like a contender too
This is a great idea btw Michael
I’me going for Hurricane fly in the Champion Mullins doesn’t send them over for the good of it
I feel it will be fought out between his two and the price is right for FLY.
I will also be laying the new one.
All the best to every one and have a good day
Bob (Scouse)
Thanks Bob, looking forward to hearing your thoughts on others throughout the day as well 🙂
Backed L’ami Serge ante @ 10’s E/W i have also opted today for a half stake on Tell us more
Thanks for letting us know Jimbo. More info coming in a moment.
C4 team are saying that jockeys are reporting the ground as dead?
Getting confirmation Paul.
For me 1st race L’ami Serge and Jollyallan. I think im right in saying favourites don’t win this race often so layed Douvan
Good luck Wayne, not sure how often favs win this race at the moment.
Hi Michael, do you have a link to the Dynamic System software you’re using? It sounds interesting.
It’s not currently available, it’s my system builder combined with a bit of excel tweaking afterwards at the moment 🙂
i have been figuring on the going being good or faster but maybe best to see the first race before committing to the later races, fwiw i think Faugheen will win.
The first race is going to be very revealing on ground as you say.
I might regret not putting a unit or two on Shaneshill
Time of the first will be very interesting
It will be very interesting.
One horse book at the moment!
Well i’ve gone for Douvan,Un De Sceaux,Faugheen and Annie Power in a win lucky fifteen and L’Ami Serge,Vibrato Valtat,The New One and Carole’s Spirit in a each way lucky 15.
In the first i’ve done Douvan to win and seedless each way.Fingers crossed
Good luck Terry.
Ruby – “ground is dead it wants to be this is a winter sport”
Interesting, that’s not what it looks like to me.
JH has been to Yogi Breisner’s, the jumping guru, who worked previously with Long Run and that is a big positive. He hasn’t jumped well in his races so far but looks like the sort of horse who will jump better in a faster run race. He jumped the last two at Doncaster at speed well! Well suited by good ground and is 1,1,2,1 over 2 miles when good is the going description and that second was at last years Festival when second to Vautour in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. Another positive is the record of jockey Barry Geraghty at two miles at the festival – 7 wins and 10 places from 16 rides (43.75% wins, 62.50% win/place) with a +16.01 profit to SP
UDS looked relaxed in the paddock… just need to get to the start safely – JH e/w for me took 14/1 last night
Thanks for the update John. 14/1 on Josses Hill is what he’s at on Betfair at the moment.
Whatever your fancy outside UTS some great each way value in the race
Thanks Michael
On to the next on my win lucky 15 with Un De Sceaux and a each way saver on Vibrato Valtat
Doing well so far Terry 🙂
Breathtaking!!
2:40 – sort of race you need to be looking to dutch two or three
Ned Stark – Trained by Alan King, I have been trying to find ways to oppose this one but I keep coming back to this seven year old. He first came onto my radar when winning a decent handicap over an extended 2m 6f at Newbury at the end of November when he shaped that day like a horse who was the right type for this race. After that win he got a try over these fences when finishing 4th behind the useful Pitt Zigg. Last time out he showed his stamina when winning over 3m 1f at Wetherby at the end of January. The only slight concern is that the selection has yet to race in a big field like this over fences but that slight reservation apart his trainer knows how to win this race having won it in 2011 and he has made no secret that he believes that this one is one of his best chances of Festival success this year.
The Druids Nephew – Not as strong on the trends profile as the other two horses but he looks to have to have been trained for this and trainer Neil Mulholland has once again booked Barry Geraghty for the ride. Barry was in the saddle when the eight year old ran an excellent second beaten 1 ½ lengths by Sam Winner here over 3m 3f. He was then 7th in the Hennessey, but he travelled well for a long way in that race and was give a nice prep for this over hurdles 45 days ago. He must surely go well!
My final poke at the race last night
Gevrey Chambertin – David Pipe won this race in 2008 and his seven year old must hold a good each way chance in this years renewal. A top class handicap hurdler over three miles. He was highly tried when going novice chasing last season. He finally got his head in front in this sphere with an unconvincing win in a novice chase at Bangor in October. Two poor runs followed but he returned back to form in the first time blinkers at Newbury in December. Making all that day he got into a really good jumping rhythm and stayed on well to win a shade cosily. Clearly a talented, possibly quirky, horse he is 9lb lower in this sphere than over hurdles so he has scope for improvement. Ground and distance shouldn’t be a problem and his prominent running style is an asset in big field handicaps here. Granted he has yet prove that an undulating track like Cheltenham is his sort of track and an even bigger concern is whether the blinkers will have the same effect as they did at Newbury. At 16/1 I am happy to take the chance they will work again and if they do he is capable of a very big run off this sort of chase mark.
Ned Stark for me, nice profile for improvement and sure to be well prepared by Alan King who knows how to produce them for Cheltenham
Interesting Stat
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
Interesting stat, thanks John.
Build dynamic system quicker lol
Thank god the 1st winning race for me but im on the Ruby Walsh 4 timer and treble as well
Congratulations on the first winning race Wayne and the other bets you’ve got already.
Cheers Michael but still 1 and 2 races to go before my 4 timer and treble comes in but halfway there so fingers crossed
Paddock info seems to be the clincher at the momo
Absolutely Arron, it shows how good the information straight from the paddock can be!
Thats a relief, i backed The new one E/W @ 9/2 and faugheen @ 6/4
I believe bet alc said jezki in his Yankee
If Faugheen wins this it will be carnage for the bookies
It will indeed 😀
LIKE YOU I CAN ONLY SEE THE FRONT 2 IN THE MARKET TROUBLING THE JUDGE
7 wins in a row, impressive animal.
Very impressive animal.
best horse won but some poor jockeyship there…. Ruby allowed to dictate
Eddie should think about a late info service!!
I’ll let him know Jimbo.
Polly Peachum small ew and also in the without the fav market at 4.5 for me.
Fresh and improvement to come with better going and likely to be well prepared by NH.
TBH I dont think annie will be beat as Mullins is a master at bringing one to cheltenham without a run
Awaiting fourth leg of my lucky 15 Annie Power
Good luck Bob
Unlucky there… AP was going to win easy!
Absolutely, that’s something that can’t be accounted for.
That unfortunate fall, has saved the bookies lifes. Pleased the horse is up and ok
It has indeed, the bookies got lucky.
Little Jon for me with a nice little claimed on board
Good luck Arron.