How To Calculate Permed Bets

Last week we suggested a betting structure based on permutating a large number of selections into groups to reduce the staking expenses. Subsequently we have been asked to show an accurate way of calculating the returns, which we are more than happy to do and will use the basis of last week’s article regarding teams that draw away from home as an example.

We advocated that the selections be divided into three groups of four matches each, with the instruction that we were perming any one from four in each group. A total of (4x4x4) 64 bets.

The teams that drew are highlighted in bold with the odds for the draw alongside.

Fulham v Manchester City

Blackpool v Crystal Palace (5/2)

Queens Park Rangers v Swansea City (9/4)

Stockport v Brentford

MK Dons v Southampton

Walsall v Colchester

Oldham v Brighton

Southend v Carlisle (9/4)

Leeds v Millwall

Northampton v Morecambe

Cheltenham v Port Vale (5/2)

Dagenham & Redbridge v Macclesfield

The most accurate way to settle this bet is to take your unit stake (we will use £1) and calculate each of the winning selections in group one as singles. Ie £1 @ 5/2 = £3.50 & £1 @ 9/4 = £3.25.

Now add the two returns together (£6.75) and apply this figure to the winning selection(s) in group two (£6.75 @ 9/4 = £21.94).

Repeat the process for group three, and the total return is (£21.94 @ 5/2) £76.79.

Note: If there had been two or more winning selections in group 3 (for example), the calculation would have been ([£21.94 @ price 1] + [£21.94 @ price 2] + [£21.94 @ price 3]).

This only represents a profit of £12.79 on the bet based on last weekends results, but a system needs to be watched over a period of time to judge whether the returns are viable – indeed, to ascertain if any system works.

Therefore, using the “away score distribution” table on www.statto.com as demonstrated last week, the twelve games next weekend with the highest potential for draws are as follow:-

Prem: Chelsea v Villa (Villa´s away draw % = 36% – Av. odds for a draw =3/1)

Prem: Hull City v Fulham (40% – 12/5)

Prem: West Ham United v Stoke City (50% – 11/5)

Champ: Peterborough v Bristol City (37% – 12/5)

Champ: Plymouth v Blackpool (37% – 12/5)

Champ: Newcastle v Nottingham Forest (Play on Monday – 50% – 9/4)

League 1: Colchester v Wycombe (37% – 11/4)

League 1: Huddersfield v Charlton (37% – 9/4)

League 2: Bradford v Dagenham & Redbridge (44% – 12/5)

League 2: Macclesfield v Cheltenham Town (44% – 5/2)

League 2: Morecombe v Torquay (44% – 5/2)

League 2: Rochdale v Grimsby (44% – 3/1)

If you have any questions regarding this type of betting pattern, or systems that can be used to take advantage of it, please do not hesitate to make a comment.

European Champions League Update

In our most recent Champions League preview, we introduced spread betting for sporting events, and highlighted the Chelsea v Inter Milan tie as an example. Subsequent to Inter Milan progressing through to the quarterfinal stage, the spread has now changed to Buy 60 – Sell 57. This means that if you bought Inter Milan at “31” before the Chelsea match, you could sell now at “57” and make an instant 26x your stake value. The alternative to this would be to keep your trade until after the tie against CSKA Moscow when there are four possible scenarios (assuming you bought at “31”).

Inter Milan lose in the quarterfinals = 25 points. You would lose 6x your unit stake

Inter Milan are beaten in the semi-finals = 50 points. You win 19x your unit stake

Inter Milan are the beaten finalists = 75 points. You win 44x your unit stake

Inter Milan win the Champions League = 100 points. You win 69x your unit stake

Again, if you have any questions regarding spread betting, please let us know.