Winter cannot be ignored in the Nassau Stakes which is the highlight of the third day of Glorious Goodwood. The Aidan O’Brien trained horse has the edge on ratings but So Di Mar looks overpriced on form and historical figures.
The race is a Group 1 contest for fillies and mares aged three or older. The younger generation get an allowance of eight pounds so any horse that beats Winter under these conditions will have to be a superstar. So Di Mar showed that kind of potential as a young horse but the four-year-old has not lived up to expectations.
Winter won the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket, beating her stable mate Rhododendron by 2 lengths. The runner-up had no luck in running but the best horse on the day won the race. Winter was in command entering the final furlong and stayed on strongly to record a convincing win.
Rhododendron was beaten by Enable by five lengths in the Oaks but in view of that horse’s demolition of the King George field that wasn’t bad form. Enable is now the favourite for the Arc in October and Rhododendron was not too far behind off level weights in the Oaks.
On ratings, Enable will almost certainly end the season as the best three-year-old filly in Europe and a clash with Winter would be interesting. Enable would come out on top based on collateral form but that is not an exact science. Enable bypassed Goodwood to take advantage of age and gender allowances in the King George.
Winter followed up her Classic win at Newmarket by winning the Irish 1,000 Guineas at the end of May. Roly Poly was almost five lengths off the pace in second place and that horse has since won two Group 1 races so the form is outstanding.
On her latest start, Winter bear Roly Poly at Group 1 level at Royal Ascot, this time by two and a quarter lengths. The horse did edge right in the final furlong as did Roly Poly but the margin of victory flattered that horse. Hydrangea was a neck farther back so it’s unlikely she can reverse the form at Goodwood.
The evidence and form suggest Winter is a good thing but So Mi Dar represents the each-way value, even with the additional eight pounds to carry compared to the Classic generation horses. So Mi Dar did not run in the Oaks last season, despite being prominent in ante post betting.
So Mi Dar has won four of five career starts and was only beaten on the last outing. The horse ran to a Racing Post Rating of 115 in that race while Winter recorded a mark of 119 at Ascot. Those figures suggest So Mi Dar can’t beat Winter and the favourite must not be opposed but So Mi Dar looks a bet to nothing to make the payout places.
Minding won the Nassau Stakes last season after winning the Oaks and Winter can complete a double with a Classic at Goodwood this year while So Mi Dar is good enough to get placed.
Tip: Winter to win the Nassau Stakes at 7/4 with Bet365
