At the time of writing this, Europe’s richest horse race is about to be run. I am hoping that Enable will have shown why she remains one of the best middle-distance fillies we have seen in recent years, and win her second successive Arc.
On Saturday it’s the second leg of the Autumn Double, with the latest running of the Dubai £500,000 Cesarewitch (Heritage Handicap) over a marathon 2m 2f. The race is part of a cracking day’s racing at headquarters, which also features the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes, which is probably the most prestigious race for juveniles in Europe.
It’s all part of the Dubai Future Champions Festival, which starts on Friday, with the Group 1 bet365 Fillies Mile for juvenile fillies, and the 1m 4f bet365 Old Rowley (Heritage Handicap). A decent sized field can be expected for this handicap for 3-year-olds.
If that wasn’t enough for you, Chepstow holds it’s first jumps meeting of the winter on Saturday & Sunday, with the £50,000 Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle the feature race on Saturday, and the Grade Two, Persian War Novices’ Hurdle, the highlight of the Sunday card.
For me, this Chepstow meeting is when the National Hunt season really gets underway. No doubt some of the winter stars will be having their first runs of the season, as the likes of Cue Card, Silviniaco Conti and Blaklion have done in recent seasons.
You Gotta Love Laurens!
Laurens made it seven wins from ten starts when taking the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday. The 3-year-old who won the Fillies Mile as a juvenile. She has been a credit to connections. She started-off the season when runner-up in the 1000 Guineas, before going on to take a Group 1 and the French Oaks a month later. Her Sun Chariot success was her 4 th Group 1 win of the season.
For me Laurens has gone a bit under the radar this summer, and once again was allowed to go off at generous odds, on this occasion 11/4. Maybe it’s because three of her Group 1 successes have come in France & Ireland…
What a fantastic filly she is, and a credit to trainer Karl Burke, who’s now trained five Group 1’s this flat season.
Flaming Spear, trained by Dean Ivory, could only finish 5th of 15 in the Challenge Cup handicap over Ascot’s 7f distance on Saturday. The six-year-old, not for the first time, made a bit of a hash of the start. That didn’t cost him victory but certainly didn’t help his cause either.
He seemed to have beenn set too much to do by his apprentice jockey, and was finishing race really well from off the pace. The trainer form was a bit of concern, coming into the race 37 days and 47 runners since his last winner. Once he hits form, there is a big handicap in the horse.
He is entered in the 1m Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day, and that race could be ideal. As, once again, he shaped like a mile is what he needs now. He is a best priced 14/1 for that race, and if he runs, and gets some ease underfoot, it looks like a race that he could win.
Saturday 13th October – The Dubai £500,000 Cesarewitch (Heritage Handicap) – 2m 2f
It’s not often that you have a horse race that starts in one county and ends in another. But that’s the case with the second leg of the Autumn Double, which begins in Cambridgeshire and ends in Suffolk.
An average of 33 runners have run in the race in the past 10 years, so it can be a difficult puzzle for punters to solve. Last year the race was won by the Roger Charlton, with Withold, who landed a bit of an ante-post gamble in the process, being sent-off the 5/1 favourite on the day.
It was also the second successive win in the race for Champion Jockey Silvestre De Sousa who had taken the 2016 renewal with Sweet Selection at 7/1. The last two winners of the race may have been well found in the market, but since 2018 there have also been winners at 25/1, 50/1 x2 and 66/1 x2. So, don’t be put off if you fancy a big priced horse, as they can often pop-up.
Are there are any other trends worth noting? As a bit of a change I have focused on some negative stats.
The results below contain 10 winners from 330 runners 40 placed
- Horses within 11lb of the top weight:
- 2 winners from 110 runners
- A/E 0.37
- Stall: 25+
- 1 winner from 105 runners
- 5 placed
- A/E 0.28
The only winner to defy a high draw was Never Can Tell in 2011, who was given a great ride by Frankie Dettori to win from stall 36! So it’s possible to win from a high draw, but it doesn’t happen often!
- Last Time Out Placing 7th or worse:
- 0 winners from 117 runners
- 6 placed
- Maximum Distance won 1m 7f or shorter:
- 1 winner from 89 runners
- 5 placed
On the positive side those horses who had run in a Group 1, Group 2 or Group 3 race have produced the following set of results:
7 winners from 139 runners
SP Profit +71
If you’re looking for a profitable angle, you could do worse than look at runners with the following traits:
Highest Class Run: Group 1, 2 or 3
Last Time Out Placing: Top 6
In the past ten years these have delivered:
7 winners from 84 runners
SP Profit +126.5
21 placed (each way +173.38)
That’s 70% winners, and 53% placed from 25% of the total runners.
The Week Ahead: A Trainer Stats Perspective
Time has beaten me this week, but here are a couple of trainer stats to keep an eye on for Newmarket later in the week, and one for tomorrow.
Trainer Ruth Carr doesn’t send many runners to Windsor. In the past 5-years she had:
2 winners from 8 runners
Strike Rate 25%
SP Profit +4.5
Place Strike Rate 40%.
She saddles Racquet in the amateur rider’s race at 17:05 on Monday.
Trainer Henry Candy’s runners are always worth a second look at Newmarket. At the October/November meetings he’s had:
4 winners from 6 runners
Strike Rate 67%
SP Profit +16
Place Strike Rate 83%.
Should he have any runners at the track on Friday & Saturday, they will be worth some support.
Until next week.
All the best,
for The Race Advisor