A shorter article than normal this week as I spent most of last week enjoying a bit of a break away from horse racing and only got back on Saturday lunchtime.
Not sure about anyone else but I am getting tired with all the soft ground that is about. Most of my eyecatchers prefer quick summer ground and they are just not getting their favoured surface. We can hope July is better than June on the weather front and we start to see some genuine summer ground.
Due to the lack of eyecatchers, only two this week, I thought I would do something slightly different this week and begin by looking at a few horses to watch out for at this weeks Newmarket July meeting and also look at a horse that looks a backable price for York’s John Smith Cup on Saturday. Finally, I will look at a trainer who’s horses are always worth a second look at Newmarket’s July Meeting.
Newmarket July Festival – Horses to Note
Falmouth Stakes – Euro Charline – Marco Botti –
The mare hasn’t won a race since taking the Grade 1 Beverley D’ Stakes at Arlington Park in August 2014 but she has run plenty of decent races since including when beaten just a length in this race last year. The five year old was also an excellent 2nd behind Belardo in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes in May. This race has been her target, ever since that race and she can go well as long as the ground is no worse than good come Friday. The 12/1 generally available looks solid each way value if she gets her ground.
July Cup – Don’t Touch – Richard Fahey –
Clearly has to prove he is up to Group 1 standard but he is a tough progressive sprinter and if you can get any 14/1 about his chances that looks solid each way value to me.
Bunbury Cup – Can’t Change It & George Bowen –
Buckstay was well backed over the weekend and all the 12/1 available has now long gone. In the same ownership as Buckstay we have the David Simcock Can’t Change It, a winner at Goodwood two starts back, he ran a very poor race on the tapeta at Newcastle at the end of last month but the return to the turf should suit the five year old who is well suited to some give underfoot. The 14/1 available looks a bit of value although he looks the owner’s second choice here. George Bowen a previous eyecatcher, has been running shade disappointingly over 6f and looks worth a try at the extra furlong of the this race. Trainer Richard Fahey bids for a hatrick in the race having won the last two renewals. The 20/1 generally available looks a fair each way price if the four year old takes his chance.
York – John Smith’s Cup – Revolutionist –
Another valuable handicap on Saturday and I do like the chances of the Mark Johnston trained four year old here. He continues on the upgrade and ran a ‘cracker’ to finish 3rd at Royal Ascot, despite having a very wide draw to contend with that day. Can definitely win more races from his present mark and the 16/1 available at the time of writing with several firms’ looks a value price to me! The odds compilers at Coral seem more accurate in their pricing of the horse’s chance as they have him as low as 10/1.
Newmarket July Festival – Take A Bow Richard Fahey
Richard Fahey has been a bit of a ‘punters pal’ at Newmarket’s July Festival. Since 2011 he is 10 wins from 46 runners 22% +50.5 A/E 2.17 19 places 41% and if you just concentrate on his runners racing between 5f & 7f and starting 20/1 and under in the betting; he is 10/28 35% +68.5 A/E 2.79 14 places 50%.
Interestingly the profit backing him to Betfair SP is a really impressive +91.39. Clearly a trainer who prepares his runners for this meeting and he has made a profit in all of the last 5 years. Let’s hope he can keep the profitable run going this year.
This Weeks Eyecatchers
Time Test – Roger Charlton –
Could only finish a 2 ¼ length 3rd in this years Group 1 Coral Eclipse but it was no disgrace to finish behind a couple of smart three year olds on this occasion. The four year old has still to win in Group 1 company but he can surely win before the season is out. He took his chance here on ground that would have been too soft for him really. Its worth mentioning that he has never been out of the first two when facing good or quicker ground and is 4/6 on such surfaces. I would fancy him strongly to reverse form with winner and the runner up when he gets his favoured surface.
White Lake – Roger Varian –
Was only having his 2nd start for the trainer since his move from Luca Cumani and his first run since April. Had a very wide draw to overcome and wasn’t really suited by the way the race was run. The four year was facing soft ground for the first time and he seemed to handle it well enough. He finished a 3 length 6th at the finish but still shaped like he is on a workable mark. Has only had the seven career starts and is still capable of better. Should be sharper for the run and I am sure can be placed to advantage by his shrewd trainer before to long.
That’s it for now, and now all that’s left is to wish you a profitable weeks betting and let’s hope we get some decent ground at Newmarket later in the week.