I was asked last week if I would provide a written version of exactly what I did in the video so that the steps could be followed while the video was being watched. Today that is exactly what I have done.
I used the Sporting Life website for no other reason than it is 100% free and the information is easily available on it.
1) Choose a race where all the runners have had at least 3 or 4 previous races.
2) Click on the ‘Official Ratings’ box to the top right of the race card. This will open a box with the horses last 6 Official Ratings.
3) Clicking the left mouse button and holding it down, select all of the horses and their last 6 Official Ratings (including the headings).
4) Copy the highlighted selection which can be done by right-clicking and selecting or copy or pressing Crtl+C.
5) Open up Excel or whichever spreadsheet program that you use and paste into the spreadsheet.
6) Calculate the average of each horse’s last 6 ratings (if you have a lot of decimal places then you may want to remove them)
7) Calculate the average of all the horses average Official Ratings.
This gives a very quick way to give a quick estimate of the class of the race based on the Official Ratings.
One way of using this information is to look at how the runners average rating compares to today’s rating and then in turn compare this against an adjusted class level rating.
1) Take the average Official Rating for each horse and subtract the Official rating for today’s race from the figure.
2) Calculate the average of all the runners Official Ratings for today’s race.
3) Subtract the result from step 2 from the our class estimate we calculated in the last 7 steps.
Another way that we can use this information is to use the highest winning Official Rating.
1) Subtract today’s rating from the highest winning figure.
2) Any horse that has a positive number has won at a higher Official rating than they have received in today’s race.
3) Subtract the result of step 1 from the average Official Rating that we worked out in the beginning.
4) Repeat this for every horse to give each horse and adjusted Official Rating.
5) We then subtract the estimated class level that we worked out in the first section from each horse’s results in Step 4 to give our final adjusted rating.
This is the final rating and gives an estimate of the horse’s ability in today’s race based on its Official Ratings compared against its highest winning rating and the class level of the race.
Although I didn’t stay to watch the race in the video, our top-rated selection came third at 20/1, our second top-rated selection came second at 28/1 and our third top-rated selection came first at 8/1 which would have made a very tidy profit in almost any way that you would have chosen to bet on them.