Under and Over 2.5 Goals – A Market Trading Strategy for Football

Guest Post by Paul Micelli

Sports bettors are continually finding new areas to exert their talents and one of the most prominent areas of growth concerning football strategies has been the betting exchange market. In particular there are a number of systems that are designed to capitalise on the under/over 2.5 market. While many strategies applying to this particular form of sports betting are complicated beyond ordinary reason, the following system is fantastic in terms of simplicity yet it still holds the capacity to produce an excellent yield on profits.

Naturally, there will be a certain criteria that your chosen matches will have to meet. In this particular instance, it is essential to select matches with two teams with weak attacking prowess and strong defensive qualities. This can be easily deciphered by studying league tables and during the current 2009/2010 season, Fulham (39 scored and 42 conceded after 37 games) and Stoke City (34 scored and 44 conceded after 27 games) are excellent examples of this. When teams that are involved in low scoring games play each other, the chances to capitalise on this system are greatly enhanced.

The ideal scenario for this system is to wait until the first fifteen minutes of a selected game has passed. If the system is going to be maximised, an opening goal in the first fifteen minutes of play will be perfect. At this stage, any subsequent bet should be divided into two parts:

  • If a goal is scored inside the first 15 minutes, the odds for under 2.5 goals will increase. This is the perfect time to back and sports betting enthusiasts should avoid trading if a goal is scored beyond the opening quarter of an hour. This is because the fluctuation in odds will be too small to gain any meaningful profit
  • After a further ten minutes play, the price will begin to drop and this is the perfect time to lay in the same market. A lower sum should be used in this scenario to compensate for your first bet and these actions should yield profits in both the under and over markets

The worst case scenario for this particular system is that a second goal is scored immediately after the first one. Obviously, no money will be lost straight away but the potential for being in profit at the end of a game will be greatly reduced. Wherever possible, it is best to avoid betting in active matches were there are clear indications that both sides are playing open, attacking football. If you find yourself in the unfortunate position of being saddled with a back bet in a game where two goals were scored in close succession to each other, there are two possible alternatives:

  • You can trade out and take the loss. After all, even the most seasoned of sports betting enthusiasts can’t win every time
  • If the state of the game changes, it can be worth holding out until the later stages before trading out with a smaller loss or, if you are particularly shrewd, a small profit

The main key, as with any other effective sports betting system, is to only bet under the right circumstances with the appropriate statistical data supporting your decisions.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.


  1. Try to place your bets at the correct time. If you really want to get the best results of your betting, then you must keep the time frame in your mind and place bets accordingly. You should place a bet when you are getting the right cost. People just take it as a guideline, but it has proven to be the most effective betting strategy for sports lovers.

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