Imagine the confusion that Dorothy must have felt when she first appeared in the land of Oz.
I mean it must have been terrifying.
Nothing was familiar, nothing worked out as she planned it, and there were scarecrows, tin men and lions who spoke!
If you’ve been betting on horses for anytime, then you’ll have experienced that same feeling.
You’re not the only one who’s had the feeling of nothing working out as planned.
Which is why I want to let you in on something today.
The chances are when you look at a race you focus on trying to find the winner.
And that’s the wrong thing to do.
Most bettors will find between 15% and 30% winning bets, but even if you found 90% winning bets you can still lose money.
Because everything is about the odds you take.
If you found 90% winners but took average odds of 1.05 then this is what it would look like…
100 bets
90 winners paid out a profit of +4.50
10 loses lost -10
Total profit -5.50
So you shouldn’t be trying to find winners, you should be trying to find all horses that have a good chance of winning the race, and that’s usually between two and five (in big festival races it’s way more).
Then… you should be focusing on trying to find the one that’s offering the best odds based on the chance you think they have of winning.
The way most folks do that is by creating odds lines, but unless you know how to create an odds line accurately (more on that later), it’s probably not going to work for you.
So the easiest way to get started is to go with your gut feeling.
Not enough people trust their gut feeling, but it’s one of the most powerful tools you have in your arsenal.
And the more you practice with it, the better it’s gonna get.
If you want to know some of the mathematical ways of creating odds lines, then you should check out these posts:
http://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/creating-odds-lines-episode-1/
http://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/creating-odds-lines-episode-2-fuzzy-logic/
http://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/creating-odds-lines-episode-3-multinomial-regression/
But if you just want an odds line made for you using artificial intelligence…
All the best,
The Race Advisor
P.S. Next week we’re going to be revealing a method that will enable you to make your own odds lines, super-accurately, in just minutes. Keep a close eye on your inbox to make sure you don’t miss it.
Profit recall does look good but just to exspensive.
Thank you for your feedback Robin. Profit Recall was in beta, at a cheaper rate, for a long-time before it’s final release recently. It has been priced at the average cost of a tipster service, but it provides the automatic analysis of millions of data points for all races every day, along with odds lines, live Betfair odds, contender marking and more, so it provides far more than a tipster service.