Well I thought my selection last week Le Reve was going to get me off to a flyer with my first advice writing on the Race Advisor website, in with every chance going to the last the notorious Sandown hill unfortunately caught out my charge and he finished a gallant but one paced third showing a small profit for the each way bet advised on the race.
My other selection Roalco De Farges ran no sort of race whatsoever and was tailed off and pulled up before the last, a very disappointing run in my book when I expected much more!
Hopefully I can fare a little better today and I am very much looking forward with interest to the first classic of the season the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket where the cream of last year’s 2 year old crop will be battling it out to land this prestigious and lucrative prize.
Make no mistake this is a wide open contest with a number of today’s runners who can be given some sort of a chance a fact borne out by my ratings which has four of the field rated within a few of points of each other.
Elm Park winner of the Royal Lodge and Racing Post Trophy certainly comes in to the equation and did nothing but improve with his racing last season. He gets a good rating from me and at his current odds meets my price requirements; however I am worried that the ground may just be on the quick side for him today and for that reason alone I am regrettably putting a line through him and his chances.
I have much respect for all Andre Fabre’s runners when they visit our shores and Territories is no exception. A group one third placed second behind Gleneagles at Longchamp reads well and he has the benefit of a recent winning run under his belt which for me is a positive, I am however not convinced that he is quite up to winning this and his price is on the short side too so he is not for me.
As usual Aiden O’Brien has a strong hand here with two well fancied runners and his Gleneagles based upon his two year old form is a worthy favourite and he also gets my top system rating. However his price I feel is rather skinny generally around the 3/1 mark where my tissue has him priced up at 9/2! He may well win this with ease and could be a good thing but I can’t back him at that price which is far too short in my book and represents no value.
The same can’t be said for O’Brien’s other runner Ol Man River who on my ratings is rated within a point of Gleneagles yet you can get 7/1 when I have him as a 5/1 chance.
Ole Man River only has two runs under his belt and won both of these comfortably and looks the type to improve as a three year old. Arguably he hasn’t hit the heights of Gleneagles or Elm Park yet but I feel on his breeding and his potential he could be very smart indeed and at his current price he definitely looks worth a wager.
Of the longer shots in the field I am going to have a small each way investment on Kool Company a multi winning two year who also made a recent winning return in the Craven Stakes here at Newmarket.
He came up short when tried in group one contests last season and he may well not be up to this class but with a recent run under his belt winning course and distance form on today’s going and a fair rating from me the 33/1 currently on offer with Stan James looks to be overpriced and quite appealing and as a speculative punt I am hopeful that he may be able to run in to a place at least.
So the selections for today are:
Ole Man River 1 point win 7/1 generally
Kool Company 0.5 point each way 33/1 Stan James
If this were an 18-runner race for 3yo maidens, one would avoid it like the plague. Yet, most of these runners still have a lot to prove. So, simply out of interest, I’m having a small each-way wager on Moheet – 25/1 and paying 4 places.
Now that Elm Park is a non runner I am going to go with Ivawood. Ol’ Man River would be next in the list though.
Nice call on Ivawood Panu 🙂
Yeah, I did take E/W bet at 13.0 so I doubled my money there 🙂
I think, as in this case, we sometimes ignore the obvious in search of what we think to be value!