I am not a great fan of the early part of the flat season as I like to see the form settle down a bit with horses having a run or two under their belts and the results having a more reliable look about them.
The Epsom Derby meeting is my usual indicator that the season has moved in to full swing and that some good profits can now be made, however this season the winners given by my system seem to be coming with consistency two or three weeks earlier than usual which is a bonus and I am quietly confident that some nice returns are just around the corner.
For example the system top rated horses at Sandown Park on Thursday evening gave five of the six winners and although they were not the greatest of prices two odds on, a 3/1 dead heat and 11/4 twice, winners are winners and this is not the first time recently that three or four top rated selections have won at a single meeting!
Easy after the event I hear you say but I can assure you that the system is churning out regular winners and I believe confidently that we can start making some good profits together hopefully starting today with the 2.00 at Haydock The Betfred Membership “Play Your Way” Handicap over 2 miles and 45 yards.
I have always viewed these long distance races on the flat as a bit of a specialist distance and the ability to get the trip is oh so important especially when there is a bit of cut in the ground and on that basis a live chance has got to be given to Rite to Reign. This Philp McBride 4 year old has been running with such consistency and will be in his element over this type of trip and on this going, and I fully expect to see him staying on at the death when others have cried enough but is he good enough to win this?
Last year’s winner Noble Silk has got to enter the equation but I think he will probably need the run and that there will be a couple too good for him today. I also expect both Gabrial’s King who ran with such credit in the Chester Cup recently and the Hughie Morrison trained Nearly Caught to be in the mix but I am going to side with the Sir Mark Prescott trained William Of Orange to show the improvement that he will most definitely need to win this.
I have to say that this is slightly unusual selection for me as I like a horse to be proven over the distance which he isn’t, and also proven in the class of race which again is not the case here.
However William of Orange gets the system top rating , is trained by Sir Mark Prescott who is the master with his placement of his horses, add to this that Sir Mark’s horses are running well at the moment and that I seriously think that this step up to 2 miles will suit having been a well beaten but a staying second on his reappearance over a shorter trip at Salisbury last time out all bode well for a big run today.
I think that the 6/1 about his chance are a fair price without being outstanding but am more than hopeful that this lightly race four year old can take a big step forward and win this for us today.
As something slightly different I have below taken an extract from my ratings at Haydock Park this afternoon to show the top two rated runners in each race. It also shows the prices that ideally I am looking for based upon the probability and providing that this criteria is met I usually look to dutch the top two selections to a level stake.
Hopefully the ratings will continue to throw out the winners as they have been doing and we are in for a profitable afternoon.