So where do I start today, some highly competitive handicaps that look very appealing indeed!
Musselburgh for example hosts the William Hill Scottish Sprint Cup this afternoon where a field of 17 are due to go to post over the minimum trip. Despite the number of runners I can look no further than Red Baron who has been running oh so well recently, loves this track and is officially 3lb ahead of the handicapper!
No surprise that his price is a little restrictive with 9/2 being the best price available as I write this, however this is not a million miles away from the 11/2 that my tissue has Red Baron priced at and we may well be able to get the price I am looking for as the markets become more active later in the day!
Red Baron although appealing represents no value, however this can’t be said for Twin Appeal in the 2.35 at York who I think is well overpriced at 10/1 to win this (I have him as a 6/1 chance).
I always think of 7 furlongs as being a specialist distance not quite a sprint but not middle distance either and Twin Appeal’s record over this trip is impressive winning 4 from his 6 starts. This is far more competitive than the races he has previously being contesting but this lightly raced David Barron gelding seems to be improving with every run and I would be disappointed if he is not involved in the finish.
The other race that really interests me today is the Winner Sports Handicap which is run at my favourite track Sandown.
Another difficult race to call as many of the runners can be given some sort of chance but having analysed and rated the race I have got this down to 4 who I think are the players in this race.
The first of these is Knight Owl who showed improved form on his last run and will definitely enjoy both the trip and going here. James Fanshawe had listed success at Newbury in the week and with Andrea Atzeni on board Knight Owl is a big danger to all.
On my ratings alone Master The World enters the calculations but is a nearly horse in my book, one who always seems to run consistently well without getting his head in front. Whilst I again expect him to run his race and be competitive I don’t think he is good enough to win this and is therefore bypassed as the selection.
I do however like the Saeed bin Suroor trained Basem who gets a good rating from me, is lightly raced and could show the necessary improvement required here to win this. The bin Suroor stable has been in the winners recently which is a big plus but I do like a horse to have a run under their belt before backing them which is not the case here with Basem so although it would be no surprise to see him win this I am begrudgingly going to look elsewhere!
That elsewhere is going to be the Frankie Dettori ridden Jacob Black who gets the top system rating from and will be the one carrying my money.
Proven over course and distance Jacob Black does need to show further improvement and as a horse who likes to make all is there to be shot at. However I certainly think that there is more improvement to come from him and he could dictate the race from the front which is often the best tactics here at Sandown and could therefore be very difficult to pass with Frankie on board!
The 7/1 which is the best current price available with Boyle Sports as I write this is fair without being generous and I have therefore had a piece of the 7/1 as I can see him coming in with the rest of the layers not prepared to go that price and Paddy Power currently only offering 5/1!
Finally an old friend of mine who now lives in Ireland and occasionally gives me a bit of info has told me to back Beechmont Whisper in 5.05 at Navan this afternoon! I know nothing about the horse apart from that it is currently favourite at best priced 9/2 in an open looking handicap but I will back it as Kenny (my mate) does come up with a few gems from time to time and I would be angry with myself if I didn’t have some money on it and it scooted home!
Selections
Red Baron 3.25 Musselburgh – 1 point win if you can get 11/2 or better
Twin Appeal 2.35 York – 1 point each way 10/1
Jacob Black 2.20 Sandown – 1 point each way 7/1
Beechmont Whisper 5.05 Navan – 1 point win 9/2 (on Kenny’s say so)
