Saturday Preview – Cheltenham November Meeting Trainer Stats

As promised here are some of the more significant trainer stats from this high intensity jumps meeting. The stats are from 2012 to 2016 and consist of 95 winners from 1123 runners 277 placed.

The top four trainers at the meeting numerically, have won just over 46% of all the races in the period:

Philip Hobbs – 13 winners from 53 runners 25% +25.84 A/E 1.4 (profit to BSP +50.63) 24 placed 45%

David Pipe – 13 winners from 77 runners 17% +38.13 A/E 1.23 (profit to BSP +56.86) 26 placed 34%

Paul Nicholls – 11 winners from 81 runners 14% +4.36 A/E 0.89 (profit to BSP +18.25) 23 placed 28%

Nicky Henderson – 7 winners from 56 runners 13% -31.61 A/E 0.73 (profit to BSP-30.2) 20 placed 36%.

The last two trainers will get winners at the meeting but they over-bet by the betting public as you can see from the A/E figures so I am going to examine the records of Philip Hobbs and David Pipe to see what profitable angles emerge.

David Pipe – Five of the trainer’s winners have come in handicap hurdles and all five have shared one characteristic they all hadn’t raced in the last 90 days:

Race Type: Handicap Hurdles
Runs 90 Day: 0

5 winners from 19 runners 26% +53 A/E 2.29 (profit to BSP +67.93) 8 placed 42%.

Philip Hobbs – The trainer’s record is good across the board as you can see from the above figures. An excellent 25% win strike rate and profit to both industry & BSP and his runners are going off a value price and performing 40% better than the market expects. The win strike rate can be improved if you wanted to concentrate on his chasers that are ridden by Richard Johnson:

Race Type: All Chases
Jockey: Richard Johnson

8 winners from 19 runners 42% +20.08 A/E 1.83 (profit to BSP +29.5) 11 placed 58%

Until next time, be lucky.


John Burke

I have a MA in International Politics and having spent a number of years working in political campaigning but I eventually I realised that politics was not the world where I wanted to work I had been interested in horse racing since the late 1980s but in the early years I was merely just betting and watching racing like most people as a bit of fun and a hobby, then the hobby becomes a passion and that’s what happened to me with horse racing. I soon realised that to make money from my hobby I had to learn as much as I could about the sport and betting in general. The whole process took time but after a number of successful years of betting, I decided in 2011 to take the plunge, gave up my full time day job and decided to bet on horse racing as a part time business and I haven’t looked back since. I like to specialise in the better class of races and I love to solve the puzzles posed by big field handicaps the latter races often provide punters with great value betting opportunities. Whilst most of my time is spent reviewing previous races I like to keep things as simple as possible as even the biggest field handicaps can usually be pruned down to half a dozen strong contenders with the right sort of approach.
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