Royal Ascot – Day Four Preview

I didn’t have a bet on the opener but was a little bit disappointed with King Of Rooks who came to win the race but wasn’t quite good enough and was beaten by a couple of better horses on the day.

The Tercentenary saw my top two rated Time Test and Peacock come home first and second in that order, I didn’t have a bet on the race but was pleased that the system selections came up with the goods which to me in a strange way gives me as much satisfaction as actually having money on the winner!

The Ribblesdale panned out exactly as I had hoped thanks to Curvey and Ryan Moore who is on fire at the moment. I must admit at one point I thought Pleasach who clearly stayed the trip was going to win this but thankfully that wasn’t the case and I therefore picked up on my each way bet on Curvey and my lay bet on Pleasach.

Trip to Paris won the Gold Cup very well but didn’t enter my equations from a punting perspective in the slightest, I did have a small reverse forecast as an interest bet as my ratings had Forgotten Rules and Mizzou nicely clear of the third rated horse but this never looked likely and I made a small loss here.

Ryan Moore again in the Britannia and War Envoy was most definitely backable, he did get a good system rating and was on the shortlist especially as Pricewise had given him the thumbs up. However I plumped for the top rated selection Sahaafy here who never really got in to the race and finished in mid division and was slightly disappointing. My other selection Azraaf was a non-runner which was also a disappointment as I thought he would possibly run a big race and could sneak in to a place at decent odds.

The final race on the card and the system had Dissolution as the top rated selection but the best early price in the morning totally put me off backing him and his SP was even worse totally derisory and I should have laid him at that price! I thought Yorkidding at 20/1 this morning looked to big so I did have a piece of this each way but although prominent through much of the race she faded tamely in the final two furlongs and finished nearer last than first and was clearly not up to this!

So overall a profit was made on the day which is pleasing but a mixed bag of results from the system perspective, hopefully today we can improve upon this and make day 4 a good day from all angles.
Here are the ratings for Royal Ascot today.

Date Time Meeting Horse Odds (Dec) Odds (Frac)
19/06/2015 14:30 ASCOT LAXFIELD ROAD 8.36 7/1
19/06/2015 14:30 ASCOT SPANISH ROMANCE 10.00 9/1
19/06/2015 15:05 ASCOT OL MAN RIVER 3.07 2/1
19/06/2015 15:05 ASCOT BALIOS 5.20 4/1
19/06/2015 15:40 ASCOT HOOTENANNY 9.00 15/2
19/06/2015 15:40 ASCOT LIMATO 9.57 8/1
19/06/2015 16:20 ASCOT FOUND 3.88 11/4
19/06/2015 16:20 ASCOT ERVEDYA 5.81 9/2
19/06/2015 17:00 ASCOT IGIDER 10.25 9/1
19/06/2015 17:00 ASCOT ASTRONEREUS 11.16 10/1
19/06/2015 17:35 ASCOT ALOFT 4.80 7/2
19/06/2015 17:35 ASCOT BANTRY BAY 8.73 15/2

Friday’ proceedings open with the Albany Stakes and I am going have a small win bet on Laxfield Road here, there is not a lot to go on but the system has her top rated and the price available 13/2 best odds guaranteed is about right so a hopeful rather than confident selection in this.

Ol Man River gets top rating in the King Edward V11 stake but has been really disappointing this season including last time out when I backed him. He has the services of Ryan Moore on board today who can do no wrong at the moment but I think I would rather watch this than play in it!

The Commonwealth Cup looks a cracker and the top rated Hootenanny is in with every chance of winning this but looking at the odds 10/3 which is the best price I can get as I write this, 9/4 in some places Hootenanny is far too short cannot be backed at that price. I did look at the ratings to see if there was anything else that represented a bit of value but nothing comes out to hit me so I will enjoy being a spectator for this.

The Coronation Stakes is a race that doesn’t really interest me with Found the favourite plenty short enough here, again from a ratings and value perspective nothing really stands out but I may if Found shortens to around the evens mark look to lay her as at those odds which would be far too short in my opinion and would not be too expensive if she should she oblige.

I am going to side with Igider in the Duke of Edinburgh, Roger Varians’s horses are running well at the moment and I feel that there is more to come over this trip for this lightly raced colt. He gets the top system rating and although the 7/1 currently available is not generous in the odds department I am going to take this as I think he will run in to a place at the very least.

Aloft basically makes the market in the last and looking at my system ratings he is well clear of the next best Bantry Bay and should hose home based upon these which may be the case. However there is each way value out there and none more so than in Future Empire who at 16/1 looks to be overpriced. He is third rated on the system and I think that a step up to this kind of trip on better going is likely to suit, I have him as a 9/1 chance so am more than happy to have a bit of the 16/1 each way.

14.30 Ascot – Laxfield Road 0.5 point each way
17.00 Ascot – Igdier 2 points each way
17.35 Ascot – Future Empire 1 point each way

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