Ratings Variance

Discover how you can take any rating, and using variance, find out the horses in the race that have no chance, and the strongest with nothing more than a simple spreadsheet.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.


  1. Good question. I have found that 10% provides a good range in the past and so I always start there, however this is going to be dependent on the ratings you are using. The best would be to start at 10% and then test what happens with a smaller range and a bigger range until you hit on the best range for your rating.

  2. Michael, as always, a very interesting post on variance. I look at Ron Robinson’s ratings on post racing and am often surprised at his selections, which appear to come from nowhere (and often win or place at good odds). I am starting to see how such horses can be selected. Thanks very much.

  3. It seems that our video has been removed and we cannot find a copy of it. I am very unhappy about this but I will, of course, make a new one. Please give me a few days to put it together and I shall post another comment as soon as it is ready and uploaded.

  4. Many thanks Michael – A very useful and essential addition to the race analysts tool box – A great video lesson

  5. Please give the video some time to load if you do not have a fast broadband connection.

    1. Hi Barry, I am unlikely to get this done quickly because it would be a lot of writing to get it all down on paper. However please make sure that you have the sound put up to 100% on the video as well as on your speakers.

  6. Hi!
    I dint understand one stap that you did. Why (or better how) did you chose confidence up tu 95%? Thanks

    1. 95% is a good figure to start with because it is strong enough but doesn’t have to much range. Please give the video another watch and make notes as it goes through to find the steps.

  7. Hi Michael
    With reference to Lu’s comment above may I ask how one can be 95% confident a horse will run to either side of a ratings figure? This has puzzled me for some time and I do struggle with it and would welcome your further input.

    Many Thanks

    1. Hi Paul, Confidence Levels are a statistical measure which are derived from using a standard deviation across a quantity of ratings. The more deviations you move away from the actual rating, statistically the more confident you can be that the “true” rating was between the two figures. This is determined by percentages. The number of deviations we are using give us a statistical 95% confidence that the “true” rating is between those two figures.

  8. Hi Michael
    Great article, did you ever add the future article/spreadsheet on ‘improving horses’?

    I already use your class OR spreadsheet but have combined my speed and form ratings in place of the OR and now plan to use the stdev as an extra confidence level for my place laying decisions.
    Many Thanks

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