Advice

Newmarket (July) 2012 – Day 2

We are on to day two of the festival, and day one was certainly tough. The going is still soft on the ground and that is what I am going to be basing my analysis on. As with yesterday we shall be trying to take advantage of the Bet365 offer of a free bet if you have a winner of 4/1 or higher. As with yesterday the last race that is part of this offer is the 3pm. Let’s get stuck in!

1:20 Piper-Heidsieck E.B.F. Fillies’ Handicap 7f

A 15 runner race to start the day off. There are certainly a number of potential contenders in this race but first of all we want to remove the runners that we don’t think are likely to be able compete at this level.

I shall start by removing all runners who haven’t had a good race in over 6 months. This removes 7 from the field. Next I am going to remove the runners that do not look to have the speed to win this race, which takes out another 1 runner. We are now left with 7 runners who are Perfect Step, Abi Scarlet, Free Verse, Riot Of Colour, Tartiflette, Savannah Days and Wahylah.

Of these runners, Perfect Step had a good race over 7 furlongs on the flat at Ascot on the 11th May, the speed is there and will be a strong contender. Free Verse has shown a small decline and this race is seeing a rise in class which could prove to be too much.

Tartiflette has not won a race this year over these conditions but has been showing strong improvement coming 2nd over the last 3 similar races. She will certainly be in with a chance.

Wahylah has an extra furlong to run here, although has proven to do well over 6 furlongs. However she hasn’t won a race in nearly a year and that gives cause for concern. Riot Of Colour has performed well over Good To Soft ground but has shown a recent decline. However there is a big drop in class making this runner a potential.

Savannah Days hasn’t raced on soft ground since September last year and performed well then. If she repeats that performance there is a chance. While there is potential I think there are other runners with a stronger chance and so will be removing this runner from the selections.

Abi Scarlet’s last race at Goodwood in June was poor. Before being put onto the turf she was showing good performances on the all-weather and improving. After the last outing on turf I would not want to put money on her until she has proven herself.

That leaves us with 3 possible selections in Perfect Step, Tartiflette and Riot Of Colour. Of these Perfect Step and Tartiflette are favoured with Perfect Step expected to do well.

I would be looking at a dutch across all three runners with a place bet on Riot Of Colour and a 20/80 on Tartiflette. The odds on Perfect Step are unlikely to be high enough to allow this.

Selections: Perfect Step, Tartiflette and Riot Of Colour dutched. Make sure the first horse on the bet slip is above 4/1. A 20/80 bet on Tartiflette as well.

1:50 Betfred ‘The Bonus King’ Heritage Handicap 6f

An even bigger race for the second of the day with 20 runners competing. We will be removing horses that are unlikely to be able to contend in this race, starting with those who have not run a good race recently. That removes 11 runners from contention!

A lot of the runners have run over soft ground but only once, which makes it hard to get a true assessment of their likely performance. I will be removing those who performed significantly worse in their race on soft ground than the others. This removes another three runners, leaving us with 6 contenders.

The contenders are Van Ellis, Fulbright, Sholaan, Muaamara, Mince and Mr Red Clubs.

Of these, looking just at similar races to todays, Fulbright and Mr Red Clubs have performed significantly better than the rest. Mr Red Clubs is also seeing a drop in class which could give an advantage. Neither of these runners should be ignored.

Sholaan is next, who won a race on the soft at York last month, although the speed he attained doing this was much lower tan Mr Red Clubs and Fulbright have attained.

I am going to bring back into our contenders list, Place In My Heart who over good to soft ground has been running excellently and for this reason should not be ignored. Although he has not won a race for a long time, there is a drop in class and good improvement which puts him in a strong position today.

Mince has also performed well over these conditions and shown improvement, although the form is not as strong as the others. A possibility but more of an outsider.

Van Ellis has never had a strong finish on soft or good to soft ground which is a concern and his worse performances have been on softer going.  Under todays conditions that gives too much cause for concern and so he will be removed from the selections.

This leaves us with Fulbright, Place In My Heart and Mr Red Clubs as the selections in this race.

It is hard to choose between these and so I would be looking at a dutch bet across all three. These are all pretty high odds runners and so I would be looking to go for 20/80 or place bets as well on them.

Selections: Dutch bet Fulbright, Place In My Heart and Mr Red Clubs. Make sure the first horse on the bet slip is above 4/1. Place bets on all runners.

2:25 Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Cherry Hinton Stakes (Fillies’ Group 2) 6f

A 12 runner race eventually brings us back to a more normal sized field. We use the same approach though, removing the horses with no chance (eliminations) and then looking at the race to see which are likely to be contenders.

This fillies race only has runners who have raced a few times and they have all performed well. It is likely to be a highly contested event and one that is going to be tough to find selections in.

I will start by removing those runners who have produced significantly worse speed figures in their recent run over similar conditions. This removes 4 runners.

Another two can be removed as they have very high odds and the market in these races are very strong indicators.

Of the rest we I am going to focus on those who have proven themselves over the conditions, and specifically the ground.

City Image looks to be the strongest having put in an excellent run at Windsor on the 9th June. Sendmylovetorose and Maureen come next while Premier Steps has been steadily increasing. The question is, can this improvement continue? It is likely to continue but whether that will be enough to win I am not sure. Certainly not a runner to ignore however.

Lovely Pass saw a decline in performance in her last race, however it was not so bad as to not be a potential threat. But, in a race with so many possibilities, we will need to remove her from our selections based on this.

That leaves us with the selections being City Image, Sendmylovetorose and Maureen, with Premier Steps also a potential threat. At the current odds you can get a 28% by dutching these 4 runners and that is what I will be doing.

Selections: Dutch City Image, Sendmylovetorose, Maureen and Premier Steps. Make sure the first horse on the bet slip is above 4/1.

3:00 Etihad Airways Falmouth Stakes (British Champions Series) (Fillies’ Group 1) 1m

We can remove four runners immediately who have not had a good race for a long time. There are 3 runners who have never raced before in the UK, and one of these has odds so high as to not be a threat. Meanwhile another, Golden Lilac, is the odds-on favourite.

In these situations I use the markets as a guide heavily as the form of the runners is unknown. This would indicate that Golden Lilac has a very strong chance of winning the race. I will most likely be looking for someone to take against her as an each-way bet.

Of those left, Joviality and Alanza look to be the strongest. Joviality has never performed on the going before whereas Alanza has, making her the each-way selection for me in this race, going against the Golden Lilac.

Selection: Alanza each-way.

3:35 Weatherbys E.B.F. Maiden Stakes 7f

A maiden race where only 4 of the runners have ever race before! This one is best left alone. Of those who have raced Requested looks to be the best, but it would be very difficult to say that with any certainty.

You could look at assessing this race on pedigree but, for me, I prefer to initially  use the market as a guide. The majority of the runners are over 19/1 and without having any information on them I would not bet any horse at odds higher than this. At the time of writing this that leaves 4 runners, who, if you want to bet, can be profitably dutched.

These runners are Ghurair, Requested, Alfonso De Sousa and Improvisation. Two of these, Requested and Alfonso De Sousa, have raced before and Requested looks to be the strongest. While this may indicate a reason to remove Alfonsa De Sousa, experience has taught me that in these maiden races nothing is certain and if I can make a profit keeping him in, then I will.

A race to be left alone!

Selections: No bet.

4:10 EquineFx.com Maiden Stakes 1m 2f

Another maiden race, but this time only 2 runners who have not raced before, which gives us  little bit more scope for our analysis.

To analyse this race I am going to start by removing the runners whose performances have been significantly worse than the others over any conditions and also those who are above odds of 19/1. These, combined with the non-runners, removes 8 runners from the field of 15.

The rest all have potential and so we will be looking for those who have proven themselves over the ground.

Awake My Soul and Marshgate Lane are the strongest with Awake My Soul taking the slight edge for stronger performance over a softer ground. These are the only two runners who have proven themselves and therefore become the selections.

I would suggest that you do not bet in this race, but if you want to I would be looking at a dutch bet between these two runners.

Selections: No bet.

4:45 Arab Race – President of the UAE Cup (UK Arabian Derby) (Group 1 PA) 1m 2f

I have no data on any of these runners and so cannot analyse it.

5:20 Newmarket Historic Home Of Racing Handicap 1m

The last race of the day, and historically, the one where I usually make a good profit. In this handicap race we are back to having enough information to be able to make some good decisions. With this we are also back to removing the eliminations first and then finding the contenders.

From the 16 runners, those who have not had a good race or won a race in the last 6 months enables us to remove all but 5 runners immediately!

This leaves us with Daruband, Hallings Comet, Jack’s Revenge, Barwick and Diplomat to investigate further.

Jack’s Revenge won in Windsor on the 18th June over the same distance and good to soft ground, while notching an impressive speed. If he can repeat this performance then he is a serious contender in this race.

Barwicks performance over the soft has seen him perform less than his odds indicated and significantly below the level of Jack’s Revenge. We shall remove him from contention.

Ariyfa should also be brought back in as a contender based on the performance at Newmarket on the 27th June. Finishing second over the same distance and softer ground makes this horse a potential threat.

If the ground was good then Daruband would be an easy choice to include, however with no proof over soft conditions there is cause for concern.  The market is not particularly favouring him and so I will be leaving him alone until he can prove he likes the conditions.

Hallings Comet is currently the market favourite and won a race on heavy going last time out. However the speed of the race was very slow, even for a heavy race, and I am not sure that he will be able to compete today and so will be removed.

Diplomatic is an all-weather runner and I will not be betting on it until I can see whether he can translate the performance to the turf. This will be made even harder for him today with the ground conditions.

That leaves Jack’s Revenge and Arifya as the selections in the race. They will be dutched and have place bets on both.

Selections: Dutch Jack’s Revenge and Arifya. Then have place bets on both. Make sure the first horse on the bet slip is above 4/1.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

13 Comments

  1. Hey,

    I only did the 1.50 race in Newmarket today and came out with similar selection. 1. Fullbright 2. Mr red cards and 3. accession…….

  2. Good afternoon Michael,

    This is another Day at Newmarket and big fields as well as Maiden Races where there is not much Data to analyse a race.

    I have a software I made up on a Spreadsheet which I would like you to look at. On the first sheet it owrks like this. Here is an example set out below:

    Horse Alpha Numerical 2/1 Fav Weight 129 Days 16. The 2nd horse Numerology 7/2 Weight 131 Days 25. The points I would allocate would be 1 point for the lowest weighted horse and one point for the lowest number of days if both had the same weight I would give them 1 point and the same if both had the same days. If the points were equal in total I would say No Bet. The maximum lay is 2 points and the minimum is Zero which would means NO Bet.

    The 2nd one on sheet 2 is slightly different.

    Horse Alpha Numerical Weight 129 Days 16 129/16 = Rating 8.0625 Numerolgy Weight 131 Days 25 131/25 = Rating 5.24 therefore you Lay the horse with the lower rating. The only thing that is the same is that you Lay the lower points or lower rating horse in each case and where the horse is equal again equal in Rating there would be NO Bet.

    It is on a Spreadsheet and the first one you need to allocate the 1 point where applicable but it totals it up and shows which one has the higher number of points. The differnce between the two horses points is what you would lay ie the horse Alpha Numerical has 2 points and Numerology has 1 point then you would lay 1 point omn Numerolgy and vice versa and if Alpha numerical had 2 points and Numerical had 0 then you lay 2 points on Numerical and vice versa.

    The second one is more riskier in the points to lay.

    Alpha Numerical weight is 129/16 days = Rating 8.0625 =8 and Numerology iweight is 131/25 days = Rating 5.24 =5..00 therefore the differnce in round figures is 8-5 = 3. In order to cut the risk which of ocurse will reduce the profit I have a plan for laying where if you were to lay Numerology at as an example 3.50 we would take 3 points to lay ad divide it into the odds and this would give us a Lay bet of 0.8571 rounded up 0.86 or to the nearest figure to £1 stake so the maximum we would lose is £1 x 3.50 = £3.50.

    If you would like me to send you the spreadsheet to have a look at please let me know and if there are any questions please do not hesitate to contact me. I also have laready shown real races on the spreadsheet sheet 1 and 2 and there are also ones which you can use to fill in with todays races for testing and the most impotant part of it all it can be tested for past races as well as future races if you have the relevant criteria which the weigth of the horse for the race and the number of days last ran. Thank you.

    1. Hi Franklyn, if you would like me to take a look then please send it to the support desk at support @ raceadvisor.co.uk

      1. I am a US owner/trainer on layoff whose expertise is in equine behavior, here seeking to augment my limited knowledge of the gambling side of my sport.
        The sum total of information at my disposal to the Newmarket meet and the horses involved is contained in the above forum posts.
        If this forum were a race card and posts as entrants in a race, I would apply your selection process as follows; I will assume your overall form to have earned a higher rating than all other posters here, eliminating them as contenders for the win. Then I look at the info presented for your selections and apply my instinct. My play/choice for order of exacta finish would be 1)Mr Red Club and 2) Fullbright.
        Sorry if I am intruding. I believe I am profiting from the reading I discover in the article list.
        Appy

        1. Welcome to the site Appy. That is exactly how it should be done. Except I would not have recommended an exacta in that race. Finding exotic bets in festival races is significantly harder than usual due to the number of quality runners in the fields.

    1. Yesterday we started by looking to take advantage of the free bet offered by Bet365. If you get a winner at 4/1 or above on Channel 4 televised races then they will give you a bet to the same stake in the next televised race for free.

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