MINI BETTING SYSTEM #12: Profiting from Aidan Coleman

It is a fool’s errand to blindly back horses regardless of a betting system’s potential. Remember, every single strategy published on Race Advisor is supposed to act as a foundation. If you’re stuck for time, use the Five-Minute Form Reading method to quickly eliminate horses running in unsuitable conditions.

Things change rapidly in horse racing, but the sight of Aidan Coleman riding yet another winner isn’t one of them. The Irish jockey rode his first winner in 2007 and has racked up close to 1,200 career victories. In terms of win percentage, he is having the best year of his career by a long way in 2021. Therefore, I felt it was time to shine a spotlight on Coleman to see if we could find any profitable angles.

You can see all the past mini betting systems here.

Aidan Coleman Betting System Rules

The best systems are simple and give you an excellent foundation. This is certainly the case here:

• Only choose horses ridden by Aidan Coleman in the UK.
• Only bet on races at these four courses: Hereford, Lingfield, Market Rasen, and Newton Abbot. Uttoxeter and Worcester are optional.

The Logic

Experienced punters know that ‘betting systems’ have a limited shelf-life and realise the need to adapt. If you see a profitable trend with a solid foundation that the bookies haven’t uncovered yet, it is important to leap on it. Eventually, you’ll lose the ‘edge,’ and the process begins all over again.

As far as Aidan Coleman goes, he is enjoying a career-best spell. He has ridden in over 400 races a calendar year since 2008, barring the curtailment in 2020, where he still managed almost 300. From 2008 to 2018, he had a win rate of over 17% just once. However, he exceeded it in 2019 and 2020. Things have gone to the next level in 2021 as Coleman’s win rate is over 25% as of mid-May.

Blindly backing his rides would have yielded a profit of 34 units to SP and 56 units to Betfair prices in 2021. Of course, we can do much better, which is why I’ve looked into his record at certain courses where he has excelled for the last three years. Simply put, this system is all about taking advantage of Aiden Coleman’s recent good form.

The Results

Even in 2019 and 2020, blindly backing Coleman’s 781 rides would have yielded only a slight loss at Betfair prices. I elected to focus on the tracks where he has the best success since the start of 2019. The first step was to reduce the options by only looking at racecourses where Coleman has had a minimum of 15 rides.

He has a win rate of 20+% at eleven courses. However, it is only the following four where backing his mounts would have yielded a profit of 10+ units at SP:

• Hereford
• Lingfield
• Market Rasen
• Southwell

He also achieves this level of profit at Worcester and Uttoxeter, where his win rate is 19% and 18%, respectively. Coleman’s profit at Huntingdon is 12.25 units, but he has only won 3 out of 39 races, so can we eliminate that course.

If you’re only interested in the four courses where his win rate is 20% or higher, here’s what the stats look like since January 2019. As you’ll see, backing the horses on the Betfair Exchange is lucrative:

A profit of 160 units is exceptional, as is the ROI of 130%. Even using SP, you would earn over 103 units with an ROI of 83%. Adding Worcester and Uttoxeter increases the profit to 200 units at Betfair prices and 120 units at SP. However, the trade-off is a reduced strike rate of 26% and a decreased BF ROI of 91%.

Here’s a year-by-year breakdown.

The profitability is higher at 110 units in handicap races for the record, but the strike rate is lower at 27%.

Coleman seldom rides long shots. Just 12 of the runners have had SP odds of higher than 16/1. Two of them won, so excluding horses at SP odds of greater than 16/1 reduces profit. Nonetheless, it is still high at 81 units to Betfair prices and 63 units to SP.

If you’re seeking a bank building option, backing the place also works well with this system. Here are the stats:

Again, you would earn profit in all three years and have a decent strike rate. Indeed, 60% of Coleman’s rides at these four courses have been placed in 2021 so far. The longest losing streak place betting is six against a seven-bet winning streak. Indeed, Coleman had a spell of 12 places in 13 rides earlier in 2021.

What Are the Downsides?

I’ve decided to include this section for future systems to warn punters about the pitfalls. In this case, our Aidan Coleman system:

• Has relatively few wagers, though he is on course to ride more horses at these four tracks in 2021 than ever before. Even so, it means being patient and also ensures there is little opportunity to filter more.
• Has a reasonable strike rate of over 32%, but this still means long losing streaks. In the 123-bet sample, there are four spells of 6+ losses, with a maximum streak of nine. In contrast, the longest winning streak is three, which has happened four times.
• Doesn’t perform well from September to November, so you’ll have to take note of this fact. Coleman seems to excel from December to March, though his record in June is stellar the last three years.

Final Thoughts on Backing Aidan Coleman Ridden Horses

I’ve written a lot on this system, but it’s really simple to follow! Place horses ridden by Aidan Coleman on the four courses outlined on your shortlist. Make sure the conditions are suitable and decide whether to make a bet. Remember, even though it is potentially profitable, you still lose almost 70% of your bets when backing these horses to win. Bear this in mind before proceeding.  

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