Nick Mordin, author of Winning Without Thinking, claims that horse racing betting systems seldom remain profitable for more than a couple of seasons. Once you reach the third season, it is important to review your systems and make tweaks if necessary. Given the challenges we’re having finding systems that stand the test of time, there seems little doubt that Mordin is correct.
We’ve had to change and erase what were previously profitable systems because they started losing money. This can happen for various reasons. Most typically, the value leaves the room (as seen by dwindling A/E scores), or else a factor that previously made a system work has changed.
At Race Advisor, we’ll continue to try and bring you systems that win and pledge to review them regularly. This month, we check out trainers with a good record of winning with horses returning after a break.
You can see all the past mini betting systems here.
Trainers That Win with Fresh Horses Betting System Rules
- Only choose horses with between 181 and 365 days since their last run.
- Only back horses from these trainers: John Gosden, Martyn Meade, Noel Meade, Sir Mark Prescott, Sir Michael Stoute, James Tate, and Archie Watson.
- Only back horses at maximum SP odds of 9/1.
- Stick with UK races only.
The Logic
For a long time, there was a bias against horses coming back from a long layoff. It always seemed as if they required a run or two to get up to speed. However, in the modern era, trainers avail of significantly better training facilities to develop improved methods of getting horses fitter more quickly.
While it is true that many horses improve after a run, some trainers have mastered the art of getting their runners race-ready after a reasonable layoff. Even today, some punters view an absence of over 90 days as an obstacle to a horse’s fitness. Yet, it is becoming increasingly common for trainers to fare well with horses returning from a 6–12-month layoff.
After conducting some research, I found several trainers with excellent recent records. The good news is that this particular system is at least turning a profit in what is becoming a tough 2021!
The bookmakers are becoming warier of these trainers, but the A/E value remains high. I also found that these trainers did their best work with horses that are already somewhat fancied. This is why I capped the SP odds at 9/1. They have had a few winners at longer prices, but relying on such bets to win is a recipe for an even longer losing streak.
The Results
Given the likelihood of betting systems losing their edge after a few years, I decided to focus on the results since 2018.
| Bets | Wins | Strike Rate | P/L (BF) | ROI (BF) | A/E |
| 413 | 148 | 35.84% | 158.05 | 38.27% | 1.19 |
As you can see, a profit of 158 units is extremely impressive. What’s more, this particular system is maintaining its consistency for the time being. Here is a year-by-year look:
| Year | Bets | Wins | Strike Rate | P/L (BF) | ROI (BF) | A/E |
| 2018 | 106 | 43 | 40.57% | 54.8 | 51.7% | 1.28 |
| 2019 | 126 | 43 | 34.13% | 50.86 | 40.37% | 1.11 |
| 2020 | 170 | 57 | 33.53% | 41.31 | 24.73% | 1.19 |
| 2021 | 11 | 5 | 45.45% | 11.08 | 110.74% | 1.42 |
Incidentally, the profit to SP is 101.92 units, for an ROI of 24.68%.
Overall, 2020 has the worst win rate at just over 33%. This system’s best winning streak is six, which it achieved once. It has also had four consecutive winners on three occasions. The maximum losing streak is 18, which also happened once. Apart from that, it has had losing runs of 11 (once) and 10 (once).
It has also achieved a 45.72 unit profit from backing each horse to place, with a win rate of 59.81%.
Horses that also finished in the top three in their last race have a slightly higher win rate of over 41%.
You might notice that there are few wagers so far in 2021. That’s because approximately two-thirds relate to Flat races, and we’re only entering the Flat season now. There are only two National Hunt qualifiers, so it is best to ignore them.
This system has yielded a win rate of 33.33% and a Betfair ROI of 43.2% on the Flat. All-Weather horses have a win rate of almost 40% and an ROI of 30.31%.
However, Flat racing has shown a more consistent profit despite having a lower strike rate. AW horses had a loss of 6.5 units in 2019, for instance. Therefore, you might want to focus on the Flat. Here is a full overview of the statistics for Flat racing only:
| Bets | Wins | Strike Rate | P/L (BF) | ROI (BF) | A/E |
| 258 | 86 | 33.33% | 111.45 | 27.1% | 1.17 |
| Year | Bets | Wins | Strike Rate | P/L (BF) | ROI (BF) | A/E |
| 2018 | 67 | 26 | 38.81% | 32.96 | 49.19% | 1.29 |
| 2019 | 86 | 29 | 33.72% | 56.13 | 65.26% | 1.2 |
| 2020 | 102 | 29 | 28.43% | 9.64 | 9.45% | 1.02 |
| 2021 | 3 | 2 | 66.67% | 12.73 | 424.25% | 3.03 |
Last year’s performance is slightly concerning, so we’ll need to monitor it closely during the Flat season to see how it fares.
Final Thoughts on Trainers That Win with Fresh Horses
Focus on the trainers I’ve outlined in this guide to see if they can continue to produce excellent results with horses returning after a break. It seems as if 181-365 days is the optimal timeframe.
Don’t waste your money on outsiders and look at UK races only. It is also worth taking the time to see if each contender has a realistic chance of winning the race by going through Michael’s FMFR guide.
If you’d like to get the horses for every mini-system in Patrick’s Portfolio found and sent to you each day, you can register at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/patricksportfolio
