Micro-Angles – Weekend Big Race Trends

Let’s begin by having a look at some of the key trends and stats for Saturday’s big race at Ascot.

Ascot – 3:35 – Racing Welfare Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) – 1m 7 ½ f

Last years race was won by Nicky Henderson trained Brain Power who was sent off at odds of 12/1 and he’s got the ante-post favourite for this year’s renewal in Charlie Parcs. There will hopefully be 16 runners which makes it’s a good race for each way punters.

The 2009 & 2010 races were abandoned due to snow so for the purpose of this exercise I have looked at the last eight runnings of the race. These stats consist of 8 winners from 136 runners 28 placed.

Key Trends:

Age: 4 to 6-year-olds – 8 winners from 112 runners 23 placed
Odds SP: 7/1 to 25/1 – 8 winners from 96 runners 22 placed
Hurdle Wins: 2 or 3 – 8 winners from 77 runners 21 placed
Last Time Out Placing: 1st to 4th – 8 winners from 93 runners
Runs Last 90 days: 1 or 2 – 7 winners from 90 runners 22 placed

Notable Trainer Records:

The last 8 renewals of the race have been shared around by six of the top trainers – Nicky Henderson (2) Gordon Elliott (2) Harry Fry, Philip Hobbs, Dan Skelton & Alan King (1 each). Producing the following results:

8 winners from 39 runners 14 placed

So that small group of trainers has provided 100% of the winners from just 29% of the runners and 50% of the placed horses. I think there is a good chance this year’s winner will also come from one of the big yards.

2:45 – Haydock – Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 7f

This Class 2 handicap chase was won last year by the Venetia Williams trained Yala Enki who was sent off the 3/1 favourite. Both the 2009 & 2010 races were cancelled so for the purpose of this research I have looked at the last seven renewals of the contest.

These stats consist of 7 winners from 78 runners 22 placed. This year’s race will likely be run on heavy ground and it’s a decent race for trends followers

Key Trends:

Age: 6 to 8 year-olds – 7 winners from 56 runners 19 placed
Odds SP: 12/1 & under – 7 winners from 52 runners 21 placed
Days Since Last Run: 30 days or less – 7 winners from 55 runners 18 placed
Distance Move: Down 1f to Up 2f – 7 winners from 48 runners 19 placed
Last Time Out Placing: 2nd to 5th – 6 winners from 40 runners 123 placed (Last Time Out Winners – 0 wins from 11 runs 4 placed)

Notable Trainer Records:

Dr Richard Newland – 1 win from 1 runner 100% +12
David Pipe – 1 winner from 2 runners 50% +4

All that’s left is to wish you a very Happy Christmas

Until next time, be lucky.


John Burke

I have a MA in International Politics and having spent a number of years working in political campaigning but I eventually I realised that politics was not the world where I wanted to work I had been interested in horse racing since the late 1980s but in the early years I was merely just betting and watching racing like most people as a bit of fun and a hobby, then the hobby becomes a passion and that’s what happened to me with horse racing. I soon realised that to make money from my hobby I had to learn as much as I could about the sport and betting in general. The whole process took time but after a number of successful years of betting, I decided in 2011 to take the plunge, gave up my full time day job and decided to bet on horse racing as a part time business and I haven’t looked back since. I like to specialise in the better class of races and I love to solve the puzzles posed by big field handicaps the latter races often provide punters with great value betting opportunities. Whilst most of my time is spent reviewing previous races I like to keep things as simple as possible as even the biggest field handicaps can usually be pruned down to half a dozen strong contenders with the right sort of approach.
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