Let’s begin by having a look at some of the key trends and stats for Saturday’s big race at Ascot.
Ascot – 3:35 – Racing Welfare Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) – 1m 7 ½ f
Last years race was won by Nicky Henderson trained Brain Power who was sent off at odds of 12/1 and he’s got the ante-post favourite for this year’s renewal in Charlie Parcs. There will hopefully be 16 runners which makes it’s a good race for each way punters.
The 2009 & 2010 races were abandoned due to snow so for the purpose of this exercise I have looked at the last eight runnings of the race. These stats consist of 8 winners from 136 runners 28 placed.
Key Trends:
Age: 4 to 6-year-olds – 8 winners from 112 runners 23 placed
Odds SP: 7/1 to 25/1 – 8 winners from 96 runners 22 placed
Hurdle Wins: 2 or 3 – 8 winners from 77 runners 21 placed
Last Time Out Placing: 1st to 4th – 8 winners from 93 runners
Runs Last 90 days: 1 or 2 – 7 winners from 90 runners 22 placed
Notable Trainer Records:
The last 8 renewals of the race have been shared around by six of the top trainers – Nicky Henderson (2) Gordon Elliott (2) Harry Fry, Philip Hobbs, Dan Skelton & Alan King (1 each). Producing the following results:
8 winners from 39 runners 14 placed
So that small group of trainers has provided 100% of the winners from just 29% of the runners and 50% of the placed horses. I think there is a good chance this year’s winner will also come from one of the big yards.
2:45 – Haydock – Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 7f
This Class 2 handicap chase was won last year by the Venetia Williams trained Yala Enki who was sent off the 3/1 favourite. Both the 2009 & 2010 races were cancelled so for the purpose of this research I have looked at the last seven renewals of the contest.
These stats consist of 7 winners from 78 runners 22 placed. This year’s race will likely be run on heavy ground and it’s a decent race for trends followers
Key Trends:
Age: 6 to 8 year-olds – 7 winners from 56 runners 19 placed
Odds SP: 12/1 & under – 7 winners from 52 runners 21 placed
Days Since Last Run: 30 days or less – 7 winners from 55 runners 18 placed
Distance Move: Down 1f to Up 2f – 7 winners from 48 runners 19 placed
Last Time Out Placing: 2nd to 5th – 6 winners from 40 runners 123 placed (Last Time Out Winners – 0 wins from 11 runs 4 placed)
Notable Trainer Records:
Dr Richard Newland – 1 win from 1 runner 100% +12
David Pipe – 1 winner from 2 runners 50% +4
All that’s left is to wish you a very Happy Christmas
Until next time, be lucky.
John
