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Micro-Angles – Fergal O’Brien Novice Hurdlers October & November

Photo of John Burke John BurkeOctober 4, 2017
327 1 minute read

horse racing

Fergal O’Brien –

Now, I am more of handicap man myself and staying handicap chasers. I tend to stay away from novice hurdle races, particularly at this time of year but I was taken with the record of trainer Fergal O’Brien in such races.

Since 2012 he has had 11 winners from 57 runners –

Strike Rate 19%

SP Profit -5.66

26 placed

Place Strike Rate 46%

A/E 1.13

Looking at those runners having their debut over hurdles or had one start over the smaller obstacles he has had 9 winners from 36 runners –

Strike Rate 25%

SP Profit +11.34

A/E 1.67

14 placed

Place Strike Rate 42%

If you ignore any of his runners going off at an SP above 16/1 he has had 9 winners from 22 runners –

Strike Rate 41%

SP Profit +25.34

(profit to Betfair SP + 38.17)

A/E 1.84

13 placed

Place Strike Rate 59%.

Here is the qualifying criterion for this micro angle:

Trainer: Fergal O’Brien
Months: October & November only
Race Type: Novice Hurdles
Runs Over Hurdles: 0 to 1
Odds SP: 16/1 & under.

Photo of John Burke John BurkeOctober 4, 2017
327 1 minute read
Photo of John Burke

John Burke

I have a MA in International Politics and having spent a number of years working in political campaigning but I eventually I realised that politics was not the world where I wanted to work I had been interested in horse racing since the late 1980s but in the early years I was merely just betting and watching racing like most people as a bit of fun and a hobby, then the hobby becomes a passion and that’s what happened to me with horse racing. I soon realised that to make money from my hobby I had to learn as much as I could about the sport and betting in general. The whole process took time but after a number of successful years of betting, I decided in 2011 to take the plunge, gave up my full time day job and decided to bet on horse racing as a part time business and I haven’t looked back since. I like to specialise in the better class of races and I love to solve the puzzles posed by big field handicaps the latter races often provide punters with great value betting opportunities. Whilst most of my time is spent reviewing previous races I like to keep things as simple as possible as even the biggest field handicaps can usually be pruned down to half a dozen strong contenders with the right sort of approach.
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