Micro-Angles – Jockeys for Courses and Distances

Following on from previous articles, I have got some more micro angles and horses that have traditionally done well in the first few months of the winter jumps season. But like last week I will start by looking at two jockeys on all-weather who seem to excel at a certain track and distance. For the purpose of this research, I have looked at handicap races only and focused on the jockey’s records during the winter months from November to March.

Luke Morris at Kempton

Champion all-weather jockey Luke Morris has had 33 winners from 326 rides 10% -121.94 A/E 0.74 108 places 33% at Kempton since 2014. But if you add a couple logical filters such as price and distance then a different picture emerges.

Track: Kempton
Race Type: Handicaps only
Race Distance 1m 3f to 1m 4f only
Odds SP: 16/1 & under

Since 2014 he’s had-

15 winners from 59 runners

Strike Rate 25%

SP Profit +31.98

A/E 1.44 (profit to Betfair SP +43.33)

31 placed

Place Strike Rate 53%

Pat Cosgrave at Kempton

The jockey tends to spend his winters in Dubai but he can usually be relied on to have a have a few winners on the all-weather before the turn of the year. Since 2014 his overall record in Kempton handicaps is 14 winners from 91 runners 15% +48 (profit to Betfair SP +105.46) 27 placed 30%. But if you look at his record in such races over a mile he has had-

8 winners from 25 runners

Strike Rate 32%

SP Profit +66

A/E 1.85 (profit to Betfair SP +113.44)

14 placed

Place Strike Rate 56%.

Trainer Micro Angle – All Weather – The Quick Returnees

The horse returning within 7 days of their last run and going on to win and the trainers who excel at it, is an area worth further research and here I have a trainer who has the knack of getting horses to win that were running within 7 days of their last run. This is just one of the trainers who will be featuring in my next article for SmartSigger magazine where I will be looking at trainers and quick return horses in more detail.

Michael Easterby

Since the start of 2014 has shown that he is adept with quick returning horses on the all-weather, having had-

11 winners from 35 runners

SP Profit +25.16

A/E 1.57 (profit to Betfair SP +31)

20 placed

Place Strike Rate 57%.

All the above runners ran in handicaps and it’s clear that any of his runners returning within 7 days of their last run need to be kept on side.

John Burke

I have a MA in International Politics and having spent a number of years working in political campaigning but I eventually I realised that politics was not the world where I wanted to work I had been interested in horse racing since the late 1980s but in the early years I was merely just betting and watching racing like most people as a bit of fun and a hobby, then the hobby becomes a passion and that’s what happened to me with horse racing. I soon realised that to make money from my hobby I had to learn as much as I could about the sport and betting in general. The whole process took time but after a number of successful years of betting, I decided in 2011 to take the plunge, gave up my full time day job and decided to bet on horse racing as a part time business and I haven’t looked back since. I like to specialise in the better class of races and I love to solve the puzzles posed by big field handicaps the latter races often provide punters with great value betting opportunities. Whilst most of my time is spent reviewing previous races I like to keep things as simple as possible as even the biggest field handicaps can usually be pruned down to half a dozen strong contenders with the right sort of approach.
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