Following on from previous articles, I have got some more micro angles and horses that have traditionally done well in the first few months of the winter jumps season. But like last week I will start by looking at two jockeys on all-weather who seem to excel at a certain track and distance. For the purpose of this research, I have looked at handicap races only and focused on the jockey’s records during the winter months from November to March.
Luke Morris at Kempton
Champion all-weather jockey Luke Morris has had 33 winners from 326 rides 10% -121.94 A/E 0.74 108 places 33% at Kempton since 2014. But if you add a couple logical filters such as price and distance then a different picture emerges.
Track: Kempton
Race Type: Handicaps only
Race Distance 1m 3f to 1m 4f only
Odds SP: 16/1 & under
Since 2014 he’s had-
15 winners from 59 runners
Strike Rate 25%
SP Profit +31.98
A/E 1.44 (profit to Betfair SP +43.33)
31 placed
Place Strike Rate 53%
Pat Cosgrave at Kempton
The jockey tends to spend his winters in Dubai but he can usually be relied on to have a have a few winners on the all-weather before the turn of the year. Since 2014 his overall record in Kempton handicaps is 14 winners from 91 runners 15% +48 (profit to Betfair SP +105.46) 27 placed 30%. But if you look at his record in such races over a mile he has had-
8 winners from 25 runners
Strike Rate 32%
SP Profit +66
A/E 1.85 (profit to Betfair SP +113.44)
14 placed
Place Strike Rate 56%.
Trainer Micro Angle – All Weather – The Quick Returnees
The horse returning within 7 days of their last run and going on to win and the trainers who excel at it, is an area worth further research and here I have a trainer who has the knack of getting horses to win that were running within 7 days of their last run. This is just one of the trainers who will be featuring in my next article for SmartSigger magazine where I will be looking at trainers and quick return horses in more detail.
Michael Easterby
Since the start of 2014 has shown that he is adept with quick returning horses on the all-weather, having had-
11 winners from 35 runners
SP Profit +25.16
A/E 1.57 (profit to Betfair SP +31)
20 placed
Place Strike Rate 57%.
All the above runners ran in handicaps and it’s clear that any of his runners returning within 7 days of their last run need to be kept on side.
