Micro-Angles – Profile Horse & Jockeys and Trainers To Note

This week’s horse in profile is the Venetia Williams trained chaser Otago Trail. The 9-year-old has yet to make his seasonal reappearance but did win on his first start of last season when beating Bristol De Mai to land the 3m Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle 12 months ago before ending his season in February when winning 3m handicap chase at Sandown. Connections were thinking about a possible tilt at the Grand National this year which could explain his lack of entries at present.

Despite almost reaching veteran status he has only had 10 starts over fences, winning four of them and placing on four other occasions. He will start the season 5lb higher than for his last win on a career-high mark of 156. Still, he is an unexposed horse in handicap chases for whom the going is very important, as his three best performances according to Racing Post Rating’s (RPR’s) have come on soft or heavy ground. Indeed his career record on such going in handicap chases is –

4 wins from 5 runs

SP Profit +15.2

5 placed with form figures 11121.

This is very useful handicap chaser who could defy his career high mark this season when he gets his favoured going and could easily be a Grand National horse!

Jockey’s and Trainers To Note

The Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy partnership must be the best in Ireland at present. In the past 90 days the pair has combined for:

32 winners from 76 runners

Strike Rate 42%

SP Profit +53.9

A/E 1.38

Chi 4.73

Exp/Wins 23.26 (profit to BSP +208.94)

46 placed

Place Strike Rate 61%

An excellent strike rate, a good profit and yet offering punters plenty of value. The profit to backing all his runners to BSP has been helped by a handful of big priced winners but I wish I had backed all their runners.

The market will, of course, be adjusting to their success but there could still be some decent profits to be made in the coming weeks when they pair up. There certainly should be plenty of winners, especially as Jack Kennedy will, injuries permitting, be aiming for Champion Jockey title in Ireland.

Seeing jockey Paddy Brennan winning yet another chase winner at Ludlow early this week got me looking at his record at the track over fences. There is no jockey who rides the chase course better than Paddy for me.

Since 2014 he has had –

17 winners from 45 runners

Strike Rate 37%

SP Profit +30.27

A/E 1.79

Chi 7.44

Exp/Wins 9.51 (profit to BSP +33.36)

34 placed

Place Strike Rate 74%

If you fancy a horse over fences at Ludlow and Brennan is booked that is a major positive for your selections chance and you are also getting a jockey who is performing 79% better than the market expects.

John Burke

I have a MA in International Politics and having spent a number of years working in political campaigning but I eventually I realised that politics was not the world where I wanted to work I had been interested in horse racing since the late 1980s but in the early years I was merely just betting and watching racing like most people as a bit of fun and a hobby, then the hobby becomes a passion and that’s what happened to me with horse racing. I soon realised that to make money from my hobby I had to learn as much as I could about the sport and betting in general. The whole process took time but after a number of successful years of betting, I decided in 2011 to take the plunge, gave up my full time day job and decided to bet on horse racing as a part time business and I haven’t looked back since. I like to specialise in the better class of races and I love to solve the puzzles posed by big field handicaps the latter races often provide punters with great value betting opportunities. Whilst most of my time is spent reviewing previous races I like to keep things as simple as possible as even the biggest field handicaps can usually be pruned down to half a dozen strong contenders with the right sort of approach.
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