This week’s horse in profile is the Venetia Williams trained chaser Otago Trail. The 9-year-old has yet to make his seasonal reappearance but did win on his first start of last season when beating Bristol De Mai to land the 3m Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle 12 months ago before ending his season in February when winning 3m handicap chase at Sandown. Connections were thinking about a possible tilt at the Grand National this year which could explain his lack of entries at present.
Despite almost reaching veteran status he has only had 10 starts over fences, winning four of them and placing on four other occasions. He will start the season 5lb higher than for his last win on a career-high mark of 156. Still, he is an unexposed horse in handicap chases for whom the going is very important, as his three best performances according to Racing Post Rating’s (RPR’s) have come on soft or heavy ground. Indeed his career record on such going in handicap chases is –
4 wins from 5 runs
SP Profit +15.2
5 placed with form figures 11121.
This is very useful handicap chaser who could defy his career high mark this season when he gets his favoured going and could easily be a Grand National horse!
Jockey’s and Trainers To Note
The Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy partnership must be the best in Ireland at present. In the past 90 days the pair has combined for:
32 winners from 76 runners
Strike Rate 42%
SP Profit +53.9
A/E 1.38
Chi 4.73
Exp/Wins 23.26 (profit to BSP +208.94)
46 placed
Place Strike Rate 61%
An excellent strike rate, a good profit and yet offering punters plenty of value. The profit to backing all his runners to BSP has been helped by a handful of big priced winners but I wish I had backed all their runners.
The market will, of course, be adjusting to their success but there could still be some decent profits to be made in the coming weeks when they pair up. There certainly should be plenty of winners, especially as Jack Kennedy will, injuries permitting, be aiming for Champion Jockey title in Ireland.
Seeing jockey Paddy Brennan winning yet another chase winner at Ludlow early this week got me looking at his record at the track over fences. There is no jockey who rides the chase course better than Paddy for me.
Since 2014 he has had –
17 winners from 45 runners
Strike Rate 37%
SP Profit +30.27
A/E 1.79
Chi 7.44
Exp/Wins 9.51 (profit to BSP +33.36)
34 placed
Place Strike Rate 74%
If you fancy a horse over fences at Ludlow and Brennan is booked that is a major positive for your selections chance and you are also getting a jockey who is performing 79% better than the market expects.
