Hi all,
Last weekend saw the first big handicap races of the winter jump season with the BetVictor Gold Cup, I can remember when the race was called the ‘Mackeson’ Gold Cup, and the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle. Between now and Christmas there seems to be a big handicap every Saturday. Over the past two weeks, I gave you a couple of ante-post selections for those big races. Last week I put up Starchitect at 10/1 for the BetVictor Gold Cup. He ran a great race in finishing second beaten just a neck at the line, on ground that would have been soft enough for him, and if he had jumped the final two fences as well as the winner I think he would have won.
The previous week I put up the Harry Fry-trained Misterton as an each way ante-post bet at 20/1 for the Greatwood Hurdle. This is what I wrote about his chances in my ante-post section:
“The recent Chepstow winner had his form very much franked by the win of Elgin in a valuable handicap hurdle at Ascot last Saturday. The 20/1 about his chance in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham looks a fair bit of value now and if he does go to post for the race he won’t be anything like that price on the day and looks worth an each way bet”.
The result was another 2nd placing on Sunday, with the selection just losing out, ironically to Elgin, and like Starchitect he was only beaten a neck at the finish. Still, if you did back him each way at 20’s you came out of the race nicely in profit.
As ever let’s begin by looking at a couple of trainers whose runners are worth noting in a week or so.
Here are two trainers whose runners in handicaps are worth noting in the coming week or so. One for the jumps and one for the all-weather:
Philip Hobbs – Since 2014 Philip Hobbs has had –
26 winners from 127 runners
Strike rate 20%
SP Profit +51.5
A/E 1.26 (profit to BSP +89.13)
56 placed
Place Strike Rate 44%
in handicap races in the two week period (14 days) either side of today’s date (21/11).
A decent set of stats there from a good sample size but how can we improve on this? If we focus in on his runners that had one run in the past 90 days and he has had –
15 winners from 52 runners
Strike Rate 29%
SP Profit +63
A/E 1.78 (profit to BSP +93.48)
21 placed
Place Strike Rate 40%
N.B Philip Hobbs handicap runners who had one run in the past 90 days.
Tom Dascombe – Has had –
11 winners from 36 runners
Strike Rate 31%
SP Profit +35.25
A/E 2.38 (profit to BSP +47.74)
16 placed
Place Strike Rate 44%
in all-weather handicap races in the two week period (14 days) either side of today’s date (21/11).
Those stats mean you can blindly back all the trainer’s runners in handicaps at this time of year and make a solid profit and is 1 win from 1 run in 2017, courtesy of Arcanada’s win at Lingfield last Saturday. You could ‘slice n dice’ a bit further if you so wished, as he’s 1 win from 6 runners -2.25 3 placed with his 2-year-olds and 0 wins from 3 runners -3 1 placed with his runners racing beyond a mile.
N.B Tom Dascombe handicap runners
