Autumn National Hunt Horses
Following on from Blue Kascade, Thomas Brown and Tenor Nivernais in previous weeks I have another horse who seems at his best in the early part of the season. This week it’s the Oliver Sherwood trained chaser Milgen Bay.
Milgen Bay – Oliver Sherwood
The 11- year-old has a career record of –
9 wins from 50 runs
Strike Rate 18%
SP Profit -9.08
21 placed
Place Strike Rate 42%
but he does seem to have a bit of a preference for October & November. In those two months, he had
5 wins from 14 runs
Strike Rate 36%
SP Profit +14.2
9 placed
Place Strike Rate 64%
He has tended to need his seasonal reappearance but his record having had at least 1 run in the past 90 days is –
5 wins from 10 runs
Strike Rate 50%
SP Profit +18.2
7 placed
Place Strike Rate 70%
and it’s worth noting all those wins have come in single digit fields. He starts the season on a 7lb lower mark than for his last win at Towcester in November 2016. I am sure his trainer will find another winning opportunity for the gelding in the next couple of months.
Identity Thief – Henry De Bromhead
The Henry De Bromhead trained the seven-year-old was just below the best over hurdles, he won his first two starts over fences last season and was expected to become a top-class novice chaser but his form nosedived in the latter part of the season. All six of his career wins have come between October to December with
6 wins from 8 runs
Strike Rate 75%
SP Profit +33.21
and indeed he is
5 wins from 5 runs
Strike Rate 100%
SP Profit +33.46
in October & November and he has won first time up in the last three season. His record in the second half of the season is 0 wins from 9 runs 3 placed. He looks one to back on his seasonal reappearance and one to avoid later in the season.
Until next time be lucky.
John
