Lucky 7 Naps is a tipster service provided by a chap called Michael (not our own Race Advisor, Michael) and is available through Bet Kudos.
Here’s the link to the webpage advertising this service
Michael claims an average of 50 points profit per week since August 2012. His tips have been proofed by Bet Kudos since Feb 2014 and up to Aug 2014 produced a profit of 1,487 points which roughly averages to 53 points a week.
This is a pretty mouth-watering profit, although from the above you can easily see that a large proportion of this profit (44%) was achieved in August 2014 alone. The purpose of this review is to see how the tipping service has fared since then.
Michael concentrates on races with 7 or less runners, which is an interesting strategy in that it clearly increases the chance of finding winners, compared to races with larger fields. His tips are purely back to win bets and are available online in the members’ area and by email to subscribers. Weekly, 28-day and 90-day subscriptions are available for £34.20, £79.20, & £160.20 (all including vat)
From the results published by Bet Kudos for Lucky 7 Naps, it looks like the success has continued since the sales copy was written last year.
Here at RaceAdvisor.co.uk we have been monitoring results since the 1st Feb 2014.
There have been 4,991 bets with 1,229 winning selections giving a strike rate of 25%. The Lucky 7 Naps advice includes advised stakes and advised odds. If you place your bets quickly upon receiving the tips, you can probably get the Advised Odds. The advised stakes are usually £5 but sometimes the advice has been to only stake £3. Sometimes more than one selection per race is advised.
However, at SP, the results have not been good:
So should we reject Lucky 7 Naps as a tipster to follow? By looking at results using Betfair SP, the Advised Odds and Bookie odds we can see that there is a significant difference from simple SP results.
Here’s an expanded record of results using SP, Betfair SP, Advised Odds and Bookie Best Odds Guaranteed. All profits and losses are rounded to the nearest pound.
| SP | Betfair SP | Advised Odds | BOG | ||||||||
| Flat Stakes £1 | -£414 | -8% | -£116 | -2% | £1,036 | 21% | £1,186 | 25% | |||
| Advised Stakes | -£1,967 | -8% | -£615 | -3% | £4,793 | 20% | £5,506 | 23% | |||
Waiting towards the off time, it is clear that the odds reduce, on average, giving an overall loss at SP.
But if bets are placed when the advice is published, a clear profit can be made either by taking the Advised Odds or those same odds from a BOG bookmaker.
Interestingly most of Michael’s advised stakes are £5 and we can see a slightly better profit is obtainable by placing all bets at flat £5 stakes as opposed to his advised stakes:
| SP | Betfair SP | Advised Odds | BOG | ||||||||
| Profit | ROI | Profit | ROI | Profit | ROI | Profit | ROI | ||||
| Flat Stakes £5 | -£2,071 | -8% | -£582 | -2% | £5,181 | 21% | £5,928 | 25% | |||
So the trick with these tips is to get a back bet on as quickly as possible after receiving the tips.
Taking the BOG results, I have analysed that there is a 25% strike rate. At those odds the break-even strike rate required is 20%. So therein lies the flat stake profit margin. The Bookmaker Best Odds Guaranteed average odds of the selections are 7.25, which is quite high, so Michael clearly doesn’t advise short-priced selections in these seven-horse races. The average odds of the winners are 4.99. The longest sequence of winners was 5 and the longest losing run was 27 (in Oct 2014) so patience is required to get through a losing run like that.
I can recommend Lucky 7 Naps, and would rate the service as “good”, but would advise testing for a while, to make sure you can get close to the Advised Odds on the selections as you must get these to make a profit from this service.
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It’s impossible to make the 50 pts per week profits claimed.
For a start you need to be up with the larks to get the advised odds, and even then you will be lucky if they are still available when you place a bet.
………”From the results published by Bet Kudos for Lucky 7 Naps, it looks like the success has continued since the sales copy was written last year.”………
You also can’t go by the Kudos ‘proofed’ results. As with all these proofing sites, they don’t take into account R4/NonRunner/withdrawals which occur throughout the day.
As the advised odds are out so early, I found that I’d often be lucky to get half the advised odds after withdrawals, especially since I’m not ‘up with the larks’
I’ve seen winners proofed at e.g. 25pts profit where I’ve only made around 10pts. That is a huge difference.
In the last month or so, I’ve gone from a bank high of around + 150pts to – 75pts. 225pt downward swing in one month.
Proofed results for the same period show a loss of approx -175pts so there’s a 50pt difference even on a bad run…… make of that what you will.
I’ve been with Bet Kudos for a year or so and my experience is that ,after an initial large profit in August last year my bank has remained virtually the same. The tips arrive anytime between 5-0am and 9-0am…..never at a regular time. This means you have to be able to bet anytime between these hours. I usuallyget my bets within minutes or , at most, an hour within receipt. It’s nevertheless virtually impossible to get all the prices advised and often I don’t get any of them. The claims made are equivalent to VW and exhaust emissions.. You also need to have an account with all the bookmakers since often the one advised for the price given is the only one offering that price.
I am just about to give up on them.
Thank you for letting us know your experience John. Could I confirm if this is specifically for Lucky 7 Naps or is it for the Bet Kudos fee tips?
I agree with both of the above comments. I was a member for several months and realised quickly that the advised profits were simply not available 9 out of 10 times when the advice came through. My biggest issue though is as Paul mentions above:
“You also can’t go by the Kudos ‘proofed’ results. As with all these proofing sites, they don’t take into account R4/NonRunner/withdrawals which occur throughout the day.”
There is a declaration on the site to this effect, but we all know that the figures needed are those that can be achieved, i.e. after commissions and all deductions, anything else is simply useless for properly managed betting. Bet Kudos over-hype the services they offer and could do themselves and their services a big favour by insisting that results are reported accurately. I have noticed a couple of managed services floating around recently that proof to BSP – this is a major step in the right direction.
P.S. I’m one of the many punters that has a big issue with over-hyping of services, simply because I take my betting seriously and need accurate information. I don’t take kindly to anyone who promotes aggressively or inaccurately, and nearly always end up blocking their emails.
I’ve tried this service on two different occasions once last year and again the beginning of this year both times for 3 months. The one thing I can tell you that is consistent is you will blow your bank with this service! January this year I made 150points profit from the advice in one day and still ended the month at a loss! The trouble is they send odds that are not attainable, they may have been available at some point but on a lot of days they will send out 10+ bets a day and by the time you gone though all of them you won’t get all the advised prices. This service will find some big price winners but it’s not uncommon to have 50+ loosing bets in a row before finding a winner. So even at£1 per point you need to be prepared to loose over £250 before you may get a winner! I’ve tried a lot of services across all the Betfan platforms and I would advise anyone to give them all careful consideration before joining. I’ve just to find one that will even cover the subscription for a decent period of time. They all send out tips for the sake of tipping even on a poor days racing where you shouldn’t bet they seem to still send out tips. A lot of services will have a bad run and then send out a lot of max bets at 5 points on odds on shots that any mug could pick out just to make there proffing look better. I myself will never use another of their services and have found that I actually have better success with my own selections that any of there tipsters. Without a doubt though I would avoid lucky7naps unless you like to loose money!!!!
I also have looked at all these websites run by Bet Fan,and all their tipsters are worthless,,unless you can get a tipster that is profing to BSP its just a total waste of time,because as you all realize you can never get the odds that they advertise,the only person getting this is the person sending out the tips,,my tip to everyone is dont waste your money,OH and by the way another big rip of merchant out their is a site called Horsetips4u,i have paper traded his Secret Horses and also Textawinner,,you will lose big time with this crook so stay well away from this guy as well,,and to be honest ive yet to find a single tipster who delivers,,good luck.
Hi,
I have also had experience of Lucky7Naps, and I can confirm that I did make money. However I decided to discontinue following the service, mainly because in the period or just a few weeks I had two bookmakers accounts shut down, apparently due to betting patterns. In both case’s I had not actually won a lot of money from them, in fact I was up £5.43 with one them over the previous 30 days!!
As for the service itself, unfortunately the proofed results provided by Bet Kudos (Betfan), are pure fantasy, and are totally unachievable, for several reason’s. Despite getting up at stupid O’clock, to await the arrival of selections, it is very often impossible to get the advised odds. The biggest issue in my opinion are the R4’s, of which there are a huge amount due to placing bets so early, and unfortunately are not reflected in the Betfan proofed results. The difference not obtaining the advised odds, and the R4’s makes cannot be overstated.
I have monitored results for the last few months, I according to my findings Lucky7Naps has actually made a loss to BFSP odd’s, and if you can’t follow this service with Betfair, there is no long term further for it. Yes you may make some short term profit’s, but ultimately you could finish up with no bookmakers account’s!!
Ultimately, the combination of lack of sleep, and lack of bookmaker accounts, makes it impossible for me to recommend Lucky7Naps I am afraid. A shame as I know some of the Guy’s at Betfan, and they are totally genuine and strive to offer fully proofed product’s. Unfortunately their way of showing results without taking R4 deductions into account is a serious problem, which they will acknowledge and are looking to resolve. In their defense, they offer the facility on the results pages to look at the P/L based on various format’s, SP, BFSP etc, and I would recommend checking these before deciding to subscribe, particularly the BFSP return’s, as for any service to have a long term future it has to be profitable to BFSP in my opinion. However, until the R4 issue is resolved they will remain severely inaccurate, as I suspect all of the service’s offered use the advised odd’s format.
Thanks for the feedback, folks.
Like I said in my review, the key is whether one can get close to the Advised Odds.
Real time feedback from users is invaluable compared to statistical analysis, which can only go so far.
I think the problem highlighted in the comments is true of many Tipster services. What I will try to do in my reviews is to indicate how narrow or broad the opportunity for profit is.
Classic example yesterday Southwell 2.20.
Youm Jamil won, advised at odds of 14/1. Vexilllum also declared for this race , but as it ran the day before, pretty safe to assume it would be withdrawn from this one, which it was.
I managed to get only 17/2 and eventually got BOG price of 8/1.
Now, an 8/1 winner is not to be sniffed at, but absolutely nowhere near the 14/1 which it will be proofed at.