Knowledge Bank

Cluster Theory: What is it, and Can You Use it to Win in Horse Racing?

Written by Patrick Lynch I was recently back in my hometown. There I spent a rain-soaked Friday afternoon in a local bar watching the racing with my brother. Towards the end of the evening, he noted that all seven favourites had won at Southwell. It isn’t in itself an unusual circumstance, although only 35.12% of favourites have won at UK…

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Do Horses with Handicap Hikes Offer Profitability?

In horse racing circles, there is a suggestion that horses with handicap hikes can bring profit if running soon after their last performance. The theory is that a second quick outing means the horse is ‘well in’ their current rating before the revised one takes hold. Indeed, you may see a note on a race card that shows this information.…

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Developing Statistical Models of Horse Racing Outcomes Using R

Originally published in SmartSigger, this is a complete guide to using R in horse racing to build statistical horse racing systems. A 58 page guide that is not available anywhere else. Whilst the examples now use an older version of R, if you’re interested in developing your own statistical horse racing models, you can download R for free here, and…

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Laying the Favourite – Profitable or Pointless?

One of the best things about the Betfair Exchange, or any betting exchange for that matter, is the ability to place ‘lay’ bets. Prior to this innovation, all that most punters could do is ‘back’ an outcome they fancied, rather than making money by opposing a specific horse. Today, you have the chance to make money by ‘laying’ favourites that…

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Bad Each-Way Races (and how to use them!)

Written by Eddie Lloyd Bad each-way races are where a bookie has no choice but to offer an over broke book on the place market of an each-way bet. Savvy punters have been exploiting this loop hole for years, and it’s proved harder and harder to get on these races with any sizeable bet, as it becomes more common knowledge…

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How to Understand the ‘Weird’ Ratings on Your Race Advisor Racecard

Written by Patrick Lynch As a Race Advisor Pro member, you have access to arguably the most sophisticated horse racing software on the market, and also have more information than can easily be digested in a single sitting. In Winning Without Thinking, Nick Mordin asserts that the greatest asset one can have when trying to pick winning horses is time. He’s…

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Creating Micro-Systems From Changes In Racing

Researched by Patrick Lynch The trouble with horse racing betting systems is that we’re never sure if and when a change to the sport will affect them. The average punter is guilty of completely ignoring external events in the mistaken belief they have no impact. This is an illogical conclusion. It is hard to believe that a different approach to…

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Turn Into A Betting Ninja With Micro Betting Systems

I normally eschew nonsensical ‘salesy’ type titles. In this case, however, I feel it is appropriate to the content. Ninjas are known for having the ability to silently sneak in and out, completing their objective without anyone realising until it is too late. You can be the betting equivalent of a ninja when you create the right micro betting systems…

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Horses To Follow On The Flat in 2019

The flat racing season is now in full swing. At the time of writing the Guineas meetings in England, France and Ireland have concluded and we have just had the Derby meetings in England France. With Royal Ascot just around the corner there is plenty to look forward to in the rest of the season, and now that we have…

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How to Use the Monte Carlo Method in Horse Racing

Monte Carlo is synonymous with casinos and betting, so it is hardly a surprise that there is a formula named after the place. When wagering on any sport, there are a remarkable number of factors to consider. In horse racing, for example, you have to account for the Going, the track, number of runners, the horse’s OR, whether it is…

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Finding In Form Trainers

For obvious reasons, Trainers are an important element when looking for winners in racing. They’re instrumental in preparing a horse to be at its fittest and keeping it well and ready to race. They, with connections, also decide upon where the horse is best suited to run. With so many variables surrounding the outcome of a race the trainer themselves…

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Profiting From Early Pace: A Back To Lay Strategy

More than a decade ago I developed a formula to produce what I termed ‘pace ratings’ for all UK and Irish flat races. These ratings were based on the information contained in race readers published reports about how a horse had performed in a race (termed ‘comments in running’). The useful thing about these comments is that professional race readers…

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How to Construct Tissue Odds

Being able to create a tissue is a very important element of making a profit from your betting, yet it’s an element which most bettors never consider. With that in mind, this article will show you how to create your own tissue odds using a very simple process. Our example race is a 7 runner handicap over hurdles. To begin…

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Creating A Betting Bank

One of the most important factors to successful betting is determining what size bank to use and then the continual management of that bank. Understanding the relationship between losing streaks and the odds at which we bet is the first place to start. For example, if we were to bet at average odds of 9/1 then we would expect a…

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Knowledge Bank

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